Quinnipiac statewide polls (OH, PA, FL) to be released tomorrow. Number of media outlets are reporting the following:
FL: 43-43, Clinton*
PA: 48-39, Clinton
OH: 44-42, Clinton
Survey was of likely voters and included Stein and Johnson.
*Shades of “Harvard beats Yale!”
Particuarly easy if he has some e-mails she actually sent. Just upload a few hundred legitimate ones, with two or three incriminating fake sentences sprinkled in here or there.
WTF are you talking about? RickJay was wondering aloud about how it sure would be easy for Assange and Trump to work together to fake up a bunch of emails.
I’d like to see Florida higher.
Doesn’t it already have enough meth and cocaine?
It’s for RickJay to say, but I’m not reading anything in that post suggesting Trump would lend a hand. (Who would want Trump’s input on any important project, anyway?)
I saw yesterday that 14% of those polled in Utah said they’d vote for Romney (who wasn’t a choice - it was spontaneous.) If they go with this new guy (who is a Mormon and whose hq is in SLC) he might have a shot.
Oh, no? …not even these bits:
And it’s part of the public record that Assange timed the release to damage Clinton so no, I don’t think it’s some coincidence.
Updated on 538 at about 9am:
Polls-Plus: C 74.9-T 25.1
Polls Only: C 84.7-T 15.3
Now Cast: C 86.3- T 13.7
Come on America! You’re supposed to be shifting *away *from the rotting orange!
Clinton has Obama’s recent history on her side, but a deeper analysis into the data suggests that Trump will probably hang with her to the end there in the Sunshine state. I don’t have time to fetch it but NYT had some good stats that really put a lot of the data into perspective. They looked at white college educated voters for Romney, white non-degree holders voting for Romney, and also the number of crossover voters. Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, PA, NH…the data would seem to indicate that Trump is not going to do particularly well in these states unless there’s something dramatic that happens to Clinton. Florida, however, was a different story. Now Clinton probably won’t blow Trump out of the water in many of these states. Could be 2-4 percentage points, but she’ll win across the big boards, I’m guessing.
The Khan thing is starting to settle, and we have got to give it a day or two for “hey, lets just assassinate people we don’t want” to sink in.
I think Trump, or his minions, absolutely WOULD lend a hand, yes. As noted, Tru
I must point out that this is a guy who yesterday suggested that someone should shoot Hillary Clinton to death. If you think I’m going to put faking some emails past him, you gotta be kidding. I believe Trump is willing to do anything.
Why would there be any doubt that a man that would present a fake press agent would even hesitate to present fake press?
But Assange’s whole identity is wrapped in leaking actual documents. If it was discovered he helped fake up and release forgeries it would be the end of wikileaks and his claim to fame. So suggesting that scenario is a little silly.
Assange apparently doesn’t like Hillary so sure he’ll release something damaging if he can, but I don’t think he likes Trump a whole lot either and he isn’t necessarily trying to help Trump. I’m sure if he had dirt on Trump he’d release that too.
I can think of any number of reasons he’d be willing to up the ante. A rich guy could provide him millions of reasons.
Assange has a history of editing documents and videos and such to maximize their political impact. A little creative writing is not beyond him.
Yeah, imagining stuff is fun but I still think it’s ridiculous to think Assange is going to actually give up his hero/rebel/martyr status and his voice on the world stage for a bag of silver. But this is really a hijack of this thread so I’ll drop it now.
I agree. There may be a misunderstanding here: I certainly never suggested that Trump would balk at faking emails. What I was saying is that anyone wanting to torpedo Clinton/help Trump would be unwise to let Trump take an actual role in the fakery–he would leave his fingerprints all over the project. He’s not smart enough to come up with plausible damaging inventions or smart enough to know where to insert the damaging inventions.
He’d screw it up. I was suggesting that it’s more likely that Putin would offer some well-crafted fakes (in aid of Trump) than that Roger Stone would say to Assange ‘we’d like you use some of Mr. Trump’s ideas.’
Not that it matters, other than that the more people are aware of this possibility, the better protection that awareness will offer to wavering independents who might otherwise be taken in, if and when faked emails are presented.
Speaking of awareness, here’s a New Republic story addressing the “October surprise from Assange” theory, though without explicit discussion of the potential for fakery: https://newrepublic.com/minutes/135932/roger-stone-julian-assange-cahoots-hillary-clinton-prepare-october-surprise
The promise of ‘fixing things’ so that he could finally leave the Ecuadorian Embassy would probably have been dangled in front of Assange.
Of course anyone depending on Trump to keep a promise is probably already living in a river in Egypt, but desperation is desperation. Assange not only knows Hillary won’t fix things with the Swedish authorities, but ‘knows’ that she will go after him and after WikiLeaks:
Yeah. Whatever integrity he may have had at one point has been compromised again and again. And he believes himself righteous. That’s a recipe for shenanigans justified by that age-old excuse “the ends justify the means.”
longroom.com, which also said that Mitt was leading the polls if you “unskewed” them (whatever that means), has Trump leading.
https://www.longroom.com/polls/#polling-infometrics