I probably agree with you about the ground game (although, perhaps her advantage there is overblown), and Trump has an excellent chance of sticking his foot in his mouth, but I’m curious about this point. Do you think Bill, Obama, and Biden have not been campaigning hard for her up to this point? I sort of figured whatever advantage they bestowed was already baked into the polls at this point.
White supremacism? I doubt that will be prevalent.
Well you are indeed what I also think is going on, that a very significant part of the support for Trump is coming from chaotic neutrals that do want to see things fall apart or to change just because.
Problem is that while you think that it would be interesting the point is that a Trump presidency will be costly for all, including you.
It will be more prevalent than otherwise – white supremacist group recruitment and public involvement has gone way, way up since the rise of Trump. Trump himself gained prominence by pushing a white supremacist conspiracy theory (birtherism).
Cite? I know Clinton said something about this once, but I never caught her source. Please let it be from somewhere other than SPLC.
The reality is that the supremacists will not get all what they want, but they will abuse their power based on what they think the new laws and orders will be about. It will also help their confidence on how much they can get away with when they will have a more conservative court that will support laws that on the surface sound fair but are designed to hurt minorities and women.
In the environmental front it will hurt us all.
Well Bill has a lot of free time but Obama and Biden are probably kinda busy with their day jobs. I suspect both of them will really turn it on in the final few weeks.
What I am really counting on is the combination of a data-driven ground operation and the diverse array of surrogates that Hillary can call on: both Obamas, Bill, Biden, Bernie, Warren and of course Kaine. Each will probably work best in particular states and for particular demographics and I am hoping that in the final weeks between the third debate and the election each will be deployed with military precision to where they bring the maximum benefit.
The idea that HRC’s last, best hope is a team of surrogates - that she needs someone else to swoop in and win the election for her - is, I think, very telling.
Well yes I have been saying for a long time she is a mediocre candidate and her predicament against possibly the worst presidential candidate ever doesn’t surprise me that much. She will have her role to play too in the debates and I am expecting a competent performance from her. If she does that, I think her ground operation and the dream team of surrogates will push her over the finish line.
The SPLC is a great organization – that you ignore them means you’re missing out on great data. But here are some other sources (they cite the SPLC, ADL, as well as white supremacist organizations and leaders themselves).
About as telling as the fact that this was your takeaway from that post…
I don’t know this for a fact, but it seems that a possible problem that Hillary is having is that she’s having trouble getting back into the spotlight. Whether by design or sheer coincidence, Trump has been dominating the news cycle the last 7-10 days - not necessarily for the right reasons but none of the press seems to be especially fatal. He has simply swung from one outrage to another. I think Hillary is potentially in big, big trouble here…and by virtue of that fact, so are we.
You called them the “Dream Team” but I don’t see them that way. Obama’s job approval is barely over 50%, Joe Biden has a reputation for saying crazy things, Bill Clinton is like a walking, talking reminder of “I did not have sex with that woman” and other embarrassing moments from HRC’s past. Really, her best surrogate is probably Michelle Obama. The others are kind of … mediocre.
Every one of them (at least in states that go red) who fails to vote for HRC will.
Any numbers on HRC’s warchest? I had the impression she was swimming in it a la Scrooge McDuck?
Gotta say, as a white suburban guy in his 50s, with a very comfortable income from a pretty secure job (which legislation could nevertheless eliminate), with his kids out of school/out of the house/employed, and with enough savings/retirement bennies to not be worried, I doubt my day-to-day life will be affected much one way or the other if Trump is elected. My concerns are for the less fortunate, for future generations, and for how our country chooses to project itself internationally.
Nah, it’s telling.
In the end, races are ultimately about the individuals themselves. And Trump, like him or loathe him, is dominating the public personality game. He will probably get his ass kicked on policy specifics and facts, but that may not necessarily matter.
We will know a lot more in 72 hours, I think.
In this incredible polarization, Obama’s approval of over 50% is phenomenal. It’s incredibly hard to do better than that today. I’m not sure if there’s anyone currently in office with a higher job approval rating.
Well, that is just begging to poison the well before bothering to report where is that the SPLC gets it wrong, in any case it is not only the SPLC who is reporting that, but the anti defamation league, and even the hate groups themselves:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/donald-trump-white-supremacists-216620
Just curious, what kind of job could legislation eliminate? Some sort of .gov position?
I would not be so sure of that. There is nothing right now that would make you feel alarmed, but a bad president can do spectacular damage in a relatively short span of time. I remember the guy we elected in 2000 and 2004. Took us less than 8 years to go from record post-WWII economic stats to the worst economic crisis in 80 years. And we still have troops fighting wars in the ME with no end in sight and a national debt that may will approach crisis stage in the next 5-10 years – sooner if the big Cheetoh gets elected.
But don’t worry folks, Trump’s got it covered: he’ll just default on our debts and pull out of WTO.
Pretty accurate.