Yes, Clinton has only lead in the last 30 polls of Pennsylvania. Can’t take it for granted!
Eta: The last poll seems to have been conducted by a Republican linked pollster which doesn’t appear to be even listed in 538’s rankings.
This country is overwhelmingly white, but it is not overwhelmingly xenophobic white. Just because most of Trump’s supporters are white does not mean that most whites are his supporters. And there are a lot of people, white and otherwise, who consider Trump to be a bigger threat to our country than the “others” are.
So either people are messing with the pollsters, misunderstood the question, or are just the worst people ever.
Or they just have that defiance reflex. Some of them probably should have answered “doesn’t change my vote” but some people can’t resist acting like everything just reinforces their opinion regardless of the mental gymnastics involved.
Oh I know, was just picking a nit with the statement “everything else recent is +7 or more for her.” But it’s ok, I’ll follow up by picking the next poll that just came out, NBC News/WSJ/Marist, that has her at +9 in N.H. 
I’m not saying that white America is overwhelmingly xenophobic and some of his supporters don’t even consider themselves particularly hostile to foreigners and minorities. Indeed, many Trump supporters will tell you “I’m not against immigration, I’m just against illegal immigration.” The catch is, if you dig deeper, what exactly is an “illegal” immigrant in their mind? They seem to believe that there’s a problem, but can one simply look at an illegal immigrant and identify one as such? I think it’s a case of not being aware of their own bias, a subconscious but powerful, driving bias. The same is true probably with regard to their views on African Americans and even legal immigrants who supposedly take American jobs. They’re probably okay with individual black and immigrants they know – “It’s all the others who are causing problems.” These are people who aren’t outwardly hostile – some are quite so but many aren’t. They just have this feeling that something isn’t quite right and hasn’t been since about 1965.
But the polls actually do say that most whites are his supporters. I know that’s not what we as whites want to believe, but that’s what the data are telling us and in no way does this surprise me. Now, I also agree that not all those who support Trump are white – and I will never understand that. I guess what it tells me is that some people just don’t fear Trump. Some people continue to believe he’s not really that bad. “What harm could he really do, right?” “We can vote him out in 4 years, right?” Just like some republicans thought "Okay, sure let him up on the debate stage :D:dubious:
:eek::eek::eek:
Clinton solid in NH but hanging on in NV.
Nationally, Fox now says the race is tightening. Down to 3 point lead.
She was only +3 earlier in a NH poll earlier today. At this rate, she’ll be +235 by election day!
New AP Poll has C+14 and new Suffolk has C+9
Again, the wide spread in polling results even as the aggregate moves hardly at all is to me the big polling story of this point of the election, and hinges on divergent LV screen models.
just saying, the folks I talk to don’t say anything nice about Trump, but will vote for him instead of that lying, cheating, bad-use-of-skin woman. When I explain that they have been brainwashed, they refer me to some 13 minute video that proves how vile is the lady.
The point was, they don’t like Trump much, actually, but at least he will be entertaining.
Thankfully, most folks around here won’t discuss politics unless they are in a group they are sure supports their side of things.
Jennifer J. Jones, a researcher at U.C. Irvine, has uncovered an interesting fact: Donald’s Trump diction is very feminine. This may seem backwards — after all Trump is noted for locker-room “boys talk” — but the researcher suggests that counts of prepositions and pronouns, his tentative language, and emotion-laden words (e.g. “beautiful”, “despise”) fit a feminine model.
She even suggests this is one reason he has enjoyed the electoral success he has: “Candidates who spoke in a feminine style were perceived as considerably warmer, more likable and more trustworthy than those whose style was more masculine.”
Ms. Jones has written more on the “masculine” and “feminine” styles of politicians’ discourse:
Around here, there are a fair number of Trump signs, so there are clearly some people who are actually for him, rather than merely ‘any R is better than the Hildebeast.’ Though I’m sure there are those too.
But what DSeid said about the polls. Hillary seems to have settled into a six or seven point lead, depending on what aggregator you go with.
Which is clearly BS, given that her results show that male politicians tend towards “feminine” diction and vice-versa. But nonetheless, it’s BS that I sincerely hope makes its way to Trump’s attention, because he’s sure to have an epic meltdown over it.
Would that be the Jennifer J. Jones who is a Ph.D. candidate in the field of Political Psychology? Ah, c’mon! Seriously?
It’s not BS if she studied the diction of non-politicians as well as politicians. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to find any of her papers online. (She has a website with links to papers … which return Error 404. :smack: )
Was it this page?
I don’t get 404s. Anyway it looks like she drew on other’s research. Personally, whether Trump or Clinton “talk like a man” or not doesn’t interest me too much so this will be the extent of my research on the topic.
This is one of those topics that might have some valid scientific grounding, but even if it does, I struggle to see the benefits of pursuing it.
Dcotorates? That’s a benefit.
Who the bleeding fuck examines the candidates for a doctorate in Political Psychology?
A large panel of ill-informed and largely disinterested people.