Fifty to one it doesn’t happen. What’s your wager?
We need the right conditions first, starting with a close election. We’re not there…yet.
Not good. We’re back to 75% in Polls Only, which for me is the threshold of “truly scary” territory. Nevada and North Carolina are the palest blue (so is Florida, but I never trust Florida to do anything right, so I’ve always discounted it).
I am now officially slightly concerned. But take heart in this: look at the list of polls for each swing state - for VA, CO, NH, WI, MI, and PA, every single poll for the last month, except maybe for 1 or 2 ties, has Hillary ahead, usually by more than 4 or 5. If she wins those states she wins. It’s incredibly unlikely that she loses those states.
25% isn’t incredibly unlikely. And polls this month? Polls at this point are only relevant if they are less than a week old. And today’s results might make even those polls irrelevant if they show further decline in her position.
She finished yesterday +2.9. If it’s down below 2 or near there today, those older state polls are meaningless.
Florida will probably turn pink within the next few days in polls only, and the early voting in that state doesn’t really point to an advantage from Clinton. In fact GOP voters have a slight lead and South Florida, typically more democratic, is lagging behind the rest of the state in early voting. I think Trump is going to win Florida.
I think Trump will also probably win in Ohio. I base this on the fact that there are more Republican voters in Ohio and Hillary Clinton is not having the same kind of crossover success that Barack Obama had with moderates.
Nevada’s and North Carolina’s trends are positive, but the turnout has to be sustained and Clinton’s poll numbers need to remain relatively constant. Clinton could probably take a dip in the polls and retain these states, but Trump could still win it on election day. I suspect Nevada and North Carolina voters are angry and determined to vote against the blatant hostility of the GOP.
Right now my EV count would put Clinton at around 293, including North Carolina and Nevada. If she loses both she would still have 272. If she loses both and one other state, Trump takes it. But I am really starting to doubt she gets much above 300 unless there is something horrific learned about Trump in the next 72 hours.
Note that she needs to win ALL SIX of those states (assuming Trump gets FL, NC, NV). Yes, she’s favored, but the election may be close. If she wins the popular vote by only 1% she probably loses the electoral vote. (BTW, if Trump takes Ohio but Hillary wins the nation, it will be the first time since 1960 that Ohio, the key swing state, didn’t go with the winner.)
Rothschild’s estimate of Trump’s chance, recently 9%, has risen back to 14%. Betfair shows 24%, Predictit 32% and the Iowa Electronic Market a whopping 42%.
I didn’t wager at Betfair earlier because I didn’t want my money tied up for months, but if I were confident of Clinton victory now, with only a week to go, the odds at Betfair would be very tempting. But I’m not.
Yup, that’s the “firewall.” Of those, apparently New Hampshire is currently the iffiest. Luckily, it doesn’t have a whole lot of EVs.
Trump wins a 269-269 tie. If he gets NH, Clinton’s only counter is to win 270-268 by getting NEB-2 (Omaha) with its even tinier 1 e.v. 
I’m slightly concerned, but only slightly. Early voting numbers look good in general and aren’t factored into 538’s model, which assuages some of my concern.
NH and PA are in the bag.
It’s all about NC now. Win that and it’s over, you don’t even need CO, NV or even NH (or OH or FL).
Polls in NC close at 7:30pm ET. Listen to the map guys on TV starting around 3:00pm and see what they’re saying about about key precincts in NC. The map guys always give it away.
But in three of those states, PA, MI, and NH, there is effectively no early voting. Thus the polls matter. I do agree, however, that the likelihood of losing these states is slim.
Not entirely in the bag. If there were early voting, I’d say absolutely yes. But until November 8, the polls will continue to matter. I worry more about NH than in PA as Hillary has tended to struggle more with voter perceptions there.
True – thanks. I only meant that, if Clinton needs to offset a loss of EITHER North Carolina OR Nevada, she can afford to lose New Hampshire, due to its low EV count relative to other firewall states.
But if she loses BOTH NC and NV, losing NH could spell her doom.
Heh – good advice. My wife always tells me I can’t keep a secret!
I’m not the least bit worried about NH, haven’t been for one second. Most of the votes are in areas that are virtually centrist suburbs of Boston. And the more rural areas are shockingly liberal, much more like VT than PA.
Where are the GOP parts of NH? Because NH is more Republican by far than any of its neighbors.
Who cares where they are?
1992 Clinton
1996 Clinton
2000 Bush
2004 Kerry
2008 Obama
2012 Obama
I only lived 10 miles from the NH border (never in NH), and only for a year…but my experience is that rural NH residents tend to be somewhat liberal (not nearly as much as rural VT residents)…but more than that, they tend to be ornery. Many of them surely like how Trump seems to be giving a finger to “them.” Not in a racist sense, mind you (though there’s surely a bit of that here and there).
A positive update to 538 just now:
Polls-plus ↑ 1.3% (74.4%-25.5%)
Polls-only ↑ 0.4% (75.6%-24.4%)
Now-cast ↑ 1.2% (74.8%-25.2%)
From a very solid (B+ rated) poll of PA with HRC +11.