Likewise with “looking great”…
Needless to say. I think it unlikely Trump looks very particularly awful or great to people whose minds aren’t made up already that his coming debate performance v Clinton ‘was’ awful/great.
Urge Vladimir Putin to hack into federal government servers?
:smack::eek::rolleyes:
The current spin on that one:
“Ha ha, what a joker Trump is, please ignore every word that comes out of his pie-hole, OK?”
I have to say, though, this “puppet of Russia” line is one that I’ve seen few consider before the past couple of weeks. If nothing else, this may blunt the insistence that the Clinton Foundation was selling influence or whatever.
It’ll be interesting to see how it plays in the general.
Speaking of the general, honest question: every time a possible weakness of Trump comes up, there’s a chorus that says, “Yeah, but his numbers haven’t gone down yet.” But how often does that happen, honestly, when a major presidential candidate’s supporters get peeled off like that?
Putin knew you would react that way. That’s why he did it. He’s actually backing Hillary. That Putin, he’s a sly one.
Latest LA Times poll has Trump up by 7(!)
Weird that the same poll had Hillary beating Trump just 8 days ago. Sounds like they are prone to outlier results, maybe.
That’s most likely an outlier. I think we will have a better assessment of the race probably starting around the middle of next week, once both candidates have had their bounces and once the media start collecting data.
I’d also caution that there can be major swings in polling depending on whom they contact, respondent participation, and other factors. Reuters/Ipsos had Hillary up by something like 13-15 points only 10 days before the RNC convention and in one of their last polls, they were nearly even. And some polls consistently lean right or left, which shouldn’t really happen in a poll that is truly representative of the entire population.
I’ve suspected over the years that polling is purposely manipulated by some organizations as a way to influence voter behavior. You have some group like Rasmussen that comes out with a poll that shows Trump behind by 1 point when others show him behind by 6 or 7 points. The effect is that a close poll still gives Trump supporters hope that there’s a reason to vote. The same happens with left-leaning polls, whichever ones those might be.
If only there were someone who could look at all the polls and do some kind if statistical analysis that took those factors into account.
538 has very few recent polls in swing states. Looking at the more recent state level polls:
New Hampshire: July 18
Pennsylvania: July 11
Ohio: July 24 (Trump +2)
Virginia: July 12
North Carolina: July 12
Florida: July 11
I won’t go on; you can see that for the most part major polling organizations are not bothering to take state level polls right now. And state level polls are far more accurate in helping to project the results than national polls.
National polls are trending Trump to be sure, but right now we are somewhat blind as to what’s going on at the level that matters. Silver does a good job explaining why he’s bullish on Trump in a column today, though, and it’s worth a lead. His logic is, as always, solid.
I’m now as bullish on Trump in the general as I’ve ever been, mainly for the following reasons:
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National security and global instability will become a bigger issue – a liability for an incumbent party and especially for a recent Sec of State whose most controversial decision involved blowback that arguably destabilized parts of N Africa. The economy may become unsettled because of global events as well, which would be a double-whammy.
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Julian Assange and Russia obviously are working to make sure that Clinton doesn’t win, and I’ve long wondered whether there might be information that could be used to give the appearance of some sort of bad link between the Clintons and unsavory characters (i.e. something that republicans could use to accuse her of getting funding from those with links to China or terrorism). Mind you, I don’t actually for a moment suspect that the Clintons would actually do any of the shit they’re accused of, but the appearance of impropriety is all that matters. I suspect Assange and Putin have something up their sleeve.
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Bernie or Busters will go to Jill Stein, not in huge numbers but in numbers large enough to impact some key state races, including Ohio and Florida.
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Voters in general are in the mood for a disruptor in politics. Trump is that disruptor.
That being said, Trump had one of his worst days of his entire campaign yesterday. Here’s to hoping he repeats his blunders in the debates.
The nowcast has it back to where I posted the number earlier, 57.5% for Trump. On Monday it was at that number, but it went down to 53.8% (I wonder why).
So far the RCP (RealClearPolitics) average has Trump at 1.1%. (For popular vote? Or likely to win?).
Friday (or Monday) we’ll see if there’s a boost or a bust in the numbers.
Yes. This.
Republicans have been told for years that we need a government so small it can be drowned in a bathtub. Is it so surprising that they are enthusiastic about a candidate who can do the drowning?
We’re truly entering some Tom Clancy-esque shit in this election. If you’d said twenty years ago that a con artist planning on selling out his own country was going to ride a fascist campaign on the backs of interference from the Russian government and a professional muckraker, and might actually have a shot at winning, I would have assumed you were discussing some crazy movie, not reality.
Like it or not, the Democratic Party must face the fact that they have to fight dirty. Eloquent speeches, facts, and solid arguments aren’t working and they’re not going to work. What will work is viciousness. Trump has debased the politics of the United States and it’s bad to have to stoop to his level, but they must do so for the good of the United States and the world.
They must stoop LOWER, if anything. Slander and libel; vicious innuendo; outright lies must be used to sway voter emotions. The Democrats must hire moles and spies to break into Trump’s personal and professional information to find smoking guns if at all possible. Since Julian Assange appears to be on Trump’s payroll, the battle must be brought to that level. Find and leak whatever can be found. Employ whatever resources must be employed. Lie, attack, assault Trump on every front. Use the rape accusations against him. He will do anything to be elected; do anything to stop it.
If the Democrats are terrified of a cyber surprise, then why the hell aren’t they spending millions hiring top security experts to hack Trump and find surprises of their own? Shit, if I was some rich Hollywood star with Democratic bona fides I’d offer to pay the bill myself; don’t they have George Clooney’s number? If you’re in a fight with a man who’s about to kick you in the face, you don’t just stand there and worry about how much it’ll hurt. You pick up a goddamn hammer and you smash his head in.
It sucks that it’s come to this, but one hopes things will be better in 2020.
This I don’t really believe, no. The numbers for Johnson and Stein will fall significantly.
Well if the rumors about the Clintons are true, they’re not above murdering a motherfucker or two. 
I don’t believe Trump said that. He asked the Russians to find Clinton’s 30,000 missing emails. Emails now famously known to have been held on a private server.
(excerpted)
Hey, I thought we weren’t allowed to promote illegal activities here.