Maybe it’s come back to haunt him that he can’t correctly pronounce their state name?
If I were Trump, I’d make a plane trip to Las Vegas, Reno, Aspen and Denver, because if he gets those two he won’t be living in 725 Fifth Avenue for the next 4 years. Polls Plus & the Nowcast are showing just those two states could be crucial for Trump to win (He’s at 30% now for polls plus). Florida and North Carolina have flipped.
I get Florida but I wonder why Nate has NC flipping. Is he analyzing data in specific precincts?
NM – I get it now. Recent polling has been baaaaad for Hillary in NC.
If current trends continue as projected, then it looks like Trump could take Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. I’m still a little skeptical about North Carolina because of the early voting results posted on NYT upshot. However, if the polls are accurate, then those who show up on election day would override the early voters easily.
If it’s all true, then that leaves us with Nevada, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire as Clinton’s firewall. Trump could go in two directions: win PA outright, or win in NH and Nevada. The road to a Trump presidency is now rather straightforward.
Yeah, especially if you sort the polling by date instead of weight. 538 has these (from most recent to less recent):
Trump +7, Tie, Clinton +2, Trump +7, Trump +1, Trump +2.
Winning PA is not impossible either. It’s a long shot given the history, but not impossible at all. Again, the game that Trump is playing is vote suppression. If he can discourage and disrupt certain voters in PA, he could pull off the shocker. He’s not quite in the Red Zone yet, but he’s around mid field.
He could also win any of MN, MI, WI, or CO + ME2. I think any of those routes are about as plausible as Trump winning PA.
The states he’s least likely to win are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Is it possible? Sure, but it’s just highly unlikely considering the history of these states, how he’s performed, and how Clinton’s performed. I would give him a chance were it not for the Flint water scandal and Snyder’s low approval ratings.
His chances in PA are not much better but he has a fighting chance if he can somehow discourage voters in the Philadelphia area, which isn’t really that likely. Hillary’s been doing well in the city and the suburbs.
I think Trump’s campaign would probably get most bang for its buck in making a circuit between FL, OH, NC, NV, and NH, and with a heavy, heavy emphasis on Nevada and New Hampshire. Trump has been competitive in those states and did well in the primaries. These are states in which Clinton’s vulnerabilities against Bernie Sanders were exposed. And he’s relatively close now. These are states that can be flipped. Long shots, but his best shots.
And now, just a few hours later, it’s 16%. :eek:
Meanwhile, chance of a Democratic House of Representatives has fallen to a measly 8%. Rothschild shows Democratic Senate as 68%, down sharply from 79% a week ago.
Just curious, why haven’t you mentioned Colorado even once in your recent posts?
The recent polls in NC particularly Survey USA +7 Trump are a disappointment. It was a nice bonus state beyond the core firewall where Hillary had a steady lead for a few weeks and there were also good reports from early voting. Now it seems to be a toss-up and Hillary is left with just her firewall states: NH, PA, CO etc. A couple of good polls for Trump in any of these states and we are officially in the pure terror zone again. 538’s 29% for a Trump win still seems high to me but PEC’s 1% is silly. It’s clear that Trump does have a significant chance and it will probably stay that way till election day. I guess the hope is that Hillary still has some huge structural advantages in terms of ground game, ad money and surrogates and that will be enough to pull out the win even if polls look close.
I’d note that the Trump+7 poll in NC is an outlier. If Trump gains another point or two in the national polls he probably will win NC, but no other pollsters are showing Trump at +7 right now there.
If I had to guess, I’d say Clinton+1 in NC as of today.
Sure, Clinton could drop in Colorado, as she could in a number of states. The problem for Trump is time, which he is a bit short on at the moment. He still at the moment has a lot of ground to cover but he has very limited time in which to do it. He has to pick his states and make his moves wisely, which is why he shouldn’t waste time and resources on states like Wisconsin, which have not been kind to republicans - or him - historically.
Trump won his first primary in NH. Though the odds are long, Trump has an audience of ‘energy voters’ in Pennsylvania. Trump has done well in NV. Those are the states I’d focus on. And then hope that things fall into place in FL, OH, and NC.
It’s not an outlier: Google Consumer Surveys also has Trump at +7. It’s a B rated polls but that’s one A-rated poll and one B-rated poll (2 together) pointing to a strong Trump lead in the polls. In reality the lead could be more like +3 than +7, but still, recent polling data concluding on 10/31 show Trump is stronger than Clinton in NC, and that’s not entirely unexpected either. North Carolina is generally still a republican state that occasionally flirts with Democratic candidates either in unusual situations like the financial crisis of 2008. Clinton’s odds have always been long. She had a chance until the FBI case reopened, but that’s pretty much it for her there I’m afraid.
I think we can say the same is true in Ohio as well. Trump has held the advantage of higher GOP registrations all along. Moreover, he has outperformed previous republicans among blue collar voters who are socially conservative but economically liberal, which has helped him in places like Youngstown, Toledo, and elsewhere, in addition to the support republicans typically enjoy in the suburbs of Cincinnati and Cleveland.
Florida is a state in which Trump has an advantage but it’s not a decisive one – he could still lose there. For Trump to win, he needs to suppress the black vote and he also needs a poor turnout in South Florida. And both of those things appear to be happening right now, which is why he stands a better than 50% chance of winning.
Right now I’ve got Clinton winning 278 to 260, and that assumes Trump eventually defeats McMullin in UT. I don’t think this is going to change much for Clinton – she’ll be lucky to win. Trump could still win.
So. Just how much per post do you get from the Republican party anyway?
Clinton +1.7 in the 2-way, still +2.2 in the four way as of this morning.
Jack Batty, that’s enough of that. Do it again and it’ll be time for a warning.
Sure, and according to Sam Wang it’s Clinton +3.2, and according to 538 it’s Clinton +4.
The truth is probably around the middle, which is Clinton +3, which is of course roughly the average of where it’s been the whole race.
I’m not sure how asahi gets 278-260, that’s kind of a weird split; I can construct that number only by assuming Trump wins Nevada and Florida, and the wins Wisconsin OR Minnesota but not both, and not Pennsylvania, Michigan or New Hampshire, and that would be a really weird arrangement of states. Trump is quite unlikely to win Wisconsin or Minnesota, but if he does he’s not going to lose the election; that would be a very large swing in his favour in six days, and enough to tip North Carolina (At least.)
A much likelier scenario for a way-too-exciting-evening where Clinton wins is this one, because NC will go Trump before Wisconsin does:
Right now my suspicion is it’ll look like this, though this is not yet my official prediction:
I need a silver lining to a possible Trump victory. Is it possible that we just need four years of Trump to just get this out of our system? I know this is coming from a very privileged position of someone who can ride out, and even benefit financially from, a Trump presidency. But, Trump supporters are still going to exist and the GOP is still going to have to cater to them under a Clinton presidency. Maybe four years of Trump makes it so that we can all get together and agree not to ever do that again. Maybe the best thing for the country is for the GOP to get its shit back together and four years of Trump would push that?
Maybe?