You have 3 parties with at least 15% from the get-go running for President in 2020. It’s just a question of what the Trumps decide to call themselves.
It might dissuade them from jumping straight into running for President. And it should: That’s a mighty big leap. But they could still run for the Senate or House first, or a governorship, and then take it from there. There’s plenty of precedent for that, and that’s the route that any sane would-be politician would take.
Again, if Trump had fallen on his face immediately, if he’d spent $100 million of his own money and gotten zero delegates in New Hampshire, THAT would discourage a Mark Cuban or a Bill Gates from running for President.
But Trump DIDN’T fall on his face until a few weeks ago, and he didn’t spend that much of his own cash. Before the first debate, people were just STARTING to believe he had a real chance of winning.
Overall, Trump’s campaign was very successful, even though he’ll lose the general election. Which means that a rich, flaky dilettante might well conclude “If I run, I can win the nomination. And if I avoid Trump’s stupid mistakes, I can go all the way.”
No, I’m not saying this WILL happen, merely that Trump’s October collapse does NOT prove a rich celeb couldn’t win. If anything, it proves how easily a rich celeb with no obvious qualifications can get within a whisker of the White House. Mark Cuban is richer and a lot smarter than Trump. Why COULDN’T he make a successful run in 2020?
Trump exploited a wide field of Republicans who were focused on beating each other until far too late. The establishment will not underestimate the future rich populist celebrity threat to nearly the same extent.
Do you think Trump wins the republican nomination if the groping tape surfaces when Rubio, Kasich, and Cruz are still in it?
Trump has vaccinated America against his kind.
Counter cite: Al Franken, Sonny Bono, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan, etc etc.
Anyone who is afraid to run should not run.
Question: Did Trump win the nomination because he is so toxic or in spite of it. If the latter, then a suitably well-known but less toxic idiot (how about Limbaugh?) might just do it. And with certain voters, lack of experience does not seem to matter.
The New Yorker I got yesterday interviewed a number of first time voters, most around 20. One a college student, said she is voting for Trump because she can’t stand anyone who lies to her. Under what rock has she been living I wonder?