I think we’ve been answering two different questions here: How will his base respond and how do the insurrectionists respond?
For the base - this was never an insurrection, based on His Orangeness, this was a peaceful protest, that due to the horrible, no good, very bad, treacherous Pence and Dems, became inflamed at the injustice and did a little, tiny bit of rambunctious, child like petty vandalism. Certainly not an insurrection. And that is exactly how his base is treating it - this isn’t even fake news, it’s old news, thus the whataboutism comparisons to the riots. So zero effect on his base.
The individual insurrectionists, of course, are going under the bus. They’re the only ones questioning, and even then, I suspect they believe that if they had been successful, they’d have gotten the love (fat chance) that Trump promises all his followers. So, despite being upset with Trump, there’s probably a bit of self-hate for being such a failure. Which may mean if they get off light from the federal charges, they may come back hardened in their love to prove they’re worthy.