I concur. In order to get Trump declared ineligible, you will need to be able to prove (probably beyond a reasonable doubt) that:
(A) what happened on Jan 6th was an insurrection, and (B) that it was actively supported by Donald Trump
Both of these are possible but neither is really a slam dunk.
As far as (A) goes, I will note that none of the people involved in the attack have been charged with insurrection. The closest they have come is conspiracy to obstruct a congressional proceeding. When I think of insurrection I think of the violently overthrowing the government to directly take power by force. This wasn’t the goals of the Jan 6th attackers. Their hope was to create enough chaos to delay the result long enough for a constitutional loophole to kick in that would result in the legal and orderly continuation of the Trump administration.
As far as (B) even if we characterize what went down on Jan 6th as an insurrection, it is going to be really hard to pin it on Trump. The phrase that was pointed to in the impeachment hearing was
“And we fight. We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”
But that was one of many uses of fight given in the speech all of which were figurative. For example
The American people do not believe the corrupt, fake news anymore. They have ruined their reputation. But you know, it used to be that they’d argue with me. I’d fight. So I’d fight, they’d fight, I’d fight, they’d fight. Pop pop.
Republicans are, Republicans are constantly fighting like a boxer with his hands tied behind his back. It’s like a boxer. And we want to be so nice. We want to be so respectful of everybody, including bad people. And we’re going to have to fight much harder.
And you have to get your people to fight. And if they don’t fight, we have to primary the hell out of the ones that don’t fight. You primary them.
Now it is entirely possible that he used this violent rhetoric knowing it would incite his followers to violence, but he has plausible deniability that all he really thought would happen is a peaceful protest outside the capitol and that he was shocked! shocked! that it turned violent. In fact speaking as someone who loathes Trump and everything he represents I’d give even odds that he didn’t intend for the storming of the capitol, but was pleasantly surprised (the same way Osama Bin Laden was pleasantly surprised by the World Trade center’s collapse).
Now this only includes the evidence we have so far, if smoking guns related to the Jan 5th Trump Hotel meeting, or his (in)actions during the attack show clear culpability I may revise my assessment, but I think Trump is more likely to go down due to tax fraud or Russia than for the Jan 6th attack.