Two questions: How far out is your “long run”? Have you seen the type of Supreme Court nominees that Trump is promising?
Right. In terms of the long-lasting impacts of Supreme Court appointments, international relations, national security, recessions and fundamental economic transformations, the damage wrought by Bush the Lesser will be felt for generations. And yet, as much of a dumbass as he was, Bush was an intellectual heavyweight compared to Trump. And in his plodding, incompetent way, he was actually well-intentioned. Most of what he did was wrong only because he was an idiot. Trump is much worse than just an idiot; he’s a ruthlessly self-serving demagogue with absolutely no sense of decency or any notion of what ethics even are.
Back to the question of the op …
Hard to imagine Trump being worse as a candidate than he has been these last few weeks, right?
Yet Trump is less far down than he was in most of March, April, and even into May. He is polling better in many swing states than he is nationally. He is polling better in some of those states than Romney did in them.
What does his doing relatively only this poorly after these particular last several weeks tell us? I am not too comfortable with what may be a floor this high.
As the Votemaster keeps pointing out, Trump has no compaign money and is not being successful in raising any. Hillary is pulling it in hand over first.
But I am also worried about what I call the “Truman effect”. A significant number of voters were apparently embarrassed to admit they were voting for Truman. I think there was some of that on Brexit too.
Also, criticism of Dubya often involves him over-deferring to Cheney, right?
I mean, say what you will about that, but the guy had gone from being a president’s Chief of Staff to spending over a decade in Congress during the administrations of a second and third president before spending years as SecDef under a fourth president; on paper, isn’t someone like that the kind of person we’d strongly hope a man with limited-to-no experience in government would rely on as an advisor?
Now, sure, you can take that too far – or you can go waaaaaaaay too far in the other direction. But if we grant that Trump isn’t likely to hit the happy medium, which do you figure is more likely: that he’ll err on the side of deferring to an experienced politician; or that he’ll make it up as he goes along, erring on the side of shooting off his mouth every time the latest damn fool idea pops into his head?
Is it?
As an analogy the thought is it is akin to getting someone off of a drug addiction. For the next few days or weeks they are going to be miserable but the end result is much preferable to a continued drug addiction which, left unchecked, may well kill them.
Of course it is debatable whether that process is needed or worth the pain but it is not unreasonable to say some period of pain is necessary to achieve a better future.
Uh, the same logic was used by several leftist Italians and Germans in the early 20th century.
It did not turn out as expected.
In the current days I do not think it will be that bad, but consider that we will be leaving the next 3 or more Supreme Court justices to the Republicans, meaning that we will continue with a conservative court after they had it already for more than 2 decades. As Scalia showed with his last Hurrah against climate change EPA legislation there is a lot that if left unchecked will kill many in the future.
So Mussolini and Hitler got into office because the opposition figured if they let those guys in everyone would see what buffoons they are causing unnecessary pain to the country?
I missed that part in history class. Do you have evidence of this?
The left was divided then and many did die opposing Hitler, but to the left of Hitler there were a lot of powerful centrists and moderates that though that they could control him. Sounds a lot like the turtle McConnell.
But there were a lot of Germans on the extreme left that had that idea too, the Socialists got too close to the Wiemar Republic and when the depression hit the Communists also fought against them and less against Hitler. Thinking that Hitler would make indeed make things worse, so then the Communists would take over. The best-laid plans of mice and men…
For the historical background of that terrible idea there is more here:
And a fairly reliable indicator of privilege.
By this definition, a lot of rich people are not privileged.
It is unreasonable in areas where that process has never been found to work.
That almost never works.
Barack Obama was the product of America’s outrage over Bush. Obama had barely four months before he started running into political opposition and being labeled a “socialist, fascist, communist dictator.” In fact, for fun, you can Google that exact phrase and guess who’s name comes up? Not even two years later he was handed a republican congress, with whom he’s been fighting ever since. Hell, progressives don’t even give credit for being a progressive anymore.
It’s evident to the world Right Now that Trump is an empty suit. Letting him have even one term will hurt a lot of people.
Don’t you remember W?
“We had to destroy the country in order to save it.”
As a life-long Republican who’s probably going to vote for the Libertarian this time 'round, I’d happily vote for Trump before I let Bloomberg within 1000 yards of the Oval Office.
Another possible analogy is that you quit drugs cold turkey, and SOMEBODY ELSE gets the withdrawal symptoms. Of course you’d do it, but what about the poor guy who got your symptoms?
Or maybe the addict decides the pain isn’t worth it, becomes desperate to make it stop, and gets even deeper into drugs.
A crushing and epic defeat like 52% Hillary, 35% Trump, and 13% other might also advance the concept that Presidents shouldn’t be breathtakingly ignorant.
Remember also that Trump will keep giving. In 2017 he will be working his mailing lists and shilling all manner of overpriced googaws, ill-conceived investment advice, and underwater real estate to his legions of supporters. His most fervent 5% will happily jump into the ocean as the remainder of the country will wonder what they are thinking or smoking.
You’re also missing the fact that Trump has CREATED some swing states that any other Republican could have taken for granted. Hillary actually has a solid chance of winning Arizona and Utah.
Nonsense. If life worked that way, the post-Dubya Republican Party would be one of the also-rans that spends most of its resources just trying to get on the ballot.