@Aeschines posted a Salon article yesterday in which a former federal prosecutor opined at length about why Judge Merchan would be reluctant to jail Trump for contempt:
(Chauncey DeVega, Salon senior writer) Donald Trump is continuing to violate the gag order(s) placed on him by threatening and trying to intimidate the judges, prosecutors, district attorney, prospective jurors and other people involved in his trials. If he was a regular private citizen, he would likely be in prison by now. But could Trump’s behavior actually be part of a bigger strategy, where he actually wants to go to prison? Trump is very devious and was a student of master dirty trickster Roy Cohn. We can’t overlook that.
(former federal prosecutor Kenneth McCallion) I think that Donald Trump is probably trying to get himself thrown into prison or in a soundproof plexiglass box in the courtroom. This would enhance the narrative of martyrdom he is promoting, which resonates with his base. Neither Trump nor most of his die-hard base want to confront the stark reality that the problems they face are largely of their own making, and the result of a series of terrible choices made along with way. In fact, he had an exchange during the civil trial in New York before Judge Engoron where he was basically daring the judge to put him in jail. The judge said, basically, “I know you want me to hold you in contempt and put you in jail, and at some point, I’m going to have to do that, but not now.” In the current hush money criminal trial, there is a gag order. Ultimately, if Trump keeps violating it, there will be severe consequences, financial if not otherwise. But it’s difficult because you can’t really try somebody on criminal charges in absentia from jail. The optics do not look particularly good for the country if we have a Nuremberg-type trial with a glass or plexiglass cage for Donald Trump. It would look too much like one of those political show trials for opposition leaders in the former Soviet Union that led to pre-ordained executions.
It’s starting to dawn on Trump that this is all not going to end well for him. Trump may well just break out into a carefully calculated “unhinged” rant before the case goes to the jury. It reminds me of a basketball coach who gets himself thrown out of the game to inspire the players. If Trump was put in prison for contempt that would make his followers even more enthusiastic and loyal. It’s a real tough call for a judge to make because you really need the defendant in the courtroom.