I agree that he can’t think his way to such a conclusion, but he can feel his way to it. Plus, the people around him will be pushing him in the direction of not debating.
If we’re talking about Trump from Escalator 2015 to 1/6/2021, then I agree. The difference is that now, owing to different circumstances (e.g., losing the election, incurring tons of indictments, going through a grueling trial, etc.) and a different physical condition (older with rapidly accelerating dementia), Trump is a beat-up piece of shit at this point. He can’t allow himself to think the words, “I will fail in the debate,” but he will have an instinctive sense that it ain’t gonna go his way.
I don’t actually think that Trump is feeling good and confident right now.