It appears that Trump is no longer in the McDaniel camp, though.
Trump floats ousting RNC chair after brutal 2023 (axios.com)
I hope it horrifies her to feel the leopard breathing on her face.
I’ve smelled cat-food and poop on a cat’s breath before, but I wonder what face-breath smells like?
She tried to at least keep the appearance of a primary, so of course he is not happy. She was supposed to just prevent ANY challenge from even existing, never mind being public.
Trump would not have time to get much ballot access as a 3rd party candidate. Actual 3rd parties that have been in existence for 50 years and have fulltime staff and dedicated petitioners struggle to get on ballots and not just because of costs but because of insanely early deadlines. I also believe some states have “sore loser” laws that may be Unconstitutional but perhaps unchallenged and would require lengthy legal battles. Even though he’s probably the least libertarian president in history, there is a big MAGA-loving faction that has pretty much taken over the Libertarian Party. In theory maybe he could go to their convention (they are the only “3rd party” in modern times that has done well on ballot access and built an infrastructure not beholden to a personality cult) and get nominated, but I don’t think he would win. The Republicans (and Dems) write ballot access laws to leave other candidates off ballots and they run the debate commissions.
Even if he would not formally be on the ballot, it would not surprise me if he told people to write his name in anyway. Even if only a couple percent of people do that, it could swing close elections
Yes, but Trump has a well-established history of assuming everything will be easy for him, because it always has been in his life. He’s the boss, he orders it done, and it’s done, easy peasy. That there are actual laws and stuff that might prevent this will never enter his calculations. “Just get it done, or you’re fired!”
I’d love to think this is true. But in my observation, the only real unstoppable and invariant forces here are:
- The Republican superpower to unite in support of he front-runner, no matter how much they hate him.
- Republicans’ utter cowardice in facing up to Trump
The #2 point is frustrating but understandable. Trump has the ability and willingness to end the political career of anyone who opposes him. Not just that, but also sic his violent mob and possible threaten them or their families. Their fear is understandable, if not the abject cowardice.
However I do agree that Trump seems to be in increasing distress and disarray. I think Haley and DeSantis (RIP) built their campaign strategy hoping the same thing as the rest of us… that at some point Trump simply can’t continue, whether that’s due to being in hospital, jail, or a coffin.
But winning the election is his only hope of avoiding jail time - not just him, but his lackeys. Yes he’s deteriorating, yes there’s a good chance Trump implodes sometime before the general, no I don’t find it a sure bet that that it happens before he picks up the nomination. Maybe like 1/7 odds at best.
Sure it’s close enough to induce a front-running climber like Haley to gamble on it. But for the rest of us, the safest bet is that Trump gets the nomination.
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said. However, I think you missed the main thrust of the point I was making: Trump wouldn’t run as a third party to win. He would run for spite and malice, to ensure that Republicans would lose by splitting the base. That would be his sole goal at that point.
He does not care at all about the wreckage he leaves in his wake. He is entirely about self-preservation and revenge. He’s the walking, talking embodiment of hate.
What scares me most is how many people love him for it.
One of the great strengths of the Republican Party in the past was their ability to police their members to push a particular agenda. But as evidenced by the antics in the House in recent months, the MAGA facade has some serious cracks and the GOP can no longer police their own members and push through impeachments or bills they themselves support. I’m not sure if they still have the ability to unite to support the same president.
I think for purposes of this thread at a minimum, it’s useful to distinguish between MAGA and the Republican party. Currently our legislature has a number of both factions. The MAGA party only wants what it wants, while the Republicans can and have proven repeatedly that they will cave to MAGA rather than work with or “lose” too Democrats. Because the overlap is enough that a MAGA challenge to a Republican is likely to win, although depending on the state end up with a less viable general election.
So back to the quoted section - MAGA can and will (at least as long as Trump remains alive) unite behind him, and the Republicans will whine in private but go along for fear of retribution/losing what power they still have left.
Will MAGA finish devouring the Republican party? Well, that I don’t know.
I think that’s more about having a thin House majority with zero margin for error, and a lot of horse-trading with ambitious R’s in the background, and I think those dynamics are diminished (if not entirely irrelevant) in what’s already a 2-person primary race.
We’ve seen how primary races play out. It will happen in 2024 like it did in 2016, except instead of Trump having to defeat 10 or so candidates, he’ll just have to crush a brownish woman with a foreign name who flips like a weathervane. No problem. Her only supporters are never-Trumpers, and we know they’re inconsequential. So once that outcome appears likely, she’ll kiss the ring and accept a cabinet posting to duck out of the 2024 race and try again in 2028.
The only thing that’s going to change anything, as I said above, is if something major happens to Trump by June. Either he’s in jail, or has a debilitating medical event, or says something so messed-up that even Fox can’t spin it as anything less than him losing his marbles.
That’s an imaginable outcome, it could happen and I hope it does, but would you bet a paycheck on it? I wouldn’t.
People make their god in their own image.
When the Democrats had a similarly thin majority of the House and were still able to push through their agenda. The problems the Republicans are currently facing are far more serious than their thin majority in the House. The Republicans recently had an opportunity to finally get an immigration bill passed that most of them were pretty happy with. It failed not because the Republicans were unhappy with it but because Donald Trump told them to kill it. And he told them to kill it because immigration is an issue he wants to run on this year.
I do believe Trump will be the Republican’s candidate in 2024. But I’m not sure he can actually count on the Republican base to provide him with financial support. Most Republican politicians are at least going to avoid trashing the man, but can Trump manage to apply donors? I don’t know if he can.
And that is their biggest problem: that the leadership can’t even offer a compromise deal on anything because everybody knows ANY deal will be instantly derailed regardless of how good or bad it may be by a force external to the caucus and not present when the deal was offered.
Yes. Thus rendering the GOP caucus effectively powerless to accomplish anything at all.
This is an example of the ever expanding crazy that might cause Trump to be pressured out:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-blast-trump-over-threat-abandon-nato-allies-2024-02-12/
Ha ha! No.
Give it a few weeks/months and these same Republicans who are blasting Trump now will be falling over themselves to condemn NATO and suggest that it would be for the best if Putin takes over all of Europe.
I don’t think that’s realistic. What is realistic, however, is their simply forgetting what he said and sweeping it under the rug.
Trump is getting worse by the day, though. I’m sure you’ve heard of his blatantly Nazi speech at the NRA. I don’t think his current path is sustainable.
What pressure? The only Republican in that article to “blast” Trump for his comments is Chris Christie, and he’s made blasting Trump his brand. Every incumbent Republican officeholder quoted in the article either downplays his remarks or blames his comments on “aides.”
I understand what you mean, however, from the get-go he has always said things that would torpedo anyone else, and he has always gotten away with it. I don’t see how this is any different.