'Zactly. That may not be why she started running, but it’s why she’s still running now.
The big question though is that her wanting to keep running, and enough somebodies continuing to write donation checks to make it possible for her to keep running are two very different things.
You’d hope there are enough fatcats out there who really want a Plan B and will pay to keep her campaign alive. But fatcats did not become fatcats by routinely investing in 99% lost causes.
Haley’s approach, though, is the exact opposite of what she should be doing if she wants to be the GOP’s “fallback” option. The delegates at the Republican National Convention who will vote on the nomination will be hard-core Trumpists, and all she’s done is antagonize them. She can argue that she came in second, but that “second” will be 5% of delegates versus Trump’s 95%. There’s almost no chance that the convention turns to her, especially when there would be plenty of other options for the delegates to consider.
True. In today’s 538 podcast, they mention that Ron Desantis would likely jump back into the fray if Trump’s candidacy were to collapse – at least, he would be better positioned as a replacement than Haley.
They point out that Haley’s net favorability among Republican voters has been declining since she started to push back against Trump, about a month ago; it’s now (slightly) “underwater” (net negative) for the first time.
Whether or not a cause is lost depends in large part on what that cause actually is.
We live in strange times, so maybe? The problem with this strategy is that the Republican’s will select their nominee long before November, and unless Haley is already on the ticket as Trump’s running mate, something which seems unlikely, but strange times, they’ll go with Trump’s running mate for president and select someone else for VP. Haley does have a problem in that a lot of MAGA hates her guts. My mother thinks she’s a Democrat. Seriously.
There would be nothing more devastating for the GOP than betraying Trump. They know it damn well too. It doesn’t matter how obvious it becomes that Trump will lose, that would pale in comparison to their loses if Trump turns on them. Biden would have a chance to sweep all 50 states.
Sure, and we know it’s only because she dares face him. Which is why her negatives have gone up within the Rs, because by staying in she becomes more identified as She Who Is Against Trump.
The fatcats are right now facing a terrifying scenario: On the one side, without the MAGA votes they can’t win and protect themselves from, oh the horror, the horror! of a more progressive tax, of employees not being hostage to their health insurance, of oil stocks losing value. On the other side, with the MAGA votes, they have realized too late they become hostages to the impulsive rage of the vulgar rabble, who’d elect people willing to destabilize the system to make them submit to political whims and get around rule of law by merely rewriting the law on the spot.
Gee, how my heart breaks for them. /s
While I feel it, I truly do, the sad part is that to protect thein own interets they’re selling everyone else out to the the violent rage and hate to keep from having a target painted on them.
And possibly even more terrifyingly, the fact that as it stands, if we do get 4 more years of Trump, I don’t think there’s going to be anything left of an honest opposition in terms of the former Republican party. It’s going to be MAGA, and a bunch of right leaning “indepenants” or conservative Democrats.
Which in and of itself isn’t terrible, but with MAGA wielding the defacto and dejure power of the Republican party, it’s money, and the donors that don’t care as long as their money and privilge (over workers and protection from consumers) is a nightmare scenario.
Speaking to the point of this thread, in some ways Trump is the best possible candidate for the USA right now, because any of the current alternatives (DeSantis and Haley) would be much more effective in crushing Democracy for limitless one party rule, while Trump has his petty (for values of petty) revenge and grift as a priority. Along with his health and likely deteriorating mental state. But I’m terrified of who will be the VP, and, from a certain POV, it’s very possible that said VP will end up becoming the 2024 Rep[ublican party nominee if Trump trips over his super long tie while stumbling around.
The thing is: You and I see this as a completely idiotic thing to say. But the MAGAts? And even the more sane Republicans? They will be nodding their heads in agreement. "Portugamalese? Never heard of it? These foriners are gabbling something- I bet they don’t even understand themselves! haw haw haw! "
Morons.
The thing is that, while Trump has always been outrageous and said stupid things, the IQ (idiocy quotient) and SC (senility quotient) of his ramblings have been rising rapidly. So yes, they will nod for now, since they are cult members, but the “independents” will notice.
Right, which is why they’ll look for a way out that doesn’t involve “betraying” him. I hear the guy needs some money, you know?
If you are implying they might bribe him to get out of the race then that just wouldn’t work. Trump needs the presidency more than he needs that half billion. Push comes to shove he can get the money, even if it means selling his properties. But he needs the presidency to stay out of jail, at least in his mind.
The very first rambling in that clip is “We have countries that, honestly, nobody has ever heard of.”
Honestly, Donald, because you’ve never heard of a country from sub-Saharan Africa or Eastern Europe or anywhere else doesn’t really mean shit.
You raise a strong point. In the case of a Trump as strong as he was in 2016, I would totally agree.
Now, however, he’s broke, sick, losing what’s left of his edge, and headed for the slammer. Most important to your point, he is going to lose. Sure, the polls right now are whatever, but they are going to get worse and worse for Trump over time (reason: absolutely nothing is going his way right now, and it’s hard to imagine anything, aside from Biden dying or dropping out, that can help him trendwise). So let’s game theory it based on that assumption:
Scenario 1: Trump becomes the nominee and loses
Scenario 2: Trump is bribed to leave by the oligarchs and is replaced by Haley or someone semi-reasonable
This is the last chance for the fat cats, oligarchs, and other assorted TPTB to preserve their power as it currently exists. If Trump is nominated and loses, it’s the death of the GOP. If Trump is nominated and wins, we will have a second American Revolution that truly destroys their power.
Game theory proceeds from the assumption that the decision maker is a rational unitary actor. The GOP is none of that.
That’s what I was hearing in 2020 as what was inevitably happening as soon as he left the White House.
Or we get a repeat of 2020 when the Dems barely had control of Congress and actually lost seats in one of the chambers. I don’t see where this expectation is coming from.
I will find a chair to wait to see that actually happen.
If they had the power to do that, he would not be the virtual clinch on this date in 2020. When they failed to do anything to stop him in 2016 they let MAGA nation take over.
It is indeed a hot mess. But I think its survival instinct will win out this year.
I thought and hoped it would happen sooner, but it is happening now.
From our outstanding result in 2022, as well as several special elections since 2020.
Trump also committed insurrection after the 2020 election. Had he just gone away quietly for four years, my guess is that he would win fairly easily this year.
You know about the massive judgment against him for fraud. Do you think he will somehow escape paying that?
And he is going to be convicted on several felony counts.
I don’t understand the logic here. Trump was a terrible president as of the election in 2020, which is why he lost, but he had not yet engaged in election denial and insurrection and dragged the GOP down further. I don’t think it would have been irrational for TPTB to support him in 2020–but it certainly is now.
If a significant number of mega donors in back room negotiations opposed him together and made it clear that they would fight against him in the general were he to be nominated, I think that would have some influence.
Yes, the Red Tide failed to happen and the Senate was secured but 2022 saw the loss of the House to the Freedom Caucus. The special elections are a good sign but let’s be prudent about expectations.
That should have said “after 2020” and I missed the edit. But he remained and remains the frontrunner still – what has kept those potentates from doing what needed done the past 3 years?
It isn’t as easy as people think to hire a hitman, maybe?