Every so often when I visit this thread, I scroll up to the OP and revisit what Aeschines laid out. At first blush … reading the thread title and glossing over the OP, it might look like the OP has to be chopped liver by now.
Actually, though, the OP has pretty much permitted everything that has happened in real life to date. Looking through the “What [does Aeschines] think is going to happen” section of the OP:
Numbers (1) and (2) were essentially fulfilled as written, probably with Haley coming in somewhat further behind than imagined in late January.
So now comes (3), where the boule de merde should be accreting mass. The Republican National Convention is a little over 18 weeks away. Hypothetically, that’s time for something to happen, but signs on the ground are scarce. The conventional wisdom as is stands now is that Trump is ahead in the general, if thinly. The media – even and perhaps especially the so-called ‘liberal’ media – are serving as chaos agents and beating this same drum: Trump’s ahead by a bit, Biden is a weak candidate, Biden’s too old because he’s too old and he’s just too old, etc.
So that’s the apparent hitch in the plan laid out in the OP. When and how is step (3) going to happen, if it’s even in the cards somehow? And for step (4) … could a cabal arise in the GOP that could (a) somehow force Trump out by mid-July without (b) showing any appreciable signs of existence as of today?
I can’t argue with you too much aside from granting Haley a little more grace. I think her vote totals were enough to at least prime the pump given better general conditions (e.g. a more powerful party apparatus that could draw on a credible non-MAGA power base). But yes, it wasn’t like Trump-vs.-Haley was a neck and neck outcome.
I’m interested in @Aeschines take on how Haley’s outcome in the primaries might affect steps (3) and (4) as laid out in the OP.
The problem is that Trump will do whatever he can to burn it all to the ground if they screw him. The losses to the GOP down ballot would be insanely high if they had Trump actively campaigning against them.
Thanks, everyone, for the ongoing and interesting engagement here!
So, per some questions above, I’d like to respond to where I think we’re at in terms of my prediction.
bordelond observed that my points 1 and 2 had largely come true. Haley didn’t win SC, of course, but I think Trump’s rather poor performance has the GOPers spooked, and the media has been writing a lot about the meaning of the numbers. I’d give myself a B+ or so thus far regarding results.
But I am more confident than ever that my prediction will come true for the following reasons:
Trump’s primary results versus the polls have been consistently poor. It’s not exactly what I predicted would happen; it’s actually better. There is a palpable and consistent protest vote against this criminal among a certain segment of conservatives.
As I said earlier, Trump’s physical and mental health are cratering. It’s significantly worse than even the short time ago I wrote the OP. And the media seems to be talking it up quite a bit.
Trump can’t make his bond in either his defamation or his fraud case. That’s a big L for the “billionnaire” and makes his overall legal situation that much worse.
Before this is over, it’s not going just going to be a ball of shit rolling down the hill; it’s going to be a deluge of shit from the sky. I think we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet!
Haley won one state and 5% of delegates at stake on Super Tuesday.
Its only because your predictions border on cold-reading levels of imprecision that anyone could conceivably say they “largely came true.” And the one thing you’ve consistently failed to address is the mechanism whereby this supposed dissatisfaction with Trump among Republicans translates to the 2,429 delegates to the Republican National Convention voting to deny Trump the nomination.
It’s a matter of opinion and judgment. It’s not as though things went in the opposite vector of what I said: i.e., Trump doing better than the polls indicated, etc.
I did in my points 4 and 5. Now you could say that, in point #5, I failed to state a mechanism; I admitted I didn’t have a clear idea by saying “somehow.” But that has been discussed by others since: there could be a rules change, etc.
Just to give one example, what if Trump has all the delegates he needs but is incapacitated (through illness, mental debility, or both) and can’t even show up at the convention? Do they just go ahead and nominate him, hoping for the best? Maybe! These people are idiots. But they are idiots who care about their own races, etc., so maybe they actual do something about the problem.
That said, I think point #4 is more likely: Trump is in terrible shape, he knows it, everyone knows it, so they use carrot (money) and stick (threats of denouncement, etc.) to push him out.
If I had to guess, however, Trump is falling apart so quickly that he will more or less be incapable of continuing and will more or less drop out of his own accord. Knowing his psychology, it sounds imppossible, but everyone has their breaking point.
The entire first half of your thesis is that Trump would go into the convention the clear winner, which was of course blindingly obvious from day one.
The second half is that unknown and unnamed people will perform unknown and untested actions to keep him off the ballot. And your final A and B options have a shitload of daylight between them; it’s like betting on both teams to win a football game.
I’d love to see Trump crash, burn, and take the rest of the GOP with him in the ensuing explosion, but even if he somehowdoes, your OP won’t have predicted it. If you’d outlined the mechanisms by which these things would happen, them sure. Super vague guesses followed by other people discussing how they might feasibly play out doesn’t count.
As it stands, right now you’re closer to Nostradamus than Cassandra.
On reread that post feels harsher than I wanted it to be. I think my tone is more of a reaction to unbridled optimism than to Aeschines specifically and I intended no insult.
And on another note, Trump posted the $90+ required bond for his appeal of the E. Jean Carroll case, so that’s another supposed barrier he’s jumped over. I’m sure his loyal backers will help him with the $425 million bond due in a couple of weeks.
I was just laying out the steps of how it would go down. That part wasn’t intended as some brilliant prediction, however…
Not exactly my thesis. I’m saying the aforementioned “ball of shit” is so bad that something is going to get him. He could croak, he could be so incapacitated by the convention that the GOP has to decide how to handle it, he could be a convicted felon and maybe even incarcerated, and any and all of that could make his poll numbers look absolutely fatal to the party as a whole, resulting in some sort of action.
It’s as if Trump has to drive a car 1,000 miles, but all of the warning lights on the dash are lit. My insight is that, chunking the whole with my right brain active, I can see that he ain’t gonna make it.
You’re focusing the “mechanism” in just one failure modality. I don’t know. It could end up that Trump is the walking dead (already close!) and they just anoint him anyway out of sheer cowardice and fecklessness, knowing that they’re all going down with him. It’s not impossible. I’m just betting against it.
C’mon, I’m at least worth a Criswell!
I am optimistic, though. Either the above happens and Trump can’t be president and the GOP will lose anyway, or we are about to see the greatest, most outlandish, and most downright schadenfreude-licious crash and burn in the history of US elector politics. Heads we win, tails those nazi mutherfuckers lose.
Both parties have rules with procedures allowing them to be changed shortly before the convention. Early in the convention, the rules are voted on.
If Trump could not campaign at all, due to an extended illness or incarceration without internet access, I suppose they would change the rules to give the nomination to someone else, probably DeSantis or Trump’s veep pick.
If the candidate with most delegates is behind in the polls, many of their supporters will either disbelieve the polls or think they will change. So even if Trump fell behind, in polls, due to a felony conviction, nothing would change at the convention.
There are real differences between the parties in the degree to which they accept the findings of climate science, evolutionary biology, and the science of epidemiology. But they are similar when it comes to rejecting scientific polls which say they are significantly behind.
That’s the thing with the conspiracy mindset these people have. If everything is rigged, then there’s no reason to believe anything you see in the news. Polls show the poorly-preserved corpse of Donald Trump is lagging behind President Biden, who has been given rejuvenation treatments by the benevolent aliens who just landed in front of the White House? Fake news!
I mean, they rejected out of hand the results of the one poll that really matters - the 2020 election results - so why would they let some lesser poll affect their judgement?
One of the key staffers to depart was Elliot Echols, the RNC’s political director.
The shakeup comes after the RNC met in Houston last week to install a pair of new leaders selected by Trump chairman Michael Whatley, who previously led the North Carolina Republican Party, and Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump as co-chair. Former RNC chair McDaniel agreed to step down last month after Trump formally endorsed Whatley.
This right here is pure craziness and terrifies me a little bit. The entire Republican party is now effectively an arm of the Trump campaign. At least that’s how I read this.
I was speaking to my own mother a couple of weeks ago and I told her at the time I think we are watching the death of a major political party in real time right now. Everyday just convinces me even more. I don’t care to try to predict what it will look like or what the aftermath will be but I can say this: It will be MESSY