Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024

[Jihi]

@mjmartin

I think it’s hard to motivate people to vote when their vote doesn’t matter. California is going to go for the Democratic nominee no matter what. There really isn’t a ton of incentive for a person that isn’t that into politics to be interested enough to vote in a situation like that. It is reason number 600 or so why the electoral college should be abolished.

100% agreed. I know the “every vote matters” mantra is true and important. If you’re a random democratic voter though in New York or California I can’t get as upset if you decide not to vote given the realities on the ground. Except to note that it’s a bad habit to get into. And it’s very possible that your state, or a state that you move to in the future, could end up being an important swing state. So vote anyway just to stay in the habit.

I am a resident of Michigan. So my ass will be voting VIA mail regardless of any circumstances. And anyone around me that has ever said anything even mildly negative about Trump or anything policy related to Trump I I will make sure to encourage them to vote.

And it feels like a hijack, so I will keep it short, but I just wanted to to third the support for the abolishment of the EC. I thought for a long time it’s inherently anti-democratic. And of course it’s a constitutional thing and as long as Republicans receive unequal representation through it they will never allow it to be changed in any way.

[Aeschines]

Good point. He’s driving the bus now–and all of the lug nuts are loose.

[PhillyGuy]

@Jihi

I know the “every vote matters” mantra is true and important.

Too few Republicans exercised their civic duty to oppose authoritarianism. But, in a utilitarian sense, no individual vote counted.

The presidency being decided by one vote in November is virtually impossible, and that probability doesn’t change much by my living in swing state Pennsylvania.

Bringing it back to the thread, there is even less chance that Trump’s nomination could have been decided by a single primary vote. Nominations are officially made, at the convention, by acclamation.

A better-to-me reason to vote is fulfillment of a civic duty.

[Jihi]

@PhillyGuy

A better-to-me reason to vote is fulfillment of a civic duty.

Agreed. Hence my comments about it’s a bad habit to get into, not voting.

[Stratocaster]

@Jihi

If you’re a random democratic voter though in New York or California I can’t get as upset if you decide not to vote given the realities on the ground. Except to note that it’s a bad habit to get into.

I think it’s a tremendous, beneficial habit for lots and lots of people to take up. The average American voter is misinformed or uninformed, lacks critical thinking skills, and bases their voting decisions on superficial nonsense. And yet we grant that collective the enormous power of determining our immediate political future. It’s what got us Trump.

Unfortunately I can’t think of a better system, but I hold out hope that one exists. Our democracy in particular is a dysfunctional shit show.

[Pleonast]

@Stratocaster

@Jihi

If you’re a random democratic voter though in New York or California I can’t get as upset if you decide not to vote given the realities on the ground. Except to note that it’s a bad habit to get into.

I think it’s a tremendous, beneficial habit for lots and lots of people to take up. The average American voter is misinformed or uninformed, lacks critical thinking skills, and bases their voting decisions on superficial nonsense. And yet we grant that collective the enormous power of determining our immediate political future. It’s what got us Trump.

Unfortunately I can’t think of a better system, but I hold out hope that one exists. Our democracy in particular is a dysfunctional shit show.  

To be clear, the goal of universal suffrage isn’t for a polity to govern well, it’s for the governed to be the polity.

[not_what_you_d_expect]

If enough democrats decide not to vote because the state is very blue, it won’t stay blue. Please vote.

This PSA has been brought to you by the nagging voice in my head.

[John_Bredin]

There’s a whole ballot of offices to fill below the Presidency. And even in the bluest states guaranteed to vote for Biden in the general election (NY, Cal., IL, etc.), millions of voters live outside the areas guaranteed to send a full set of Democrats to the county council, state assembly, and Congress.

I live in a county in metropolitan Chicago, and Republicans do have a chance at some offices around here. Generally not rootin’ tootin’ fire-eatin’ MAGATs, but that relative moderation doesn’t always translate into a practical difference in voting totals in the assembly or Congress.

Don’t some districts in “reliably blue” NY State send Republicans to Congress, hence George “that’s my name today, anyway” Santos? Isn’t at least one of the Freedom Caucus no-compromise loudmouths from “reliably blue” California?

Come out, come out (to vote) wherever you are!!

[Stratocaster]

@Pleonast

To be clear, the goal of universal suffrage isn’t for a polity to govern well, it’s for the governed to be the polity.

Yes, of course. And as I said, I offer no better alternative. But the system as it exists places existential decision making in the collective hands of a body that is completely ill-equipped to respond.

The fact that most Americans seem to believe that the president is some kind of wizard who controls the economy is evidence enough to show these dummies will predictably make bad choices. Even when they make the best of the available choices, IMO it’s just dumb luck.

[Gordon_G]

@Aeschines

Now I’m going to call another–and I’m fairly confident I will be correct: Trump won’t be the GOP nominee this year.

Maybe you’re right. But I don’t see the Redshirts giving up their main mascot unless his dementia becomes VERY apparent.

And I’m not sure what to root for. Nikki Haley would almost certainly defeat Biden I think, while Biden is about 50-50 to beat Trump. The fascist tendencies of the MAGA crowd wouldn’t go away if Haley becomes POTUS, so it may be best to maximize the Blues’ chances, even if that risks another term for the psychopath.

[Aeschines]

@Gordon_G

Maybe you’re right. But I don’t see the Redshirts giving up their main mascot unless his dementia becomes VERY apparent.

It’s very apparent at this point to everyone but them. But yes. Since they are a cult, they are firmly in the habit, one might say the ritual, of reflexively denying or actually celebrating everything negative about their Orange Christ.

And I’m not sure what to root for.

Biden and the Democrats.

Nikki Haley would almost certainly defeat Biden I think,

Even if Trump were to become incapacitated, which I still think is quite likely, I don’t think the GOP would choose Nikki. She’s seen now as a traitor to MAGA, so they would pick another Trump-fellating fascist. Nikki would be a smart choice, but they seem hell-bent on going down with the mad zeppelin. If they were to choose her, it would seem “weird” and “off,” and I think the odd vibes would cripple her candidacy, and she would lose. (Had she won the primary outright, yes, I think she had a palpable chance but would probably lose anyway.)

while Biden is about 50-50 to beat Trump.

Unless Biden is dead or incapacitated, he is going to crush Trump. Trump now wants to debate Biden–as soon as possible, he says! Please do. Trump’s dementia will be in full bloom as Biden tears him a new asshole (and new every other orifice) for his crimes and depredations.

The fascist tendencies of the MAGA crowd wouldn’t go away if Haley becomes POTUS, so it may be best to maximize the Blues’ chances, even if that risks another term for the psychopath.

We always want to maximize the Blues’ chances–we’re Democrats! Aren’t you?!

[Aeschines]

Trump’s “bloodbath” comment is more unhingery:

The Implausible Deniability of "Bloodbath"

This whole thing is about to implode.

[Gordon_G]

@Aeschines

We always want to maximize the Blues’ chances–we’re Democrats! Aren’t you?!

Perhaps you misunderstood my comment. Of course I hope for Blue victories. Trump candidacy should increase Biden’s chance, but a Trump victory would be far more dreadful than Haley victory. See the dilemma?

You and many others think voters are sure to reject Trump this November. But you thought this in 2016 (Trump won) and 2020 (Trump failed by a razor-thin margin). I am less optimistic. Trump leads the polls in every swing state:

General election swing state polling Biden vs. Trump U.S. 2024 | Statista

[bordelond]

@Gordon_G

Trump leads the polls in every swing state

Trump, specifically, led in every swing state in the Statista online surveys taken between February 12th and February 20th. Further information about their inputs and methodology is paywalled.

[Aeschines]

@Gordon_G

Perhaps you misunderstood my comment.

I did and apologies. I don’t know you or your politics very well yet. Mucho gusto!

Of course I hope for Blue victories. Trump candidacy should increase Biden’s chance, but a Trump victory would be far more dreadful than Haley victory. See the dilemma?

Yeah, this has been debated in the Haley thread. I myself had preferred Haley winning (even if that gave the GOP a better chance of winning) over giving Trump any chance at all of winning.

You and many others think voters are sure to reject Trump this November.

One second on that.

But you thought this in 2016 (Trump won)

I thought Hillary would win based on the shitty polling and analysis of the time, yeah.

and 2020 (Trump failed by a razor-thin margin).

It really wasn’t. The election was called on election night. “Close” or “close adjacent,” maybe, but not “razor-thin.”

I am less optimistic. Trump leads the polls in every swing state:

The polls have cross the “complete dogshit” line, and the actually results are not favoring Trump. He has been behind his polling in every primary, sometimes by up to 20 points! (Meanwhile, Biden has completely destroyed in his primaries this year.)

The pollsters are not able reach young people on either landlines or cell phones. The samples are small and the methodology is degraded. Here’s a good story on kos:

The Polls Are Still Wrong. Let's Talk About Why.

The media loves its horse race so much, you know that they’d report on anything they could to make it seem neck and neck. If they could write a story on the many 2020 Biden voters switching to Trump, which would of course include interviews, they sure as hell would. I have seen not a single story like this. OTOH, I have seen plenty of bits on the increase in Never Trumpers, Haley voters refusing to vote for Trump, etc.

We have consistently won special elections and just plain elections (Andy Beshear in Kentucky, for example).

Biden beat Trump in 2020. That will happen again unless Trump wins over voters who didn’t vote for him the last time. The only type of evidence that suggests that’s happening is shitty polls. Nothing else. He’s going to crash and burn harder than a certain dirigible did at Lakehurst, NJ, in 1937.

[Czarcasm]

Not even close.

[Aeschines]

Mark my words!

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Gordon_G

Maybe you’re right. But I don’t see the Redshirts giving up their main mascot unless his dementia becomes VERY apparent.

As was pointed out in another thread, our buddy Mitch McConnell zoned out completely in public not once, but twice. I mean, completely, unequivocably his mind left for parts unknown for a long time in the middle of two press conferences.

And the result? "“Nothing to see here, he’s perfectly fine, don’t believe your own lying eyes.” And that was it.

[Czarcasm]

There isn’t enough rope, there is no final straw, and there is no one step too far. If it was found out that Trump loved to stomp on puppies, there would be congresscritters talking about evil puppies the very next day.

[Aeschines]

He himself is on the verge of mental, physical, and financial collapse. If he simply died before the election, it wouldn’t surprise me.

Another factor in favor of my argument that is new since I wrote the OP is that the GOP in the House in is complete disarray. Yeah, they were bad before, but now it’s open internecine warfare. Ken Buck just quit. This kind of situation makes it more likely that GOP members will quit or call out Trump, thereby increasing the chaos.