That is likely, but I think it’s also compatible with Trump instinctively feeling it would be good theater anyway.
TIL! That is funny. 
By his own words … yes, he would.
WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump said it would be “my great honor” to go to jail for violating a gag order imposed by the judge who will hear his upcoming trial on charges stemming from a hush-money payment to a porn star.
“If this Partisan Hack wants to put me in the ‘clink’ for speaking the open and obvious TRUTH, I will gladly become a Modern Day Nelson Mandela - It will be my GREAT HONOR,” Trump posted on Saturday on his Truth Social platform.
That’s Trump saying, not thinking. Trump will say anything, but there’s no way he’d actually do that.
On the contrary … a short tolerable session in jail would place Trump even more firmly at center stage.
Yup. You can’t ignore the showmanship factor here.
Hitler spent less than a year in prison, and it did him and his evil cause no harm whatsoever, instead redounding to his benefit.
Except that’s not how US jails work in real life. There won’t be any cameras looking at him, and he won’t have a phone. He’ll be entirely cut off from his daily sustenance of Pro-Trump media.
Except that Hitler at least actually served as a soldier in WWI, and knew he could handle the discomfort. I don’t think Mr. Bonespurs is going to be quite so blasé about the potential for cavity searches and the like.
Yeah, Trump won’t like being in jail, and he would probably like it a lot less than he suspects he would. And true, he certainly wouldn’t enjoy being cut off from his narcissistic feedback loop with the media and his base. But he could still instinctively go for that because he thinks being in jail a few days would serve his purposes (and a quote was produced above to that effect).
Now, I should make clear that I don’t think any of this shit is going to work out for Trump. More and more, I don’t think he’s going to make it to the convention. Another Salon article talked about a Spiro Agnew-esque plea deal in which he gets all the charges against him (state and federal) by agreeing with all of the prosecutors to drop out of public life permanently. I think that makes a lot of sense.
He has enough trouble sitting quietly in court. It seems unlikely jail would be a strategic movie he’d willingly take given the lack of control he’d have over his own activities. It simply isn’t in his character, though I suppose people can surprise you sometimes. And all joking aside, if Trump does have issues with incontinence, he’s not going to want to be jailed for a few days where he’ll have to admit to others he’s having issues.
I can’t see that happening, because I can’t see any of the prosecutors actually believing that Trump would honor any such “deal”. Look at how he rants about the gag orders that place bare minimum restrictions on his actions for the duration of the trials. There’s no way he’d sit still for not being allowed to run for office, or shoot his mouth off in public, in perpetuity. Any such deal wouldn’t last a week, and we’d be right back where we are now, just with more time wasted.
Re posts here saying Trump has no self-control, here’s one factoid.
He spent five years in military school. Is it easy to get kicked out of military school? No. You are probably there because of prior self-control issues. But, to make a long story short, he did well there. Best in his class well, as he says? No. But better than most.
Too long ago to be determinative? Yes. But he is still the same person, with passage of years giving him, if anything, a bit more self-control.
So he’s liable to go up to a line where he risks jail for contempt, and not go over it.
There would be some enforcement mechanism, wouldn’t there? Plea deals are done all the time that have some sort of “you can’t do this ever again” type stipulation, such as, “You can never be an officer of a public company again,” etc.
Also, they can see, as can we all, that if Trump isn’t the nominee in 2024, he will never be the nominee again. Because the man is clearly suffering from dementia right now. So time itself would be the big enforcer of such a deal.
Yes, but that mechanism would have no effect on Trump. He’ll promise to honor it while he’s in court, and then immediately violate it on his way out of court.
Unless the courts have cops following him 24 hours a day ready and willing to arrest him as soon as he commits a violation, there will be at least some delay between the violation and the punishment, and that gives everyone else enough time to play the “Oh, should we really punish him for that?” game we’ve seen so much of since he left office. He’ll exploit that window of opportunity as much as he possibly can.
The only way he’d follow the restrictions on any such deal is if he died immediately after he signed the papers.
I agree that a young Trump would be a big pain in such a situation. But if he is off the ballot in 2024, isn’t that a good deal that the prosecutors would go for? I think it’s a no-brainer!
I can’t see how this would work. What does it mean to, “drop out of public life permanently?” Refuse to run for public office? What happens when the RNC nominates him anyway? What specific activities would he be barred from?
There was actually nothing in Agnew’s official plea deal that required him to resign from office – it was a gentlemen’s agreement that he would do so. Like @Horatius, I find the idea of a Trump being bound by a good faith understanding to be laughable.
Well, there’s the issue that’s been discussed here in other threads, is it even possible to keep him off the ballot for 2024? He’s locked up the nomination according to the usual rules, and lots of people say there’s no mechanism for removing him, particularly if he isn’t willing to go. Would a plea bargain in New York have any weight in other states that refuse to remove him?
But aside from that, you also want him to shut up about everything, as well, and there’s no way he won’t be tweeting up a storm from now until the day he dies. He’ll be issuing MAGAt Fatwas against everyone he thinks has done him wrong, and that is still going to distort the public discourse in ways we will hate.
I don’t think it’s complicated at all. First, he would drop out of the 2024 race, and I’m sure that there is something he could do, now, in a concrete manner so that it would be impossible for him to be nominated and/or appear on ballots. Even if there were nothing of that nature, I’m sure the deal would say something along the lines of, “If you refuse to suspend your campaign immediately or start it up again later, then you will immediately be taken into custody and put behind bars,” etc.
He would be required to suspend his campaign and say that he will not accept the nomination. Would the GOP still nominate him despite that? Maybe. But then Trump would have to refuse it or face a penalty (probably prison). Would the GOP then nominate him anyway? Maybe, inasmuch as they’re fucking idiots. But Trump would then be required per the deal (I imagine) to notify secretaries of state that he must not appear on the ballot, etc.
He would probably be required not to participate in social media or some such thing. But the really important thing is that he not win in 2024. After that, he’s done, since his nazi base will not continue to worship him with his potential for power gone.
Spiro Agnew did not try to end democracy in America. I’m serious.
If what you and Salon suggests were to happen, Trump and his acolytes would have accomplished that mission. No way. The mass protests that would follow would make 1968 look like…like…hmm, well, you know what I mean.
And he would have violated his deal and be taken into custody. Sure, he could call for a new civil war in order to save himself, but it wouldn’t work, and he would be in prison for sure, on both the old and new charges.
To extrapolate on the logic of posters here saying that such a plea deal is impossible, doesn’t that imply that none of the prosecutors involved is thinking about a plea deal at all? That doesn’t seem likely to me. And if they are thinking of such a possibility (which certainly they are), then what kind of plea deal would they accept?