Trump won't be the Republican party nominee in 2024

George W. Bush, a Yale man from Connecticut, became one of them after moving to a Texas ranch, turning on a fake southern accent, and wearing a cowboy hat. Likewise JD Vance, a US Senator and Yale law grad, routinely rails against “the elites”. Elon Musk whips up resentment against “the establishment”.

Trust me when I say that rich folks have no problem at all managing the base’s perception of who is elite/establishment and who isn’t.

It makes just as much sense… :crazy_face:

Yeah, somebody is trying to blame Biden for trumps mistakes.

No, its trumps fault.

Unless dead or medically eliminated.

No, Trump bears a great deal of blame for his role, but Biden has contributed his share of mistakes.

To reply further would be a thread hijack.

Moderating:

If replying further would be a thread hijack, then initially replying is also a thread hijack. Don’t do this jerkish thing where you say what you want and then foreclose additional discussion with the, “but it would be a hijack,” maneuver.

Let’s drop discussion of Biden in a Trump potential party nominee thread. If you want to discuss Biden, do it in a Biden thread.

At that point, the Republicans have two possible choices

  1. Ignore the result of the primary, break party rules, piss off a bunch of their Trump voting base, irrevocably fracture the party and lose the election.
  2. Keep Trump as the nominee, lose the election then try picking up the pieces afterwards, hoping that by the time 2028 rolls around people will no longer be fanatically devoted to a twice losing jail bird.

Either way Biden wins. But in the latter they still have a chance of returning to relevance.

The Republican party did just that calculus after Jan6, after after a few moments of honest anger (how dare THEY be put at risk as well) went with the “all-in” option on Trump. Option one hasn’t been on the table in years. Not that I think you were suggesting it as likely!

Exactly, if people are worried that Trump could be, as he was in 2016, elected by razor-thin margins in swing states, thenhe is in danger in losing in the same way in 2024. Indeed, as he lost in 2020.

Trump has no special power or secret sauce in this election.

I think you have stated the issue well.

The party is already a fractured mess, however, and is getting well. Still, you point out that there is significant possible downside to this choice.

Yeah, IOW, you take the clean (or cleaner) L.

There are other things that are possible, which I have pointed out way back in this thread, the primary one being work out a deal with Trump to exit the race voluntarily. You put in a more “normal” Republican who would still lose but could perhaps help downballot races a bit and help start rebuilding the brand now instead of later.

OK, that requires some type of political competence, so, unlikely, right?

Yes, but I still think Trump won’t be the nominee. He’s going to be found guilty, and I think he will forthwith go into complete mental and physical collapse. He won’t bow out–he’s gonna fall out.

I just can’t see this happening. Trump’s ego is too large, and he’s gone all-in on pursuing re-election to the presidency as being his strategy for avoiding prison (as well as to strike back at his opponents). I suspect that he feels that he “owns” the GOP at this point, and he will not willingly give up that control, or the chance at the presidency.

The only way that the GOP rids itself of Trump is through his death or incapacitation.

You are right. It would involve a heavy dose of both carrot and stick, but I think these fools are incapable of any action at this point.

Basically correct, but it may be the case that Trump himself tries to negotiate something so as to leave and grab as many goodies as possible on his way out.

He’s not wrong because he does own the GOP. They finalized the sale of its soul a few days following the events of January 6, 2021. Unless Trump is either dead or a babbling incoherent mess of a man (I mean moreso than usual), it’s simply unthinkable that he won’t be the nominee. He owns the GOP lock, stock, and barrel.

He has the same special power and secret sauce that he had in 2016 - a spectacularly ignorant, stupid voting base incapable of critical and selfless thought.

Or we are in danger of him winning the same way in 2024; this is the problem - there is nothing predictable here, especially if there is a dependence on logic, common sense and bog-standard civility.

  1. Rule that trump is too sick to serve. Doubtful, but only if trumps signs of feeblemindedness gets so obvious, everyone sees it.

They definitely are not brave enough to do this.

Probably not. Nor organized enough.

Given that RNC leadership was purged earlier this year, and replaced with Trump loyalists, I have a difficult time figuring out who would actually make such a ruling now.

HAHAHA, the ball of shit just got bigger and shittier.

GUILTY on ALL COUNTS.

Fuck you, Trump, you scumbag mutherfucker. You cheap criminal ****. I gloat at your guilty verdict and new status as a felon. I LAUGH AT AND MOCK YOU, you despicable ****.

And I laugh at the GOP and their Orange **** FELON Christ. LMFAO!!! Have fun with your candidate, HAHAHAHA!

This won’t change anything.

Why would you have such confidence? And what won’t change–the candidates’ (seemingly) running neck and neck? Well, someone has to win…

Sorry, my statement was relative to the subject of the thread — Trump being the Republican nominee for President.