The objective fact is that the party has been in lockstep behind Trump, even before he became president (e.g. denying that Biden won the election fair and square for the last 4 years).
If you want to speculate that really it’s the party using Trump, and they could jettison him at some future point, then fine.
But I don’t think anyone should take comfort from that because it’s baseless.
Back to the legality, if there were a legal dispute and, say, the plaintiff could show that the other side specifically considered the disputed point and went in another direction (in the plaintiff’s favor), I think a judge would certainly rule in favor of the plaintiff.
So, since it’s clear that both the House and Senate first contemplated using “served” language and then decided to go with “elected” language, a reasonable court could certainly rule in favor of Trump being appointed the role, or running as VP or whatever. And, this court is not that reasonable – I think there’s is little doubt they would rule that way if this were to come before them.
I cannot imagine Vance paying the least attention to Trump. Why would he? I wonder if Trump is running anything currently or just following the project 2025 playbook.
There have been many powerful éminence grise throughout history but 45/47 won’t be one. If not on the throne, he wants to be in front of the throne. He wants the attention.
Yeah, he’s a compulsive spotlight-grabber; being the power behind the throne just isn’t in him.
I know this will be broadly dismissed here, but here’s an original take on why Trump is bringing the third-term thing to the forefront now. Simon Rosenberg (my diaresis, bolding, and italics):
As we say here little cracks can become big cracks, little wins can become big ones and courage can become contagious. … [In] politics you can never know when the damn will break, a deal will get done, a bill will pass or an ad or message will break through. You just have to keep at it, relentlessly, until it does. I feel like something has shifted in our politics in the past few weeks. Trump’s invincibility, his “strong man” persona, has been pierced. More are seeing that he isn’t wearing any clothes, more are in their own mind and understanding pulling the curtain back on the Wizard. The reason Trump has begun floating a third term is that he is feeling his influence wane, and he doesn’t want to be a struggling leader who is both losing his grip on Washington AND a lame duck. Trump is a much weaker leader today than he was a few weeks ago.
There is a consideration here we haven’t really explored. Suppose Trump is elected Vice-President with the expectation the President will resign at 12:01pm EST on January 20, 2029. There is a good chance President Greene decides she likes being President and WTF is Donnie going to do about it.
I actually think you’re both a bit right:
Yes. Trump has not consolidated power within the GOP the way that Hitler and Mao did in their respective parties. Why? There are a good number of MAGA fanatics in the GOP, but most of these mutherfuckers sold out to Trump not because they really think he’s great but in order to survive and keep making money as politicians. They will make a similar crass, venal move the moment they think Trump is likely to sink their future prospects. This is especially true of the GOP senators.
But this is also true because the dum-dums did allow a lot of fanatics in. The questions at this point is, Who is more numerous, powerful, and clever? I don’t think it’s clear which way the battle would go.
In part, because he doesn’t need to; the “unconcentrated” power he has in the party from it being full of cultists is more than enough for him to get it to obey him. And Trump ultimately doesn’t care about anything but himself; not the party and not any ideology, just himself.
He doesn’t have a goal beyond himself like Hitler or Mao did; so what happens to the party or his followers when the focus of that cult dies doesn’t matter to him. Maybe it all falls apart in infighting, maybe the white nationalists or fundamentalists fully take over, maybe the plutocrats grab back the reigns of power; doesn’t matter to him.
I think those on the opposite side of the argument, i.e., those who say that Trump could succeed someone else and serve a third term, have finally provided some cites and their case is more credible. That said, it is still unclear how the Supreme Court would rule on the matter, IMHO.
What I am confident in saying, however, is that Trump running as VP so he could serve such an ill-gotten but legal (if legal) third term is a no-go. It’s simply a fundamental weakness going into an election with, “Trump’s gonna be Vice President, but–winky-poo winky-poo–you know what’s gonna happen, doncha?!”
Trump won by a slim margin in 2024, so it stands to reason that, unless he is mega-MAGA-popular in 2028 (which I sincerely doubt, based on current results!), he will lose with any significant disadvantages. Running as VP instead of POTUS would be just such a disadvantage:
Thus, even if it were legal, I don’t think such a scheme would result in success, IMHO.
I think you’re absolutely correct on this point, but it does make the fascist position weaker for it.
That’s such a Roman empire type of move that I shouldn’t rule it out. But it would be extremely unpopular unless it was completely clear, even to Trump’s core supporters, that the old man had become medically incapable of doing the job. And would-be dictators do care about public opinion.
Also, Trump has gotten better at picking subordinates who will remain subordinate.
What I suggested in post 239 was that Trump wouldn’t even be on the ticket, but the campaign, featuring Vance and Anybody as candidates, would be waged with the stated purpose of the resignations to happen shortly after 1/20, and Trump would become president, after being confirmed as VP by the majority-GOP Congress. Doubt if this will happen, but it could. Legally.
And you base this on what exactly? I mean, I’m sure you have some polling data that backs that claim, right?
Yes. I consider it far more likely for him to simply declare himself the winner (whether it works or not) than to try running as VP for any reason. He doesn’t do “cunning” plans, he bulls ahead and dares anyone to stop him. Especially now, when he’s visibly losing it mentally.
The reason Trump has begun floating a third term is that he is feeling his influence wane, and he doesn’t want to be a struggling leader who is both losing his grip on Washington AND a lame duck. Trump is a much weaker leader today than he was a few weeks ago.
I’m not going to be dismissive of this, although I do tend to see an awful lot of wishful thinking along these lines. Still, Trump is being so reckless that cracks are indeed beginning to appear …
If this recklessness tanks the economy in a major way, the repercussions could be much bigger. He’s already done enough to be impeached if it were a saner world not infested with intransigent Congressional Republicans.
The other thing that might drive him to try for another term is the abundance of potential legal woes that might still await him as a private citizen, which he just narrowly escaped with his election win.
Looks like we finally found the point at which she becomes concerned enough to actually lift a finger.
I one hundred percent agree that people shouldn’t be taking comfort from this. And I feel it’s a major problem that a lot of people are doing so.
A lot of people keep thinking that Donald Trump is the problem and that he goes, either by being impeached or retiring or just dying of old age, things will go back to “normal”.
Do you seriously think Donald Trump wrote Project 2025? It’s nine hundred pages long. It’s doubtful he’s even read it.
The same thing about voter suppression. Do you think Trump wrote those bills?
But somebody did. Some group of Republicans sat down and wrote out a detailed plan for turning the United States into a one-party dictatorship.
And while Trump is rambling on about deporting Venezuelans and invading Greenland, that group of Republicans is working on carrying out their plan.
That group of Republicans is a lot more dangerous than Donald Trump is. And when Trump is gone and people are breathing a sigh of relief, that group of Republicans will still be around.
I actually think that quote is more telling than the author may have realized. The press began calling Trump a Lame Duck (an obnoxious misuse of the term) and he found an effective counter to it. By saying he is open to a third term it eliminates their ability to call him a lame duck for the entire 4-year term (instead of just during the last 2.5 months, after someone else had been elected, which would be appropriate).
Something similar happened in Minnesota in 1976, after Walter Mondale resigned to become Carter’s VP. The then-governor Wendell Anderson resigned, and in a back-room deal his Lt Governor who became governor appointed Anderson to the Senate to complete the last two years of Mondale’s term. (They were all Democrats.)
Two years later, Anderson lost decisively in his reelection bid, due to the scandal of how got into the senate in the first place. (In typical Minnesota-nice fashion, he resigned a few days before his term ended so the person that Anderson lost to, Rudy Boschwitz, would have seniority over other new Senators.) The new governor who had appointed Anderson also lost his reelection bid in a state-wide route for Democrats that year. The people of Minnesota were pissed!