More money is always better than less for a campaign, of course, but ISTM that Trump is such a deeply polarizing and unpopular candidate that money won’t matter. He didn’t need it to win office in 2016, and having it won’t help him keep office in 2020. All the $$$$ in the world might not convince any significant number of voters to change minds this upcoming year. The only thing the money might do for his campaign is simply to pay the bills and keep the machine going.
It probably won’t make much if any difference. A look from 538 is a good intro with lots of links in there. The research does show things like the winners typically outspend the losers. Going past the simple correlation money seems to have diminishing returns. Some of the correlation is probably just those that look like they will win attracting more money to spend. Having enough money to get your name and message out seems to matter a lot. Once you have enough more isn’t bad but it doesn’t seem to make a big difference.
Trump beat both of the two big fundraisers from last Presidential cycle - Bush and Clinton. He’s got the incumbent advantage now and plays it in ways that we haven’t seen before through social media. He tweets …a lot. Pretty much everything he tweets gets widespread media coverage. He’s already taking shots at anyone who looks like they might be gaining traction in the Democratic primary field. We can expect him to still hold his large campaign rallies and get extensive coverage from every single one off them. Those are pretty cheap and can even be net positive money wise if they get enough small donor contributions from the large audience. He’s also going to have the money to spend heavily on all kinds of things during the campaign.
Battleground areas will probably be awash in media buys. Some of the states he won in the midwest were very close. Michigan went his way by IIRC about a quarter percent of the vote. He might be able to spend his way out of a couple tight spots and just barely win a state as a result of massive fundraising. That’s really about the limit of what massive fundraising and spending can do.
I saw this article today. Until March 30, Trump spent more money on Facebook ads than all the 23 Democratic candidates combined.
After March 30, the candidates as a total overtook him, but his total is still more than any other candidate.
Trump spent $4.9M on Facebook ads targeted to women over 55.
The Democratic candidates combined spent $9.6M on Facebook ads to May 18.
Trump has been using the tactic of getting people to send a birthday greeting to him or his wife in order to get the potential donor’s email address, zip code and name. How Trump Is Outspending Every 2020 Democrat on Facebook
Will that help Trump reach his demographic? I don’t know, but I think money is helpful with that. It has helped some of the Democratic candidates.
No cites, but I seem to recall that he was actually very underfunded last time, and still won. Maybe this time he’ll spend oodles and it will have the opposite effect?
I think a useful metric for comparison would be how much did Obama get in fundraising at a similar point in his re-election cycle, as compared to the overall GOP?
Comparing to 2016 isn’t as meaningful because the GOP was splitting their money among the multiple candidates at this point. Whereas the DEMs were also splitting somewhat between Hillary and Bernie. In a re-election cycle it’s somewhat easier to attract large numbers because there is only one place for the money to go, and a pre-existing base.
As to Trump not having as much money in 2016, I recall that his campaign was not a well-oiled machine, full of experienced campaign hands, like other big party campaigns usually are. Add to that that some percentage of the GOP wasn’t yet on board for him, and thought he was probably going to lose anyway. Now, however, the money is flowing because his support is more solid and he has established that he can win.
IIRC, Obama raised $70 million in Q3 of 2011, prior to his reelection year. Adjusted for inflation, that is roughly half of Trump’s current Q3 reported fundraising.
Good to know. Without some deep polling, it’s tough to say why we’re seeing such money enthusiasm for Trump. Perhaps the wealthy are seeing the Bernie/Warren brigade seeming to want to tear down capitalism, so there is enthusiasm from that sector to bolster Trump.
My WAG is that it’s because Trump is the sole Republican candidate while the Democrats are still divvied up among 19 contenders, and also that politics has simply become far more intense and emotional these days compared to eight years ago in 2011. Trump is able to get a lot more people donating to him just because of all the rage from and in both sides.
That could be it. It’d be much cheaper to support Trump than deal with a high wealth tax. Especially since that 2% will soon by 30+% if the income tax is any guide.
I really wish I could find this article… One I read a few years ago, about how being “crazy” impacted a politician’s numbers. Being “crazy” increased your fundraising, but increased that of your opponents even more. (And they had a specific definition of “crazy”. Every politician got called crazy. The ones called “batshit” were associated with this phenomenon. The prime example? Michele Bachmann.)
Trump is charismatic, and has surprisingly high Republican loyalty, but I don’t think the money means all that much anyway. Trump didn’t raise that much money during the 2016 election, compared to Clinton. He still won. I think Obama outraised McCain (himself a very rich guy) but was in turn outraised by Romney. Obama spent his money more wisely (getting early advertising, despite the risk that Romney would swamp him on air in the latter part of the election).
Total Dem fundraising #'s are ~$74 million, w/o Biden, Warren, or Beto announcing yet.
Trumps numbers include the RNC and something called “joint fundraising committees” (which sounds as legal as Enron’s Special Purpose Business Entities, tbh).
Assuming this # is true, I don’t see any concern here. Biden & Warren should clear $20 million easily, Beto… $8? $10? (He got a LOT of donations after the shooting).
This is a fair point also, pretty much any information that comes out of the Trump orbit must be taken with an Everest sized grain of salt. So, the numbers could be made up of anything, anything at all.
Don’t fool yourselves. Trump & Co raised every fucking penny of that (and probably more in unreported dark money that they can plausibly claim to not control - cause that would be illegal). AND, while he’ll spend over market value at venues that put money in his pocket, a HUGE amount of that money will go to micro-targeted online ads and will be effective.
This is an old school street fight. Trump is, in his mind, literally fighting for his life here. There are no boundaries and there is no limit.
We should be okay, but I worry constantly. Trump’s base are easily motivated and ridiculously loyal.
He has choices. He can donate an unlimited amount of unused campaign funds to a charity. He can donate an unlimited amount to a political party (I’d assume the Republicans in Trump’s case). He can donate up to two thousand dollars each to other candidates’ campaign funds. And he can donate up to five thousand dollars each to PAC’s.
He’s not allowed to keep any unused campaign funds for his own personal use.