How fortunate for Trump that facts are irrelevant to Republican primary voters.
The attacks came at a marvelous time for Trump. It gives him the opportunity to be bombastic and talk tough and exploit Islamaphobia, yet not have to offer any credible plan of action. It also showcases Carson’s utter ignorance on foreign affairs, even when compared to Trump. Carson’s downward spiral has begun. It’s beginning to look a lot like 2012, but instead of the unRomney clown car spitting up one failure after another, it’s the unTrump clown car.
His thesis is that there are six filters Trump must pass through in order to win the primary, and the GOP mainstream will be working against him every step of the way. Silver pegged his chances at 2%, which is wildly optimistic but proves that even if you’re wildly optimistic about Trump’s chances he still has a Hell of a long road ahead of him and his trip will be markedly different from, and worse than, what Jeb! or Rubio or even Cruz will have to endure.
His overall thesis is that the party decides nominees, because the party sets a lot of the rules and the party as a whole decides endorsements, which are essential to winning. Trump has provoked something which is best described by that often-misused term “Fear And Loathing”: He angers Republicans for many of the same reasons he scares the shit out of them, so they’ll do what they can to stop him before he becomes one of the last three or four standing.
Me, too, but mostly because it sounds like the safest place to be. I do not trust putting two hotheads with nuclear capabilities in a room like that.
Though at least that one debate where he let Fiorina stomp him makes me think Trump might have a smidgen of self control. But was that only because he didn’t see her as a threat?
So… what’s the most realistic scenario where Trump isn’t the nominee?
A raft of new polls have come out since the Paris attacks, all of which show Trump pulling back into a commanding lead of the GOP field. I have long assumed that Trump and Carson would peter out, leaving Cruz to consolidate the anti-establishment vote and likely win the nomination. Carson does, indeed, seem to have peaked. But Trump has benefited the most of any candidate from the renewed focus on ISIS thanks to his tough-sounding bluster and xenophobic demagoguery.
Seems like he may be unstoppable at this point unless events once again dramatically shift the political focus of the race. Of course, in the event that there are more terrorist attacks in the West, his lead could grow further still.
Well, then it is Barry Goldwater 1964 time for the Republicans once again.
We have to realize that what the Republicans are running with is really reprehensible, that is no leadership at all, but to give the reigns to fear and prejudice.
Okay, I’ll bite. I’m not a Trump fan, but in this particular case, the idea was proposed by the reporter, Hunter Walker, as a gotcha question, and not by Trump. Trump, that shining example of humanity, did not shoot it down immediately as preposterous, but gave a series of increasingly belligerent non-answers, as is his wont. So this is an idea that Trump did not propose and has not said he supports; he merely refused to condemn it.
Of course, he should have condemned it, but the way people have been talking about it you would think it was a central plank in his platform. I can imagine Trump supporting the identification of Muslims (and later there was talk about a registry), but I think it’s all part of the general Republican racist, xenophobic bluster, and not anything specifically Hitlerian on Trump’s part. Still evil, but not the kind of evil some of the news outlets are insinuating.
Trump goes full demagogue: Claims he saw thousands of Arab-Americans cheering in New Jersey on 9/11. This NYT article notes that a search of published news sources at the time uncovers no mention of any such thing.
The scenario where more of the GOP field has dropped out to the point where 27.5% isn’t considered a commanding lead.
I’m looking over Trump’s numbers. The best he’s ever done is 30.5%, and that was back in mid-September. He’s never even come close to 50% on this metric.
There’s still more than a dozen contenders in the field. The GOP doesn’t even have to consider its seriously dirty tricks until Trump is polling at 30% with four left standing.
For those playing along at home: This is Nate Silver Stage-O-Doom 4: Winnowing.
I’m imagining Trump as president. He’ll be at state dinners, and just blurting out things right and left–with no regard for reality–and eventually no one will pay any attention, because he’ll be like your grandmother with dementia, talking about the men who live in her bathroom, making baby shoes all night.
Just saw my first Trump bumper sticker today. I was almost tempted to follow the guy’s car and ask him at the next stop light, “What were you thinking?”
You don’t think the US intelligence agencies already have lists of people and their viewpoints. Have you seen the size of the NSA’s facilities? That’s just one intelligence agency.