We aren’t yet at peak Trump, but the collapse is predictable, and so I will predict it.
A lot of the media (and people on here) have largely misidentified Trump’s core of support, because it falls into two media blind spots. The first is the lazy tendency to put everything on a left-right axis; the second is the assumption that since Trump is a racist idiot, and everyone knows conservatives and Republicans are racist idiots, that Trump is appealing to the core elements of the GOP.
But in fact, a major reason for Trump’s success is because he is attracting Democrats to the GOP primaries. (e.g.) The media have somehow been able to report both record turnout for GOP primaries and depressed turnout for Democratic primaries without taking the fairly obvious step of putting the two together, probably because their assumption is that people that appeal across party lines must be “moderates” or “centrists.”
The blue-collar whites that are his base used to be a core Democratic constituency; they have felt edged out of a party now dominated by social progressives and racial minorites, but neither do they fit in with the bible-thumpers-libertarians-and-CEOs GOP. One of the key distinguishing features of Trumpkins is their sense of disinfranchisement (cite). Understanding Trump’s support thus far explains why he will not win the GOP nomination.
[li]The people who are supporting him, by their own definition, do not feel represented by any other major political figures in the GOP (or anywhere else) … which means are not especially socially conservative, not especially small-government fans, nor especially any of the things that most of the rest of the party is. Thus, he’s going to have a hard time growing his numbers, he does have a ceiling, and so far he hasn’t been many people’s second choice. In the early part of the race, with a dozen candidates, you can win with 30%. Not so much later on. And while doing things like attacking George W Bush and supporting Planned Parenthood resonate with his disaffected base, they hurt him with the bulk of Republicans.[/li]
On a purely practical level, the fact that a significant fraction of his support comes from Democrats spells trouble, because the contests from here on out are mostly closed ones. Moreover, all of the states thus far have had proportional delegate allocation, so while Trump has won 67% of the states so far, he’s only won about 45% of the delegates. That’s all going to start changing, and here’s how this will play out.
Over the next ten days, there are 11 contests; but 8 of them are closed (thus far, Trump has only won 1 of 4 pub-only primaries). Trump will probably win about 9 of those 11; Cruz will take Idaho, probably Kansas, maybe Maine.* Kasich could steal Michigan, but more likely will finish a strong second, enough to justify going on. Rubio will finish a solid 2nd in several states, and thus will also stay in. Winning that many states will intensify the “Trump is unstoppable” panic.
March 15 will be Peak Trump: that’s the date of the Florida primary, which is both closed and winner-take all. Also on the same day: Illinois (open, w-t-a), Missouri and Ohio (semi-closed, w-t-a). North Carolina as well but it’s proportional, so it has much less sway in the delegate count. Kasich will win Ohio. Trump will win Illinois, and either Trump or Cruz will win Missouri. Florida will be the decisive race, and one of three things will happen:
- If Trump were to win Florida – which is likely – the delegate count on 3/16, assuming Trump wins Florida and Missouri, will be something like
Trump 720
Cruz 360
Rubio 185
Kasich 125
Which looks bad, and will make the talking heads swear Trump is inevitable …until you realize that Rubio losing Florida will effectively destroy his candidacy (and only winning Ohio will also destroy Kasich’s). There will be three-week lull in the race, where the only contests are closed, winner-take-all races in Utah and Arizona, (which will go to Cruz), and during which time Rubio and Kasich drop out, and way more of their supporters will go to Cruz than to Trump.
From there on out, nearly all the contests are states that are closed, meaning Cruz is much more likely to win them, and Winner-take-all, meaning they will count much more than Trump’s early proportional wins.
Even if Trump takes New York, New Jersey and a couple medium-sized states (say Maryland and West Virginia), Cruz will take California, and they will go to a brokered convention roughly tied at around 950 delegates of the ~1200 needed … but Cruz will have all the momentum, and will be seen as much more electable in the general. The GOP leadership despise Cruz on a personal level, but that doesn’t go for the kind of people who are actual delegates. Neither the Trump nor Cruz people are going to settle for any kind of compromise establishment guy, and Cruz will be more appealing to the ~300 Rubio/Kasich delegates.
2) If Rubio stays in after 3/15, knowing it’s going to a brokered convention… much the same thing will happen anyway. The strategy – play for a strong third place, and hope to get elevated by backroom deals at the convention – will turn people off, and it will be pretty hard to tout himself as “electable” in the general. He won’t win states (and hence very few delegates), and even if he succeeds in being a spoiler by splitting the non-Trump voter in someplace like Wisconsin, that will just increase the calls for him to drop out.
3) Should Rubio win Florida, on the other hand … it probably still won’t make a difference, though it will just mean a lot more acrimony. Having Rubio in until the end will continue to split the anti-Trump vote, and he could well peel off a few states from Cruz. However, unless Rubio is able to either 1) beat Cruz in winner-take-all states like places like South Dakota, Indiana and Nebraska, or 2) beat Trump in places like Maryland and New Jersey, he’s doomed to third place … which means kingmaker but not a king. Even if Rubio takes California, they’d go to the convention with Trump at ~1000, Cruz at ~600, Rubio at ~500, Kasich at ~100. The Rubio people will go to Cruz before Trump, especially if Trump seems to have been fading down the stretch. That would be somewhat close-run, though, and Trump if could steal a few states as the fat end of a 40/30/30 split, he might slide over the 1200 delegate mark.
Thus, Trump’s best chance of getting the nomination is to lose Florida. I don’t think he’ll do it.
Cruz’s victory in the general, is, of course, a foregone conclusion. 
Mock away.
- I started this earlier today, and was called away. Since then, polls have closed and Cruz does seem to have claimed Kansas and Maine.
