Good morning all.
I have been doing the math. (statistics from Here
There are 2472 delegates available in the GOP primary.
Right now we stand at:
Mr. Trump 673 (needs 564 to win an uncontested nomination)
Mr. Cruz 411 (needs 826 to win an uncontested nomination)
Mr. Rubio 169 (needs 1079 to win, mathematically eliminated pulled out)
Mr. Kasich 143 (needs 1094 to win, mathematically eliminated, still in the race)
Mr. Carson 8 (out of the race)
Mr. Bush 4 (out of the race)
Among the bottom four candidates there are 326 delegates. Once Mr. Kasich bows to the inevitability and withdraws, these 326 delegates are free to support the candidate of their choice once the convention has started.
There are 1397 delegates committed. This leaves 1064 still up for grabs.
Mr. Trump needs to get 53% of these outstanding delegates for an uncontested nomination when the convention opens.
Mr. Cruz needs to get 78% of these for an uncontested nomination. This is unlikely to happen.
However, if Mr. Cruz can get 501, or 47%, of the outstanding delegates he stops Trump from an uncontested nomination and the convention becomes a brokered convention.
***At 912 delegates, Mr. Cruz stops Mr Trump from an uncontested nomination.
A brokered convention releases all delegates from their commitments and opens the race up to a succession of floor votes that will continue until a candidate gets a majority.