There’s already a poll here about who would win a contested convention.
This poll’s about what happens before that point: whether someone will emerge from the primaries with 1237 delegates in hand; if not, whether someone goes into the convention with 1237; if not, whether someone rounds up 1237 votes in time for the first ballot.
Poll coming.
I’m actually not sure how I’m going to respond to my own poll. I figure that there are a lot of ways the ‘contested’ part of a contested convention could resolve itself before the first ballot, or even before the actual convention. For instance, Kasich and Rubio could free their delegates and urge them to support Cruz in exchange for promises of Cabinet positions in a Cruz Administration.
There’s 6 weeks between the end of the primaries and the beginning of the convention, which is a lot of time for wheeling and dealing.
Looking at the math, I think it’s more likely than not that no GOP candidate has 1237 delegates going into the convention. I expect Trump to be closest – I’d guess he’ll have ~1175 delegates.
I’m voting for chaos, both because that’s what I expect and what I want to happen. I read an article over the weekend that even Trump supporters think they’ll just barely have over the required 1237. Even they are not thinking they’ll blast past that number by a healthy few hundred votes, so I’m voting it’ll go at least 2 ballots, hopefully more
Based on the article on the subject by fivethirtyeight.com, it sounds probable that it will be a contested convention.
Of course, Trump could try to change tact and clean up his act. By now, he’s probably got a better sense for what sorts of things he would need to say to clean up his image and how to present himself as a better option for everyone.
And really, it makes no sense for him to not change up what he’s doing. He’s far enough along that the polls in the upcoming states are probably pretty accurate. The people there know what they’re going to be getting. And, proceeding on that straight line, he’s not going to get to where he needs to. And, in a contested convention, he’ll almost certainly lose. So it behooves him to switch it up. If he doesn’t then he’s an idiot (which, granted, is possible).
Whether the new thing works its magic, who can say, but it is really his only chance.
Another vote for second ballot. For the reasons the three previous posters said.
At least that’s my prediction amongst the poll choices. I put a bunch more weight on the non-polled scenario where the real convention decision happens in the rule committee before the first ballot.
There’ll still be a second and perhaps subsequent ballots. But they’ll be about the folks who got schlonged in the rules committee slowly agreeing to take their medicine and support the fiction of a nomination by universal acclimation for the cameras.
Trump didn’t spend the time and money to invest in an organization which would have understood how the delegate process works, for example. Had he had a better organization then perhaps, but he is really behind, which is going to kill his chances of getting over the top.
I think the #nevertrump movement will start to hurt now.
As LSLGuy says, the key point will be the rules committee.
I tend to think that the problem was more about his valuing absolute loyalty over ability and experience. Granted, Trump wouldn’t know a straw vote from a straw hat, but his people should have known and prepared for things like the ground-level fights for delegates, even while he was ‘being Trump.’
I am trying to envision a scenario where “nobody has 1237 delegates in hand when the convention begins, but (someone) wins on the first ballot”; either someone would have to be very close when the convention begins and there are enough undeclared delegates to put him over the top, or somebody decides after the convention starts but before the vote takes place to officially drop out and release his delegates.
I don’t see either of those happening that late. The party must realize that if it goes to a second ballot, they might as well nominate whoever they think is going to get the Democrat’s nomination a week later, and have a first ballot majority lined up by the time the convention starts if at all possible. The problem here is, as long as Rubio and Kasich think they have any chance of being a compromise choice if it gets to a second (more likely, third) ballot, this probably won’t happen with enough delegates to make a difference.
Why so many people working under the assumption that Trump wants to win? I find the likelihood of him actually wanting to be President very small, and just wanting all sorts of media attention very high. He’s is trying to lose, as hard as he can, and in the meantime get lots of press coverage from the stupid things he’s said.
His Butler Hires a Buglar to Play Hail to the Chief When He’s in a Bad Mood
Trump lies a lot. But when he says he likes to win, I believe him.
If he hadn’t been trying to lose, in Straight Dope typical poster terms, there’s no way he’d be ahead on delegates. His attention getting takes attention away from opponents. And it’s the only way a guy with his non-conservative history can get conservative votes.
Trump can’t out-Cruz Cruz in getting moderate endorsements. His best shot at the nomination is to consolidate the anti-eGOP (establishment GOP) vote.
I just wanted to say, “Oh, Please! Can we? Can we? Please?”
Trump will be very close at the end of the primaries and enough delegates resign themselves to their fate and they switch to him to avoid stealing the nomination from a guy inches from the finish line. Republicans will feel then had best not alienate Trump’s base so they can count on them in 2020.
Imagine you’re right and Trump started out to prank the Rs and make a big splash for himself, but not to win.
He starts out bombastic and was surprised when the more outrageous his schtick got the better it sold. Now he’s riding a tiger and he wants off.
You’re claiming he wants off and the proof is he keeps getting more outrageous and it keeps working better. Over and over. Trump’s not smart. But he is good at low cunning.
If he was serious about losing all he has to do is change course. He knows that. Get boring. Out-wonk Hillary on one single topic. Study up and develop a Poindexter speech on saving the nuked gay whales or something. And keep delivering it. Renounce his hothead supporters as losers not part of Great.
Easy peasy. But he’s not doing that. Not even a micro-smidgen.
Instead at each turn he’s doubling down on what has worked and continues to work. For a simple compound interest thinker like himself, if something works you double down until she blows up or you walk away with all the chips. So that’s exactly what he’s been doing, is doing, and will continue to do.
Whether she blows up or he gets all the chips is TBD today. But rest assured the evidence clearly shows that he’s in it to win it.
What about the fact that Trump supporters have already said they will intimidate delegates in their hotel rooms — http://mediamatters.org/video/2016/04/05/trump-ally-roger-stone-we-will-disclose-the-hot/209750
TRUMP will have the clear lead, but the interests of Capital will seek to deny him the nomination and thus subvert democratic, popular forces giving the nomination to the Texan reactionary or possibly one of the more shameless whores for big money interests like Paul Ryan. It may be very well possible we’ll have Chicago 2.0 as a result and perhaps even a TRUMP third-party run.
Might be appropriate in the Trump campaign thread. Here it’s a derailment.
I don’t think so. It is surely a factor on whether there is any contest at the convention at all.
Some random thoughts:
The Rules Committee. That’s basically factored into the last choice: the only way the Rules Committee matters is if it changes Rule 40 so others besides Trump and Cruz can be nominated, and if in fact that matters, the mechanism by which it matters is that the nomination goes to multiple ballots, since the vast majority of delegates will be committed to Trump or Cruz on the first ballot.
The time frames: if, as I expect, nobody has 1237 on the morning of June 8, there’s 6 weeks to wheel and deal before the convention arrives: if Trump’s only a few dozen delegates shy of 1237, rounding up those last few dozen - quite possibly even with the help of the ‘Establishment’ to avoid a civil war in the party - is hardly a remote possibility. Or on the flip side, as I suggested earlier, Cruz could get the support of Rubio and Kasich to stop Trump.
And if the Rules Committee doesn’t meaningfully change Rule 40, and there is no resolution before the convention begins, there will be a lot of pressure to try to come to a deal before the first ballot. Stuff can happen quickly once you can get all the players around one table.
I’m one of the two votes (so far) for Cruz winning on the first ballot, but not rounding up the necessary votes until the convention begins, but that’s somewhere between a hunch and a WAG.
I agree, I think now Trump is wanting to lose at the convention stage. That way he will go out with a bang, if he actually runs against Hillary he will go out with a whimper, a slow agonizing whimper.