I am attaching a poll with four options. This is the most unusual race that I’ve witnessed since I started following politics. I’d like to get the collective wisdom of the dope on this most interesting issue. This is the first time I have posted a poll, so please forgive me if I mess it up on this first attempt
I added a fifth option, although my guess is that the fifth option is the least likely outcome. My vote is for Trump winning with a majority of the delegates.
Once FL and OH come in for Donald, it will be all over but the crying.
I think it is possible the convention will be contested, and because Cruz has the highest delegate count of all the non-Trumps, the nomination will ultimately be thrown to Cruz.
Looking at it right now Trump wins with a majority of the delegates. There’s a long way to go, it’s just common sense to assume the current delegate leader will win in the end, but it’s nowhere near decided yet.
At this point, I think any discussion of Trump not getting the nomination is wishful thinking along the lines of “If only 90% of that district has reported their votes, maybe the last 10% are entirely for the underdog!”
Yes, it is possible, but at a certain point it is so statistically unlikely that it’s not even worth thinking about. In my opinion, it is more likely that Trump has a heart attack than that he is voted out.
I’d bet on Trump wins outright at this point – around 80-85% chance. I don’t think there’s any chance (or any more than about 1%) that any other candidate wins outright, so the remaining likelihood would be for a contested convention.