Who do you think the general election candidates will be? I would love to hear reasoning for why.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Math is on Hillary’s side, Satan is on Trump’s.
I put the option of other GOP because there is a possibility of a brokered convention.
I voted Clinton versus Trump based on the delegate numbers alone. I don’t see any other outcome at this point.
Clnton vs. somebody.
I selected ‘Trump vs. Clinton’, as that seems to be the percentage choice.
Sanders is already too far behind on delegate count. Trump seems to be roughly maintaining his plurality nationally. There remain some variables that could still hold it wide open for at least the next month or so, but I’ll leave out the Trump U. foofaraw, as it seems unlikely that could really become a factor until after he’s locked up the nom.
If Trump takes Florida and Ohio next week, I’ll feel a bit more confident.
I voted for Sanders vs. Cruz. My reasoning was that the GOP establishment hates Trump and would like nothing better than to stop him from running. Also, Hillary could very well wind up in jail or on trial before November.
And Satan is now going, “What have I done and how do I get out of this?!” :eek:
I voted when the poll first came, and I think I voted Clinton-Trump, which is certainly the most likely scenario listed. I actually think, though, that the most likely option is one the poll doesn’t (exactly) account for, that the GOP splits, allowing the Democratic candidate to win an electoral landslide.
I thought it through in a little more detail:
Chance no Republican gets a first ballot majority: 33%**
Rubio 2% (maybe still too high)
Other 15% (obviously this would require a brokered convention)
Chance a conservative independent will run if Drumpf is nominated: 80%
The great thing is that even though 90% of the “movement conservatives” might be howling “Noooo! Stop! You’ll bring Hillary down on us all!”, it only takes a tiny fraction of the base to defect to end all Republican hopes. I can’t imagine there isn’t someone out on the Right who either feels it’s better to lose an election than lose the party, or is just plain crazy. Hey, what’s Ron Paul up to these days?
Chance of Trump running as an independent if he is denied the nomination: 40%**
This might be low. I’m thinking he might not run if he can’t plausibly claim the nomination was “stolen” from him; i.e. if he can’t claim a large plurality of delegates and/or popular votes. OTOH, there are a great many implausible claims that he makes on a daily basis, so anything is possible. I also think his ego might not let him run if he doesn’t think he can actually win, which he couldn’t. I suppose there is also some tiny but nonzero chance that he cares even slightly about the long-term welfare of the Republican Party.
** Overall odds of a three-way race 69%**
Chance of Democrat winning same >99%
Potential two-way election matchups
Clinton 80% to win against Trump, 75% against Cruz, 60% against others
Sanders 90% to win against Trump, 65% against Cruz, 55% against others
Overall odds of winning Presidency:
Other Republican 4%
Why do people keep saying this? (Bolding mine) Do you know something no one else knows, or is it simply wishful thinking?
Heh, heh. I hope you’re not offended if I use this sometime (off these boards).
Kind of like the opposite of a Faustian bargain.
I guessed Cruz v Clinton last year and I’m sticking with it. I still just have this weird feeling that Trump doesn’t really want to be President and as soon as he gets within true sniffing distance, he’ll come up with some reason to bail.
I think it’s a pretty foregone conclusion that Hillary will win the Democratic nod. While Trump will undoubtedly win a plurality of the Republic delegates, it seems to me that a brokered convention is likely, and Cruz is in the hot seat to win in the case where everyone except for Trump’s delegates will eventually vote for the number two option.
If it does come down to it (which I disagree, by the way), Cruz is intensely disliked. I think such a convention would either quickly turn to a compromise candidate, or the Cleveland riot police would be out on the floor cracking skulls.
Romney v Clinton
Romney due to a contested convention. Hillary due to an uncontested convention.
Trump vs. Hillary.
Why? Because this is like the Red Sox leading the Yankees 3 games to 0 in the ALCS, and the Cardinals leading the Giants 3 games to 0 in the NLCS, and then asking, “Which two teams do you think will advance to the World Series?”
On the Democratic side, it’s almost certainly going to be Clinton.
On the Republican side, there are a lot of possibilities, mostly due to the likelihood of a brokered convention, but Trump is the single most likely. I think that he’s still at a less than 50% chance, but the remaining 60% or so is split up many ways, because a brokered convention could choose almost anyone. Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, Romney, or Ryan are all possibilities, and it’s even possible (though less likely) that the convention could be brokered and still go for Trump.
Trump vs. Clinton, with a Clinton win thank goodness.
If it’s a brokered convention, it will still be Trump vs Clinton, because Trump will see a brokered convention as a sign the GOP is too fragmented to stop him from running third party, which will cause the media attention to focus on Trump vs Clinton to the exclusion of whichever sacrificial lamb runs under the GOP banner this year.
It will be the Bull Shit Party versus the Democratic Party, with the Republican Party getting the shorter end, just like in 1912. Maybe that nice La Follette, er, Sanders fellow will throw his hat in as well, just to complete the picture, all leading to a 4-4 split in the Supreme Court and one Hell of a Constitutional Moment.
My ramblings to one side, I doubt that will happen. In terms of the actual evidence we have to date, it looks like Trump is the only one on track to being able to win on the first ballot, which will lead to Trump vs Clinton in the conventional fashion.