Predict the election outcome

I’m extremely liberal, and would love to have a Dem president and Senate. Recent events impress me as though the GOP is trying very hard to make that happen. But lately I’ve been having increasingly frequent feelings of dread over the possibility that we might end up with a Republican president (likely Trump or Cruz) and a Repub control of both houses of Congress. (I hope I would feel less strongly if the Repub candidate were someone other than Trump or Cruz, and if the Majority leader were someone other than McConnell.)

So I just thought I’d toss out a simple poll, allowing folk to make their predictions. Me, I’ll stick to my preference rather than my fears, and pick Dem president AND Senate. You?

I went with Dem president and Rep. Senate without having folowed the news on Senate races. I don’t see any way for whoever the GOP candidate is to win the general but I don’t think it will do much downticket. I just don’t see people associating their senator with the clowns running for President. Also state-level and national level elections are totally different beasts these days.

Just want to say that I loathe with a fiery passion all things politics. I pay literally zero attention to what’s going on and I only know things because other people say it and I catch small winds of it.

That being said, even my ignorant ass knows for a 1000% fact that the president will be dem (prolly Clinton). Senate I have no idea.

Hillary/Republican senate. I don’t see Trump or Cruz making it through the general. Trump maybe but no way Cruz does, dude is too creepsville. If the Republicans go full-tilt and do a brokered convention and nominate Paul Ryan, that’s not going to work out either. I don’t think Bernie can pull off the nomination, and I don’t see the Dems making great strides in the Senate.

I chose the first option, more in hope than belief.

(signed) One who has thrice voted for Obama (and hopes to help elect Tammy Duckworth).

This may be true for many people, but there doesn’t need to be direct association for there to be a downticket effect. A substantial fraction of the electorate is really only aware of the Presidential race. They vote the rest of the ballot when they show up, but if they’re turned off by the top of the ticket, they just don’t show up.

Would dearly love to see a Dem/Dem outcome. But I have this nagging sense of dread that four years on, the Repub/Repub backlash will be so much the worse.

From listening to my 80 year old deeply christian Fox News viewer parents, they and their friends are rather upset with the entire idea of Trump and are struggling with the idea of voting at all this fall.

If, and that’s a big IF, a significant number of Republican non-Trumpies decide to sit this one out, then we should see a turnover in the Senate and the movement of a few House seats.

The math favors the Dems, with more Republicans at risk than most years. Also, with Cruz or Trump at the top of the ticket, a substantial number of otherwise Republican voters may take out their frustration on the whole ticket (or stay home). If they bump Trump off by putting Romney or Ryan in, you can be quite sure that 20% will be too angry to vote for any Republican ever again.

Also, this whole Supreme Court fiasco is going to cost a few Republican Senators their job, regardless of how it plays out.

Dem/Dem is my vote.

Very close for Senate. I predict the Dems picking up 4 or 5 seats, making it a possible tie. GOP should pick up none or maybe one.


Hillary should win, barring some disaster.

Dem/Dem.

Republicans didn’t learn any lessons from 2008 and 2012. They are going to get pummeled.

Dem/Dem. I can’t see Clinton taking the presidency but the Republicans holding vulnerable seats in the Senate.

How can it be Dem/Dem if the Dems lose the Presidency?

What he means is Clinton is going to win - and have coattails.

Gotta say, all this talk is making me mighty nervous. Too many experiences of the Dems seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. The turnout will be interesting - and key.

Thread relocated to the Elections forum from IMHO.

I don’t know… part of the lessons of 2008 and 2012 are that you can lose a Presidential election and still do OK at the Congressional level.

More importantly than that, the Republicans have a 10-seat lead right now (8 seat lead if you put the Independents in with the Dems). I think the Dems will gain some seats in this election, but I’m not convinced it will be enough for a majority.