I thought a dedicated prediction thread for the upcoming election would be fun. This can also be a place for “I told you so” and blowing-your-own-horn about your successful prediction after the fact.
Be as vague or specific as you like, and you can make predictions about the US Presidential, Senate, and/or House races.
I’ll go first: Harris will win. She will win the popular vote by at least 6 points. She will win all 7 swing states and at least one unexpected state. Democrats will keep the House and Senate.
A squeaker like last time. Harris wins, loses Georgia but picks up North Carolina. Dems keep the house, lose the senate with some extremely close races.
Let’s put some hard numbers on the board, I’ll predict:
Electoral Vote: 286 Harris – 252 Trump. (Based on Harris keeping the blue wall and flipping NC, but losing GA, AZ and NV)
Senate: 51R – 49D
House: 227D – 208R
As promised, it’s the blue wave at last. The Dems gain control of the executive branch and both houses of congress. Only to have the SCOTUS constantly piss in the soup for 8 more years by red states constantly pushing far right radical agendas. They will have learned nothing.
I’ve toned down some of my Electoral College predictions. I’m still 100% sure that Kamala will win, but I don’t think she will exceed 330 electoral votes.
Democrats take 52-48 Senate majority and the House. Ted Cruz very narrowly loses in Texas.
After one or more unexpected events, some candidates will win, some will lose. Some of the losing candidates will file lawsuits to try to have their losses overturned. Some of the lawyers representing the losing candidates will end up facing legal repercussions for unethical behavior in filing/trying the lawsuits. None of the lawsuits will be successful.
Neither Democrats or Republicans will be completely rid of the other’s ability to stymie their legislative priorities. The country will muddle on.
Apparently I’m going on a limb to say that as far as the EC is concerned, it will not be close. At least 320 EVs for Harris stealing some from Trump’s 2020 total meaning Trump does not turn any states in 2024.
Most likely I think either Trump wins due to EC shenanigans and/or massive amounts of voter suppression; or, Harris wins, Trump finds some excuse for a lawsuit about it and the Supreme court promptly throws the election to him in an act of blatant partisanship. Either way Trump ends up “winning” regardless of the actual votes.
I agree with that. I believe, looking at the map, that any hope of the D’s taking the Senate is frankly a fantasy. Massive upheaval would be required to make such a scenario plausible. The D’s will have the House, by an uncomfortably close but still meaningful margin, but that’s it.
Regarding the Presidency, the statistical situation, to put it lightly, is still pretty fluid. We’re not yet into October and there’s time for significant developments to shake up the deadlock. But I remain sadly convinced that while Harris will win the popular vote by a couple of percentage points, GOP ratfuckery will allow Trump to steal the White House, legitimately or otherwise. I won’t put up a specific electoral prediction, because I think we’re heading into completely uncharted waters.
I think its going to be VERY close. As a statistical exercise I think Harris will win. Those of you predicting >300 ev are delusional imo its going to be a squeaker.
But of course an election is a single event, not a statistical exercise. It could very easily go thr other way.
The real answer is – do not know. But the premise of the thread is that prediction is possible. So:
Because of historic state level polling poor accuracy, look nationally first.
On September 23, 2020, Biden was ahead by 7.3 percent in the 538 national polling average.
Today, September 23, 2024, Harris is ahead by 2.9 percent in the same average.
Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percent, which was roughly 1 percent more than he needed to win in the electoral college.
Do I think that the pollsters have repaired their pro-Democratic tilt? Best guess is – half of it.
That adds up to somewhere between a tie and Trump win. But it won’t be a tie.
Then there is the last New York Times poll showing Trump running 11 points ahead of Lake in Arizona, and 12 points ahead of Robinson in North Carolina. NC polling was September 17-21, which means that most of the polling was before Robinson’s September 19 meltdown (final days of polling likely to be callbacks).
I hate to be hard on the mild Trumpers, but that is so much the opposite of the direction you should go. A Trump-like governor cannot ruin your state in one term. And one senator out of a hundred, when you need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, will not radically change the country. So if the need to put a little excitement in government is irresistible, OK for governor or senator. But given the President’s sole nuclear authority, a Trump-like President can destroy most human life on the planet. That’s the office where you are going to risk a nasty chaos agent?
The answer to my last question appears to be yes. I very much hope I am wrong, but – close win for Trump.
I think Harris wins with a similar EV count that Biden won with in 2020, but with greater margins (high 10,000s / low 100,000s instead of low 10,000s) in the swing states.
ETA: I think the senate will stay 50/50. Democrats will win one of Montana, Florida, or Texas. I don’t know which one, but they’ll manage it somewhat.
Harris will win the popular vote by ~2% nationally as polls miss by a few points in the Democrats direction again. Trump will “win” the EC by flipping AZ, GA, NV and getting Nebraska to change its rules making a 269-269 tie and throwing the vote to House delegations.
This will lead to massive social unrest and protest, including more assassination attempts leading into the reading of the EC votes. Harris will be under immense pressure to find some way to address the fact that Nebraska changing its rules so late is a blatant disregard for free and fair elections, but ultimately will decide that “in the interest of our democracy” she will perform her ceremonial role.
With the backdrop of massive peaceful protests there will be some agent provocateurs that incite violence, causing a massive crackdown by DC police and the national guard. Trump is inaugurated in this state of panic and violence and immediately creates emergency conditions that lead to massive police and military actions in major cities, rounding up immigrants and crushing any protestors. While this is notionally under the guise of “keeping the peace” it is also seen by the MAGA movement as just retaliation for the J6 prosecutions.
The GOP retains the House due to the extreme gerrymanders in a few states and keeping their inroads in NY and other states where the Democrats failed to gerrymander as aggressively as they could have. They also regain the Senate by flipping WV and MT and immediately change the filibuster rules to push through large parts of the Project 2025 plan, providing legal authority for the deportation action that was begun as an emergency response. Thomas and Alito retire and are replaced by ~50-year-old ideologues of the same stripe, cementing the lean of SCOTUS for decades to come, and ensuring that new limitations on voting rights are ruled Constitutional.
Or maybe Harris squeaks out a win in NV by a few thousand votes and all of this is avoided.
its going to be a squeaker.