I’ve got Harris 352, Spawn of Satan 182. Harris takes the Biden states plus NC, FL, and IA. Also the Omaha district in NE, unless the “oh my fucking god we gotta change our rules to give another EV to our orange god” movement in NE succeeds and they go to winner-take-all.
House 240 D 195 R
Senate 51 D 49 R
This is how I see it as well, unfortunately.
As far as predictions go, the America-hating scumbag got 63 million votes in 2016, and 74 million in 2020 (to President Biden’s 81.3 million). I’m fairly confident that he’s going to exceed Biden’s “previous record” of 81.3 million this time around.
And I’m guessing on an overcompensation, that the skew will go the other way by two to three. My completely unscientific gut is feeling that even many of Trump’s supporters are tired of it and enthusiasm for him is ebbing. His turnout will be less than before and D solid.
Harris nationally +5.8 EC sweeping the close ones and getting within one point in FL but a near miss. EC 319.
Bump. How does everyone feel about their predictions? I still feel fine about mine (which I acknowledge is a “feelings” prediction, not a “fact-based” prediction).
I’m still certain that Kamala will win with ease. But I no longer think Democrats will take the Senate. A 51-49 Republican majority looks likeliest. The D’s will still have the House though.
Your prediction already didn’t happen because it’s too late for Nebraska to change anything.
Note that a month ago it was an “11th hour” attempt.
Let’s add some fun to this thread:
I predict that on election night, the Four Seasons Total Landscaping company in Philadelphia will hold a party.
I’m imagining a sort of “neighborhood block party” in their parking lot, open to the public. Big TV screens showing the results, a couple food carts, a reporter from the local news.
Could be good advertising,
And it would add some much-needed levity to a tense night.
I’ll stand pat.
Woohoo. Happy to have lost already!
Will some candidates sing the blues?
I feel pretty confident Harris will win with at least a 276-262 spread in the electoral vote. It could be higher. I think the polls are really skewed this election against the democratic candidate, but by how much is impossible to tell until the only poll that matters.
I think it is likely Dems take the house and unlikely the have a majority in the senate.
I will change my earlier post to say the following:
If this election is as close as polls make it appear it will end up either as:
What happens in Michigan tips the balance in this scenario. I’m 75% confident it will be one or the other.
IF the polls are way way off, I see it possible to be a 292 EV - 246 EV Harris win. This is the best result I see for the VP and it relies on both Michigan and North Carolina landing in the Democrat’s column. The impact of Mark Robinson on the NC Gov race could push things toward Harris.
ETA: Trump win and we get a 51-49 Senate with the Democrats taking the House.
Harris wins and there is a good chance of a 50-50 Senate with the Democrats again taking the House.
I’ve read the entire thread and still see several normally rational Dopers predicting things like TX or FL going blue and I just can’t stop myself from thinking they really must be joking. I’d love it but it ain’t gonna happen.
Let’s just say I hope my prediction is wrong.
Same, word for word, with additional (sad) confidence. Harris is doing almost everything right but the needle is stubbornly stuck. Too much of the country is permanently fucked in the head.
I’m gonna piggyback right off of this, because this is me, word-for-word.
I’m even a little more disheartened seeing that over on Predictit we’re starting the morning at “Will She Be Elected” at 55% No, 45% Yes. And that’s being driven by “real money”, not mysterious polls of “who’s answering their cellphones”, etc.
It’s also obviously “real time” so him glitching out for 35 minutes the other night, and her emasculating Bret Baier on live TV then killing it at her rally yesterday, are all baked in - there’s no “let’s wait a couple of days to see how the polls are affected”.
I suppose you could make the case that most degenerate gamblers are young MAGA douchebros that are driving that spread (as a middle-aged degenerate gambler I’d push back just a bit on the generalization though).
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president
Changing this to be significantly more positive for Harris. Now I think she gets at least six of the seven swing states.
A few points:
1, I’m heartened by the fact that the betting markets do NOT always get things right. Just recently they had major errors in predicting Harris’s running mate.
Betting markets tend to lean conservative, because betters are typically young white men who like to take risks, and those people tend to lean conservative.
The counter to that is what they always say: “Betters want to make money, so they’ll bet on the liberal even if they are personally conservative, if they really think the liberal will win.” But there’s a catch: A lot of people are personally invested in the outcome of an election, so they may be willing to put up money to change the perception of the election. Even if they would lose that money in the end. Consider it like a campaign donation: The donor doesn’t expect his money back, but does expect a greater chance for his candidate to win.
For example, there’s some evidence that a few billionaires (Elon Musk possibly among them) are putting large amounts of money into Polymarket. Not because they’re sure Trump will win, but because they want to make people think Trump will win.
Good username/post combo!
I’m sticking with my “prediction” (close Harris win, but I’m pretty far from “confident”; Senate and House both with slim GOP majorities)
Now remember I live in Bucks County, the swing county in the most swinging state. I have to go by what I see, acres of Trump signs, and what I hear, lots of people who are unwilling to say Haitians don’t eat cats and dogs. Trump is carrying the critical school bus driver voting bloc.
I see lots of support for Trump. It is very upsetting.
I predict Pennsylvania will not be called until Wednesday night. I predict Trump will carry the state. I predict it will be messy but Trump will win.
I would be very happy to be proven wrong.
Don’t know where you get this from.
Eric Hovde will lose in Wisconsin. He’s said too many stupid things to overcome.
My wishy washy answer on the POTUS election is:
30% chance Trump wins
30% chance Harris wins
30% chance there is a tie in the Electoral College (3 strong scenarios of this happening).
Notice that 2 out of those 3 favor Trump.
10% chance something odd happens, like one of them wins/loses a state that wasn’t expected, faithless electors, Kennedy manages to win 2 EC votes from Maine & Nebraska and features in
a contingent election (wouldn’t that be krazy!?!).
In any case I took election night off of work, got me a bottle of Bookers and will toast to chaos! It’s going to be a wild fucking ride!