Shenanigans. Thats my prediction.
Prost!
Standing put.
Adding an optimistic D majority in the House by 1 and a tie Senate. Not based on serious analysis but needing to feel hopeful!
You should probably take another day or two off work, too. On the night of Nov 5, we won’t yet know who won.
My hope is that after Nov 6 or 7, when most of the absentee ballots are counted, there will be a definitive result. But it’s quite possible that the re-counts will take weeks. (In Florida 2000, the recount was an orderly process that took weeks. And back then, both parties were rational. )
I’m feeling a bit better about my prediction after the Canadian election in New Brunswick yesterday:
Polls showed this as a close race, but the Liberal party ran away with a 13 point victory over the next biggest party. From looking at the polls, this looks like at least a 5-7 point (maybe more) polling error. I know it’s Canada, but there’s so much in common between Canadian and US media/demographics/culture that I think there’s a decent chance of some common progressive-leaning population that is being systemically undercounted in polls. My hypothesis is “Swifties” – young, technologically savvy people who never answer the phone or texts unless they know the caller, and they are overwhelmingly progressive/liberal.
We’ll see, but this is the first real piece of actual election results (albeit Canada) that suggests there may be something to my hypothesis. My prediction is still mostly based on feelings, but I think this is a small piece of data to go along with it.
Why would those young tech savvy progressive voters be undercounted in this election’s polling but not 4 years ago? They would be just as prone to rejecting unfamiliar-caller IDs back then as today.
A lot would have been as young as 14 or 10 in the last couple of elections…
I don’t know if there was some sudden shift between 2020 and 2024 to make that much of a difference. I admit that would seem weird. If that ended up being the case then for sure someone would have to research what happened.
Sure, but back then, there would have still been voters in the 18-21 age range that were highly progressive and would not be willing to answer unfamiliar phone calls. (Although I know of some Trumpers who are equally adamant about not answering unfamiliar calls as well; I’m not sure it’s something that goes by political affiliation.)
It does make one wonder if phone calling itself is an outdated method for polling.
I don’t know. Maybe they were undercounted back then too, but were a smaller group, and other errors (which pollsters have now made up for) resulted in the error the other way in 2020. Maybe they were less engaged back then (IIRC, Swift herself didn’t make nearly as many public statements about politics in the 2020 cycle). Maybe they’re a much larger group this time, and/or more motivated to vote.
Maybe there’s some other systemic polling error going on, or maybe there’s not and it’s random chance. We’ll find out in a few weeks. IMO, looking at the polls in '22, which generally undercounted Dems, and the GOP primary polls in '23/24, which generally undercounted anti-Trump votes, and this Canadian election, ISTM there’s a common thread of liberals (and/or anti-right-wing voters) being undercounted in polls. My hypothesis is one possible explanation for why.
I also suspect there is a polling error that favors Harris but think it is more due to over correction for the Trump side misses. Still. Here’s what was going on four years ago with answering the phone.
Of note the younger group was then more likely to answer an unknown call than older groups.
Now that younger group is more full of adults who were pandemic teens. Has that resulted in different behaviors? I’d guess so.
That’s a very good point. The pandemic could have had a major change this time around. Both in that you are trying to poll younger people who went with it, and we are post pandemic. I didn’t think about the role of that and its potential for changing things.
What percent do you think third parties will get?
I’m guessing just above 2.
And how much of this will Robert Kennedy get [I doubt that everyone got the message he dropped out].
RFK remains on the ballot in the majority of states. Of the swing states, he remains on the ballot in Michigan and Wisconsin.
I teach geography to undergrads (in a swing state, as it happens), and I can tell you there was a drop-off in basic (I mean basic) knowledge of history and geography for 18-19-year-olds over the last two to three years, that is now starting to abate somewhat.
I attribute this in part that they were “learning” online around 9th and 10th grade. I don’t know this for sure to be the cause (or a cause), but I think it is.
To me that feels inconsequential even in battlegrounds. Anyone who would vote for Junior is doing it as a protest vote because they don’t want to vote for either. It would be great if you could convince 100% of them that they should vote for Harris but that will never happen. There will always be a certain percentage of none of the above.
That certain percentage that did it as third party can vary from under 2 to over 4%. The difference between Trump winning or losing with roughly the same near 47%, a number that despite current poll results seems probable for him to hit again.
The interesting thing to me about the latest poll numbers that are favoring trump is that there is really no reasoning for the change. Harris has not made any major gaffes, and well, Trump has been Trump. Harris’s favorability remains in the ±1.5 range, while Trump’s have not really wavered tremendously, a few points down to “only” 8% unfavorable. Trump’s winning margins in the key voting counties in swing states, especially the burbs, were down from '16 and '20, and I am not sure if the polls are capturing the R’s who will vote the party line down-ballot but won’t support Trump.
Though I think his absolute base (about 40% of voters) is solid, and he seems to be gaining ground with black and Hispanic men, I think the Republicans who are sick of the Trump BS are going to outweigh this. As women’s rights continue to become a higher deciding issue nationally, and with that issue on the ballot in some states, especially Florida, the voter turnout may definitively skew Democrat, since Republicans are dead in the water unpopular on this. Maybe it is overcorrection in the polling, maybe it is just random chance, since most results are in the margin of error. ’
Prediction (aside from “pain” of course- always the first option):
Harris tops 300 EC votes, claiming 5 of the 7 swings, and landing Ohio, Florida, or Texas in a major upset. Ohio has a gerrymandering issue on the ballot that has significant favorability across both parties, but especially Democrats. Maybe it swings a few more blue dots to come out or some (I don’t know how they exist still) undecideds.
Senate: 50/50. A wildcard could be the Osborn race in NE, which no one expected. Ideally TX and FL seats are flipped, but I am not counting on it.
House: Democrats in control. If there is any higher power with a sense of justice, Jordan will be run out of office in Ohio.
This is where I’m at. When the polls are telling me the race is swinging towards Trump while Kamala is running a flawless campaign and he acts more demented every single day I am going to start questioning the polls, not the reality i see. Trump did not go up after almost being shot, or after shellacking Biden in the debate, or after the Republican national convention. But I am supposed to believe he is gaining votes NOW? as he descends further into lunacy and commits gaffe after gaffe? no sorry, those pollsters are just hedging their bets.
FWIW changes in aggregated polls do not necessarily reflect any change in reality. Final weeks have more polls and methods that may be being adjusted on the fly. It may be that they are given a better picture of what reality has been over the previous weeks than the previous aggregate had given, or it could be moving farther away from it, in addition to the possibility that voter intentions have actually changed.
You are right: nothing has changed. This is polls changing not reality moving. Maybe a few “undecided” Trump leaners coming home in the final weeks.