I think Hillary will take the Presidency. Trump has damaged his brand even if he goes back to the middle and for Cruz or Rubio, the TeaBag philosophy is nowhere near mainstream. I don’t see the Senate Dems picking up 4 seats and the House Pubs would have to lose 30 seats - again not happening in 2016.
What may be interesting is if the moderate Pubs align with the Dems in a coalition or become independent/third party. I don’t see it happening unless TeaBaggers start losing but if they do then why go independent?
I think the Democrats can take the Senate. Are they just four seats down? That’s not hard at all. I don’t have a strong opinion on the rest, so skipping the poll for now.
Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, with Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate; appealing to white males, as well as Latinos and African Americans (he speaks Spanish and he was a civil rights lawyer). (She does not need to play the race identity politics with a black or a Latino running mate). She wins Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, etc. The Republican nominee is Donald Trump, implodes slightly.
The Democrats pick up a few seats in the Senate and 2 seats in the House. Republicans face a big crisis, worse than they did in post-2012, and it is not clear they will do well in the 2018 midterm elections, where the president’s party usually loses Senate seats, House seats, local seats, and gubernatorial seats.