I made a prediction on the board yesterday that Trump would lose today, for one simple reason: There is a large gap between his results in open primaries vs closed ones. The sample size was really small, but in Oklahoma, which was a closed primary, Trump only got 28% of the vote if I recall correctly.
So it’s possible that what we’ve seen with Trump was just another iteration of the Ross Perot/Pat Buchanan phenomenon - an outsider playing into the fears of immigration and foreign trade, promising to close the borders and get tough with the foreigners. That’s always been good for about 20-25% of the Republican vote. Those are your blue-collar low information voters. And this time, because of his celebrity and the Democrats pandering to their own base, he picked up the same group of Blue Collar voters on the Democratic side. And also, in the open primaries there may have been Democrats crossing over to vote for him for strategic purposes.
Of course, lots has happened since Oklahoma, so maybe the falloff is due to the debates or Mitt Romney’s attack had an effect. But if the crossover theory is correct, you guys should be happy to see him lose, because in the end he might have pulled in as many blue collar Democrats as blue collar Republicans in the general election.