Caucuses and primaries - Saturday March 5, 2016

I didn’t see another thread on this. Apologies if I’ve overlooked it.

Polls as recently as two days ago had Trump beating Cruz in Kansas. Yet, as of a few minutes ago, Cruz has been declared the winner there!

Is this the beginning of the end for Trump? Did his performance in the last debate finally do him in? Or is this just noise in the grand scheme of things.

Trump seems to be strongly winning in Alabama - which I believe will give enough delegates to not lose ground because of Kansas. This may add evidence to the theory that Trump is having trouble with closed primaries. I suspect Cruz past helping with Tea Party nomination challenges has helped him here. Trump’s team better start getting supporters registerted as Republicans fast.

States involved today:



Some are claiming that Trumpy’s NOT showing up for the CPAC Straw Poll was insurmountable! I don’t know why…

And I can’t believe I’m typing this, but yay, Cruz! It’s nice to see a worthless theocrat win more delegates than a man who sounds more like a battered drunk every day.

I think we have to wait to see how the other states today shake out. Cruz is holding a majority vote in Kansas, which would be the first majority win this year of any Republican. He is also leading Maine, but with very little reported.

I think that if he sweeps, it’s a noticeable result. While it won’t have a tremendous result in delegates, it would have a tremendous result in the media. A split of any sort would not be so resounding.

Oops I messed up above. Thought Alabama was today - mixed it up with Louisiana.

On the D side was heavily expected to end up with solid wins for Sanders in Kansas (33 delegates) and Nebraska (25) and even more solid win for Clinton in Louisiana (51). We will see.

Suspect it will end the day pretty close to a wash in delegates. And then he’ll take Maine big tomorrow. It should keep his narrative alive until Tuesday with Michigan and Mississippi. Those losses will push it right back down.

Does this actually portend Trump’s dominance is diminishing? If Cruz has a good day and Rubio loses Florida and folds while Kasich takes Ohio, what does the path forward look like?

I made a prediction on the board yesterday that Trump would lose today, for one simple reason: There is a large gap between his results in open primaries vs closed ones. The sample size was really small, but in Oklahoma, which was a closed primary, Trump only got 28% of the vote if I recall correctly.

So it’s possible that what we’ve seen with Trump was just another iteration of the Ross Perot/Pat Buchanan phenomenon - an outsider playing into the fears of immigration and foreign trade, promising to close the borders and get tough with the foreigners. That’s always been good for about 20-25% of the Republican vote. Those are your blue-collar low information voters. And this time, because of his celebrity and the Democrats pandering to their own base, he picked up the same group of Blue Collar voters on the Democratic side. And also, in the open primaries there may have been Democrats crossing over to vote for him for strategic purposes.

Of course, lots has happened since Oklahoma, so maybe the falloff is due to the debates or Mitt Romney’s attack had an effect. But if the crossover theory is correct, you guys should be happy to see him lose, because in the end he might have pulled in as many blue collar Democrats as blue collar Republicans in the general election.

It still looks like “I, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton …”

Good heavens. The Democratic candidates supporting issues that their base supports is “pandering”. Whatever. I won’t even ask what it is that the Republican candidates are doing.

Anyway, I came back to post that turnout in the oddball and unexpected Republican caucus in Kentucky was apparently quite heavy. Polls closed at 4pm (Eastern) and I guess results will be released all at once sometime in the evening.

I don’t know what you mean by “you guys”, Sam Stone, but I would personally prefer both a candidate Trump and god forbid a President Trump over Cruz.

But this may add to the open/closed theory of Trump success, as I said above. I suspect Cruz has a far better network for a closed primary and probably even more for caucuses. Hopefully Trump can get some of his independent supporters registering before Tuesday.


Well yeah. But I for one am pulling for *as long and bitter of a process as possible *to help make that as for sure of an outcome as possible.

If after the 15th Rubio is out with Kasich having taken Ohio (WTA) and it is from there in fact a Trump Cruz Kasich affair, then there are a few states that might allow Kasich to catch up some and while Trump will still have a plurality it might be a bit more likely to be on path to a contested convention.

And Kasich seems to be outperforming Rubio so far …

(Are you happy Addie?)

vomits at mental image

Cruz has lost a majority in Kansas, but still a resounding win.

Maine is starting to trickle in again after being stalled out at 5% for a long time. Trump is narrowing Cruz’ lead.

Kentucky’s early returns have Trump just barely ahead of Cruz.

Polls in Louisiana do not close until 9 eastern.

Rubio and Kasich will finish 3rd and 4th in all states reporting so far. Both of them will drop out after they lose their home state, and it will be Trump vs. Cruz to the finish.

Sorry. Let me correct that. Hillary is pandering. Sanders is sincere. But both of them have been tailoring their rhetoric to their left-wing base, which could be causing the blue collar voters to vote Trump.

But Cruz was met by boos and walkouts at CPAC.

Cruz is Kansas’s hope. I knew he would win Kansas.

Did your friends in Queens and Staten Island know it too?

No. I haven’t seen them in a week.