New Hampshire Primary 02/09/16

Start your engines, place your bets!

Coming out of Iowa, the Pub frontrunners are still Cruz, Trump and Rubio, the Dem frontrunners are still Clinton and Sanders. I expect no upsets from anyone else. Sanders may have an edge in NH just because it’s next door to Vermont and everyone there has heard of him.

The interesting questions are all on the Republican side. The NH Democrats are going to give Sanders a win, which his supporters will make a huge deal out of, and then Clinton will win NV, SC, and Super Tuesday.

The Republicans OTOH! Will Rubio get much of a bounce? Can Christie/Kasich continue to contest the ‘establishment lane’? Will Trump slide, now that his invincibility has been punctured? I have no idea!

BTW, does NH distribute its delegates proportionally or winner-take-all? Anybody know?

Proportionally, on both sides.

It’ll be interesting to see the first post-Iowa poll of NH Republicans. How big will Rubio’s bounce be, will Cruz get much of a bounce, will Trump’s support take a hit? Will the support for the other Establishment lane candidates hold, or will it mostly gravitate towards Rubio?

Don’t be so sure about Nevada. It’s a caucus state with heavy union involvement.

As for NH, it’s Sanders on the Democrat side by 20 points or more. On the GOP side, I’ve gone out on a limb and predicted Kasich will win it, but Rubio could do it given his performance in Iowa. Trump will fall to 2nd or 3rd. Christie will be forced to exit, leaving Bush, Kasich and Rubio in the establishment pack.

More like you’re sitting on a limb and sawing it between you and the trunk.

The first poll will be instructive, Rubio will doubtless get a bit of a bounce, but there are too many establishment lane candidates to divvy up the vote and I think Trump-Cruz finish 1-2 respectively.

Things can change a lot though with momentum. You’d expect Cruz and Rubio to rise in NH and Trump to fall. We just don’t know how much. We also know, as Nate Silver pointed out, that if Trump underperformed his polling in IA, his polling in NH is also probably overestimating his support.

Then there’s the last minute voters. They went big for Rubio and Cruz. The kinds of voters who make last minute decisions in NH are likely to go for Rubio, Kasich, and Christie, so I’d expect all three could overperform.

So basically my predictions are trying to extrapolate from where we are now. Kasich is the #1 establishment guy in NH. So if Trump falters and Cruz just isn’t right for NH voters, then Kasich is best positioned to win.

Waiting for the first post-IA New Hampshire poll is taking the easy way.:slight_smile:

So Trump has to drop by 10-15 points in a week, with either Kasich or Cruz talking on all the defectors? I’m not really seeing it.

Howard Dean was the leader in NH for quite some time. Iowa caused him to tumble in the polls, which led him to a double digit loss.

http://cphcmp.smu.edu/2004election/new-hampshire-primary/

Republicans: statewide proportional, with a 10% threshhold.

Democrats: 8 delegates from each of the two Congressional districts, proportional to the district vote; 8 statewide delegates, proportional to the statewide vote. 15% threshhold in all cases, although this shouldn’t be a problem with only two candidates remaining.

(“Didn’t you say that 3/4 of the pledged delegates had to be divided among the districts?” Yes, but the 8 statewide delegates include 3 “pledged party officials” (i.e. delegates chosen by the party who aren’t superdelegates).)

Many of which unions have endorsed Clinton.

Couple of problems here-Iowa is very undemocratic in being a caucus and thus had a class bias against economically marginal and less-educated voters which primaries such as New Hampshire have less of a problem of. Not to mention in general Iowa is a pretty shill and low-energy state that was always one of the worst states for TRUMP due to its combination of Midwestern evangelical moralism and annoying “Minnesota nice” culture (which the Mormon apostates share in spirit) who shrink from the Donald’s bluntness and sincerity. The more hardass regional cultures of New Hampshire with its large bloc of blue-collar ethnic Catholics and the Scotch-Irish rednecks of both states will be far more amenable to TRUMP’s message of national greatness and genuine principle compared to the undisguised plutocratic panderings of the two Cubans in this race.

So who does that favor more, Clinton or Sanders? (I doubt union support is at all relevant on the Pub side.)

Bolding mine.

Agree except for the bolded part. IMO …

If Trump falters & Cruz just isn’t right then Kasich is well-positioned to pick up the majority of the folks who abandon Trump or Cruz. Given Rubio’s vs. Kasich’s positioning now I don’t know that Kasichs’ share of that crowd is bigger enough than Rubio’s share to pull Kasich ahead of Rubio.

TLDR: Kasich will move up more than Rubio will, but not enough to be sure Kasich will come in on top given all the other moving parts in play.

Democratic side a Sanders blow-out. It and Vermont may be the only states he outright wins but he will win it big. Call it 59 to 41. Anything less than that there will correctly be understood as a sign of doom for him no matter how it is spun.

GOP side. I really do think that part of Trump’s Iowa collapse was his passing on the debate. Many Iowan unsures made up their minds that night and he was a no show. NH unsures still have a chance to be won or lost. His failure to deliver and being closer to third than first will have many questioning if he really is “the most electable” after all but he will not collapse.

From the current RCP averages Cruz takes from Trump and the rest of the undercard bleeds support pretty evenly into Kasich and Rubio

Trump 28
Cruz 17
Kasich 16
Rubio 15
No one else breaks 10.

How did Kasich beat Rubio?!

The Nevada hotel workers’ union had some nasty things to say about the Sanders campaign, I don’t know if they have formally endorsed Clinton or not.

Kasich has been polling stronger than Rubio there to date and Rubio’s posture in Iowa and likely rapid pivot in posture in NH won’t play great.

NH in the past has tended to divvy up the undercard among those polling in the top 3 or 4 in their polls in the week or so before the primary, not reward “momentum” from Iowa. In 2012 for example Huntsman got 0.6 in Iowa but still outperformed his polling average in NH with a solid third at 16.9. Kasich is pretty Huntsmanish for this field.

Kasich current RCP rolling average is essentially tied for second with Cruz at 11.3. Bush and Rubio are essentially tied just below that.

There are some special case aspects to this one … again my belief that some Trump support will bleed as he begins to appear as the Emperor who wears no clothes and that the not Trump or Cruz lane will drop all but the current leader of that lane in their polling (and owner of many local endorsements), Kasich, and the banner-waver of that lane from Iowa, Rubio. Bush despite essentially being tied for 4th will bleed off into those two as will most of the rest of the undercard (Cruz getting more of Carson and Huck share maybe). I think.

Apparently Trump has decided to leave nothing to chance this time.

Don’t stop me if you’ve heard this. A rabbi walks into a Town Hall . . .