I had already been expecting Trump to lose support but boy, this last “I wuz robbed!” crybaby bit cannot play well with at least my stereotype of New Hampshire voters, and Cruz is not going to be shy at this point about piling that on with the running away from the last debate. The huge buffer will hold but I am not so sure by how much.
What I am also not so about is who gets to stay in the viability perception field of the other lane. Of course Rubio is now considered viable and several others for sure not. But Bush seems to be moving up there and now is matching Kasich. I am still betting that Kasich will be the one to emerge as joining the viable group moving forward.
So I am changing up some from what I had said in BG’s thread to:
Kasich and Rubio tied 16
Christie, Fiorino, and Carson get culled from the herd. I am just unsure if Bush does well enough to be a factor going forward but he does do well enough that he does not drop out. Not with his war chest.