OK, same as last time. List your top three Republican finishers in the first in the nation primary of New Hampshire!
Post your top three and give your percentages and earn nothing except the ability to strut like an Elections peacock about your leet predictive ability.
Bonus tiebreaker: Who comes in last.
Kasich-23%
Rubio-20%
Trump-18%
Trump 22%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 18%
Last: Santorum
Trump: 26%
Rubio: 22%
Cruz: 21%
Last place: Santorum
I think the last-place call isn’t going to make a good tiebreaker because everyone will pick Santorum.
I swear I haven’t looked at any polls, so this is totally guesswork:
Trump 32%
Rubio 29%
Christie 24%
Trump 31%
Rubio 21%
Cruz 17%
Trump 35%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 12%
Trump 32%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 20%
Trump 25%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 18%
Kasich and Christie not too far behind.
I don’t know what to think. I’d have thought Iowans would have seen through Cruz’s smarmy phoniness, but they went for him in far larger numbers than I would have thought possible.
47K for Cruz? Even in Evangeltopia that seems unbelievably high. What am I missing?
If Cruz wins New Hampshire then I give up; the world will no longer make sense to me.
I’d like it to be:
Trump 35%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 13%
I fear it will be:
Cruz 28%
Rubio 24%
Trump 19%
Same as most others here, I will say Santorum will be last.
Trump 26%
Rubio 17%
Kasich 12%
Cruz
Christie
Paul
Bush
Fiorina
Carson
Santorum
I’m going to go against the grain and say the Rubio bounce doesn’t materialize. (ETA: I will openly admit that this is adanalysis here. I’d certain prefer for Rubio’s momentum to stall.)
Trump: 28
Cruz: 18
Kasich: 12
Is Gilmore even in it? Do already-dropped candidates count for last? I predict Santorum will beat Huck.
Huck’s out, so…yeah.
Well, that’s sort of the crux of my question. Huck suspended his campaign, but he’ll still appear on the ballot, and he will get some votes. For the purpose of the “last place” contest, are we disregarding candidates who have suspended their campaigns?
Trump 30%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 12%
Gilmore will get last place.
Yep, closer to this than the other predictions so far…
Ok, I do expect that Trump will lose support or his supporters are not as reliable as other candidates, still the cushion he has is too big so:
Trump 27%
Cruz 22%
Kasich 14%
Rubio may get 3rd place or get close to it, the race for the “establishment” candidate will continue.
New Hampshire . . . February . . . I’m gonna go out on a limb here and predict cold weather.
I had already been expecting Trump to lose support but boy, this last “I wuz robbed!” crybaby bit cannot play well with at least my stereotype of New Hampshire voters, and Cruz is not going to be shy at this point about piling that on with the running away from the last debate. The huge buffer will hold but I am not so sure by how much.
What I am also not so about is who gets to stay in the viability perception field of the other lane. Of course Rubio is now considered viable and several others for sure not. But Bush seems to be moving up there and now is matching Kasich. I am still betting that Kasich will be the one to emerge as joining the viable group moving forward.
So I am changing up some from what I had said in BG’s thread to:
Trump 24
Cruz 18
Kasich and Rubio tied 16
Christie, Fiorino, and Carson get culled from the herd. I am just unsure if Bush does well enough to be a factor going forward but he does do well enough that he does not drop out. Not with his war chest.
The problem for Kasich is that with little organization or money past New Hampshire, tied for third just won’t cut it. Kasich needs 1st or 2nd. And even 2nd isn’t good enough if Rubio is 1st. Trump 1st is fine for Kasich, because it would give Kasich a win in the establishment lane. But he has to beat Rubio.
Right now, the RCP average has him down 2 against Rubio, 1 against Cruz.