One Week To Iowa: GOP Win, Place, Show Predictions

Politics & Elections
1

The Iowa caucuses are a week from tonight, so I figure it’s time for one more “predict the Iowa results” thread. This is GOP only; I’ll let someone else do a Dem poll if they want.

Poll coming.

2

This is a public poll, btw.

Also, the poll will just be a snapshot in time; it’ll close after a day. (Not sure if that means today only, or today and tomorrow, or until this time tomorrow.)

Yes, I’ve limited the choices of winner to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. If you think someone else will win, say so in the thread. (Like I could stop you. :))

I’ve allowed for Carson possibly finishing in the top 3, and the last three poll choices are there if you think someone besides Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson (Bush, Christie, etc.) will finish in the top 3.

It’s gonna be close between Trump and Cruz, IMHO, but I’m going with Trump-Cruz-Rubio.

3

I think Trump pulls away. I think he wins every contest.

4

Without much conviction I choose Trump, Cruz, Carson. I’m essentially saying the winner is based on name recognition & bandwagoning, then the other two are selected for their degree of religious zeal.

Yes, I have a low opinion of the decision-making systems employed in Iowa. Though the few folks I know from there are decent hardworking sensible people.

5

Trump - Cruz - Rubio

We’re in trouble.

6

Went with Trump - Cruz - Rubio.

Looking at the current poll averages, I don’t think I am going much out on a limb to predict that Trump and Cruz finish neck-and-neck in the 30% range each. And I am being generous to Cruz in that I am not sure Trump’s Iowa supporters know how the caucuses work. If they figure that out, then I see Trump at closer to 35% and Cruz under 30%.

Rubio comes in a distant third with about 10-15% and the remainder is split among everyone else.

If Trump gets to 35% in Iowa, I think that is a strong sign that he has committed supporters and he will likely be the Republican presidential nominee.

7

I went Cruz - Trump - Rubio

I think Cruz manages to get people out better and it’s closer than the poll averages make it look. I had to pick one to win by a nose though. With he campaign staff in shambles I expect Carson to under perform his current poll averages a touch. That’s not enough to drop Carson to ffifth but between that and the current gap he’s not competitive for third.