The GOP faithful just can’t seem t get enough of the Donald and Ted Cruz but on the other hand it would appear they have almost no chance of actually being elected POTUS.
White it’s a bit embarrassing what this says about the GOP base and the visceral, unapologetic white panic at play they are head and shoulders above the rest of the field at this point. Will it stay that way or are Trump and Cruz going to start to fade as time progresses?
If either one of them fades, it will be at the other’s expense. I base this on my personal interaction with Trump and Cruz supporters as well as the people who comment on stories critical of Trump and Cruz. The vibe I get is that the bulk of their supporters are people who are tired of politics as usual. A lot of these folks seem to lump Rubio, Bush, and Christie in with Clinton. They see a bigger difference between Trump and the establishment Republicans than between the establishment Republicans and Clinton. I think people with that mindset are unlikely to become supporters of Rubio or Bush just because they are seen as more electable than Trump or Cruz in a general election.
I think that eventually the GOP mainstream voters will realize that it’s coming down to a race between Cruz and Trump. At that point the Rubio and Bush supporters will probably hold their noses and go with Cruz to deny Trump the nomination based on the the idea that a Trump nomination would be worse for the party than a Cruz nomination.
Republican voter have little interest in the other candidates. This can all change overnight for a variety of reasons. Right now Trump has solid support, Cruz is just the latest challenger following Carson’s fall. The reason we see these guys at the top is the same reason we see Jeb! and the others at the bottom, the GOP base is voting for “none of the above”.
This late I’m beginning to think that Trump has indeed a chance for the GOP nomination, either that or we are headed to the most sickening, train wreck of a Republican convention in history.
On the one hand I fear that as it will move more of the hate messages into the mainstream, and this time for the whole of the election, on the other hand I hoped for that because as a mild Democrat I wanted to see all those Republican candidates chewing each other so much that when the nominee finally comes out he will be so pre-chewed that he will not recover, either with the loony base or the moderate wing of the Republican party.
If Trump wins the presidency there’s gonna be a lot of fun thread bumping.
Just who do you think has a better chance? They all look pretty feverish, but someone has to win.
Romney! Pale, tired, and ill prepared. The momentum is building.
Of course they do-the real fever dream is the idea that anybody besides Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and possibly Christie can get the nomination.
Trump has no shot. Cruz does have a shot, but I think the GOP electorate will regain their sanity, with an assist from independent voters in places like NH, and pick someone who will make a good President and beat Clinton. If there was no Kasich or Christie or Rubio in the race I’d just say, “YOu know what, the hell with it, let’s throw Cruz out there just for shits and giggles.” But we do have good candidates and we should use them.
They’re all going to vote for Sanders?
Is there still time for any of them to enter the race? I thought the filing deadlines were past.
Tell us that after he drops out of the lead, okay?
Is that a prediction?
“Kasich or Christie or Rubio” ?
You sure?
December 17-21 CNN ORC poll:
“The poll, however, suggests Clinton faces a stiff challenge from each of three Republicans at the top of the field. She narrowly tops Donald Trump within the poll’s margin of sampling error, 49% to 47%, in a hypothetical general election matchup. But she falls behind Ted Cruz by 2 points (Cruz 48% to Clinton 46%, a shift since last month when Cruz trailed Clinton 50% to 47%) and 3 points behind Marco Rubio (49% Rubio to 46% Clinton). Among independent voters, Clinton trails Rubio and Cruz by 12 points each, while running even with Trump.”
Trump and Cruz are the only ones who actually do have a shot.
Indeed, that is just CNN, when taking other important polls into account Clinton is right now in a better position.
48% to Clinton vs 42% to Trump. With Cruz and Rubio Clinton will have a harder time but the numbers are really tied with them, and IMHO once the focus is on Rubio and Cruz a lot of baggage will come out so I still think that Clinton will have a better chance.
Thanks for the link.
I’ve been listening to the “Trump is a joke candidate and has no chance” folks for months now, always predicting his imminent fall yet never seeing it materialize. Unless something radically changes the mood of a lot of people, I think Trump is a pretty safe bet at this point.
Cruz may have a reasonable chance as the replacement-Trump.
Here are a fairly complete set of Presidential polls: it seems clear to me the race is wide open:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
This. Trump and Cruz are selling what most GOP voters apparently want to buy.
And like you say, who else? Is Jeb going to win back his exclamation point? Is Rubio going to suddenly catch fire in the next six weeks? Is Kasich or Christie or Paul going to break through in NH and roll from there?
Really, Rubio is the only guy other than Trump and Cruz who seems to have a chance - and he doesn’t exactly seem to be catching fire.
At any rate, it’s five weeks to Iowa, six to New Hampshire. We’ll know soon enough. Most of the candidates will celebrate Valentine’s Day with their spouses, having already suspended their campaigns by then.
I’ve seen their spouses, serves 'em right!