I’ll preface this with the fact that I watch the debates and read a lot to keep me informed of the upcoming elections BUT realize my bias and ignorance will still come into play.
<Simplifying> I’ve been reading a lot that a fear of the GOP is that Trump will leave the party and take his votes with him. This will weaken the Republican base and a Democrat will probably win. So based on that it appears one strategy appears to be ‘win at all costs’ (Republican in the Whitehouse even if it’s trump).
But conversely (or so it seems to me) that the GOP base feels that Cruz is the better choice. I’m basically a Dem but I have voted the other way in the past. As such, there is no way in hell that I would ever vote for Cruz.
On the other hand, I might be persuaded to take a closer look at Rubio for example. I have many like thinking friends who feel the same way. Given this, why not get behind someone who has the best shot at pulling in the middle or undecided voters. I understand that your first choice might be Cruz or Trump but if the ‘win at any cost’ theory is in play why back someone you know will get beat by Hillary?
Because Republicans know the truth, that they are the real majority in America, and all real Americans know this to be true. Why do Republicans believe in “voter fraud”? Because it explains why they lose so many elections, which simply cannot be legit because they are the majority!
Which is to say, the don’t “know” that Hillary will beat their guy. They know that’s what the liberal media says, and they know that said liberal media lies always, so therefore it cannot be true!
It’s simple, as it must be simple, for people who would lose a game of tic-tac-toe to a hamster.
I think the current fear is based around Trump throwing a fit and running as an independent. In my armchair opinion, I think Trump would love to be ‘forced’ to run as an indy, because he doesn’t actually want to be president and he would be able to campaign all the way to election day as an independent with a 0% chance of winning.
So the GOP is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They’ve got to find a way to ensure Trump loses the nomination without giving him an excuse to jump ship because the nomination process was ‘tampered’ with by the GOP establishment.
It’s a shitty place to be in, but Trump is only shitting all over the bed that the GOP has spent years painstakingly making.
Because they believe Cruz can win. Republican voters, and specifically Republican primary voters don’t have the disdain for Cruz others believe they should. Cruz is a fighter and they like that. Cruz ruffles peoples’ feathers and they like that. Cruz doesn’t compromise and they like that. You’re looking at Cruz through your lens, they through theirs, with each seeing something very different. It doesn’t matter what you see as far as they are concerned. If Cruz becomes the nominee and loses, it won’t be because he’s the wrong guy, it’ll be because the system is broken as there is simply no other way a true conservative like Cruz could lose.
I don’t think you’ve gotten any Republican responses so far (my post included), but I think your question gives too much order and volition to a group of
~60,000,000 voters. So I don’t think there is an answer. The individuals are expressing favor for who they want in the primary. Republicans are good at falling in line in the general, but nobody controls the primaries very well. (Besides, no actual primaries have taken place.)
An analogy. McDonalds makes alot more money than KFC. Why doesn’t KFC stop selling fried chicken and start selling Big Macs? Because people who want Big Macs will go to McDonalds even if KFC sells them too and people who want fried chicken will have no place to go.
People who are moderates will flirt with the moderate and then vote for whom the media tell them to. Meanwhile the conservatives will have no one to vote for. In 2000 the media and moderates had a love affair with McCain. I remember many people who said I don’t normally vote Republican but McCain is exactly the type of politician I would support. Then he gets nominated in 2008 and suddenly he has lost his mind and is now a crazy old man who no one could support in good conscience.
The same thing happened to Romney. Before he ran the conventional wisdom was he was exactly the kind of moderate technocrat whom moderates would love to see as President but was not conservative enough to be nominated. He then gets nominated and he is an out of touch plutocrat who would ruin the country.
If Rubio is nominated, by election day your ilk will be proclaiming him a dangerous nut job.
Well, he did nominate Sarah Palin. I don’t recall a lot of crazy old man talk back then - and given how Bush ruined the country, I doubt any Republican could have done better.
Plutocrat. Check. Out of touch? Remember the stuff about starting out by getting a giant loan from your dad? And don’t forget that he was recorded pissing on half the country.
The question is - would a real conservative have done better? Or because a relative moderate might be called an extremist by some (at last not a Kenyan) do you want to nominate a real extremist?
Elections are at least as much about turn out as they are about swaying moderates. There are more conservatives who would stay home if the GOP nominates a moderate then there are Democrats who would switch over to vote for a Republican.
I thought it was a generally accepted truth that appealing to a broad swath of the population is a loser strategy in modern American elections. When you have the sort of abysmal voter turnout rates that we have, the way you win is by getting asses in the voting booths, and the way you do that is by a) demonizing the other side, and b) nominating a candidate that people are excited about. The quickest way to lose an election that you’re expected to win handily is to nominate a complete dullard like John Kerry. Kerry didn’t lose because moderate Republicans didn’t want to vote for him, or because they rallied behind Bush, he lost because too many Democrats stayed home.
That’s the danger of nominating someone like Rubio. The Republicans don’t want your vote, just like Democrats don’t want the votes of moderate Republicans.
The problem for the GOP is there are so many candidates and nobody seems to be able to pull ahead far enough to be the alternative to Trump. The rest of the voters are still scattered and few of the candidates are dropping out of the race. So this could all go to the convention, which would be fun to watch.
Because an independent from one of the established parties is always going to split the vote so the chances of either Trump * or Whoever [R] winning against Whoever [D] is virtually nil.
On the SDMB, any Republican who is running for President is the most extreme, out-of-touch, dishonest, unethical politician of all time. And the closer he gets to the White House, the more extreme, out-of-touch, dishonest, and unethical he becomes.
Any Republican is going to be called an extremist by yellow dog Democrats. You can’t tell anything about the relative extremism of a GOP candidate from what liberals call him.
