No results yet, obviously, but I figure we need a thread for “live blogging” it.
I have CNN on in the background, and it’s getting about a 10% attention share from me. Sounds like the Republican caucuses are drawing a large number of first time voters. I suspect that bodes well for Trump. I may regret my prediction.
Clinton seems to be up early as well, in early votes as well as entrance polls. Tracking something like 53-43…
Huckabee and Santorum should drop out of the race immediately.
And their neck and neck at the start!
CNN:
Trump 29%
Cruz 30%
Just looked at the CNN polls. On the GOP side looks like Trump and Rubio will be the top two with Cruz on the outside looking in with a lack of support among non-evangelicals. Question is: is anyone surprised?
Favorite quote
Cruz is actually showing in first place on cnn now. Which data point are you seeing?
Clinton 52%
Sanders 47%
Could be a close one, people!
R 14% reporting!
Cruz: 30%
Trump: 28%
Rubio: 19%
Carson: 10%
D 32% reporting
Clinton 52%
Sanders 47%
I would be surprised. Cruz has a very strong campaign organization in Iowa. The only thing that surprises me about the early results is that Rubio (in third place) isn’t even further behind.
[QUOTE=CNN]
Early entrance poll results from CNN show very high turnout for evangelical and born-again Christian voters, at 63% of caucusgoers.
That could have huge implications, especially they way they are splitting:
Ted Cruz 26%
Donald Trump 24%
Marco Rubio 21%
Ben Carson 12%
Among non-evangelicals:
Donald Trump 32%
Marco Rubio 23%
Ted Cruz 15%
Rand Paul 5%
[/QUOTE]
Even If Cruz takes second in Iowa due to the high percentage of evos, the low-numbers Cruz has among the non-evos tells me he is not viable nationwide.
And with 40% D reporting closer yet. 51.5 to 47.9.
19% on R … too early to think much.
I’d think that if Rubio gets to 20% he’ll be considered one of the ‘winners’ of the evening. Whether he can capitalize on that come New Hampshire is up for grabs, but it’ll be a good sign for him.
R 19% reporting
Cruz 30%
Trump 27%
Rubio 19%
Carson 10%
D 42% reporting
Clinton 51%
Sanders 48%
Sanders has really closed the gap as more votes have been counted. I’m not clear on why that is - should that trend continue through the night?
Harry Enten at 538 thinks it might.
2 thoughts
The western half of Iowa is the conservative half i.e. more for Clinton. What’s the weather like right now?
Sanders support is centered on college campuses. With such a high concentration when they report may be skewing the numbers early on.
He’ll be the leading one of the less bat-shit lane. And it would be exceeding expectations spin.
Exceeding expectations is no small thing. Gary Hart may have flamed out in 1984 but he got a lot of extra press coverage by moderately outperforming in Iowa.
I don’t know if it was a flame out so much as the monkey business he was up to.
I got that, you know.
The question still hangs…does Rubio have the operation to capitalize? Exit numbers are showing him outperforming in NW Iowa with its heavy evangelical electorate. I don’t know New Hampshire well but would that translate there?
Early on a 538 wonk stated that Cerro Gordo (Mason City) and Dubuque counties are the likely bellwethers for the D side.
Cerro Gordo with 65% reporting is 52.4 Clinton and 47.6 Sanders.
Dubuque counties with 42% reporting is 56.8 Clinton and 42.3 Sanders and 0.9 OMalley
Make of it what you will.