Iowa Caucuses are underway

No results yet, obviously, but I figure we need a thread for “live blogging” it.

I have CNN on in the background, and it’s getting about a 10% attention share from me. Sounds like the Republican caucuses are drawing a large number of first time voters. I suspect that bodes well for Trump. I may regret my prediction.

Clinton seems to be up early as well, in early votes as well as entrance polls. Tracking something like 53-43…

Huckabee and Santorum should drop out of the race immediately.

And their neck and neck at the start!

Trump 29%
Cruz 30%

Just looked at the CNN polls. On the GOP side looks like Trump and Rubio will be the top two with Cruz on the outside looking in with a lack of support among non-evangelicals. Question is: is anyone surprised?

Favorite quote

Cruz is actually showing in first place on cnn now. Which data point are you seeing?

Clinton 52%
Sanders 47%

Could be a close one, people!

R 14% reporting!

Cruz: 30%
Trump: 28%
Rubio: 19%
Carson: 10%

D 32% reporting
Clinton 52%
Sanders 47%

I would be surprised. Cruz has a very strong campaign organization in Iowa. The only thing that surprises me about the early results is that Rubio (in third place) isn’t even further behind.

Even If Cruz takes second in Iowa due to the high percentage of evos, the low-numbers Cruz has among the non-evos tells me he is not viable nationwide.

And with 40% D reporting closer yet. 51.5 to 47.9.

19% on R … too early to think much.

I’d think that if Rubio gets to 20% he’ll be considered one of the ‘winners’ of the evening. Whether he can capitalize on that come New Hampshire is up for grabs, but it’ll be a good sign for him.

R 19% reporting
Cruz 30%
Trump 27%
Rubio 19%
Carson 10%

D 42% reporting
Clinton 51%
Sanders 48%

Sanders has really closed the gap as more votes have been counted. I’m not clear on why that is - should that trend continue through the night?

Harry Enten at 538 thinks it might.

2 thoughts
The western half of Iowa is the conservative half i.e. more for Clinton. What’s the weather like right now?

Sanders support is centered on college campuses. With such a high concentration when they report may be skewing the numbers early on.

He’ll be the leading one of the less bat-shit lane. And it would be exceeding expectations spin.

Exceeding expectations is no small thing. Gary Hart may have flamed out in 1984 but he got a lot of extra press coverage by moderately outperforming in Iowa.

I don’t know if it was a flame out so much as the monkey business he was up to.

I got that, you know.

The question still hangs…does Rubio have the operation to capitalize? Exit numbers are showing him outperforming in NW Iowa with its heavy evangelical electorate. I don’t know New Hampshire well but would that translate there?

Early on a 538 wonk stated that Cerro Gordo (Mason City) and Dubuque counties are the likely bellwethers for the D side.

Cerro Gordo with 65% reporting is 52.4 Clinton and 47.6 Sanders.
Dubuque counties with 42% reporting is 56.8 Clinton and 42.3 Sanders and 0.9 OMalley

Make of it what you will.