5 days away. Iowa may have results by then.
Things to discuss:
Not get embarrassed again. He doesn’t need to win, but he can’t finish fourth again. And it would be a very bad sign for him if he finishes behind Buttigieg again.
Probably not. Seems like a lot of her relative success in Iowa was due to home-region advantage; the counties she did best in were all on the border with Minnesota. She won’t have that in NH.
Bernie’s “elite” now? Whoa. I’m sure that Biden/Warren/Sanders will total many more votes than Buttigieg/Klobuchar, but I wouldn’t blame geography; that’s what the national polls show, too. Also, Delaware isn’t considered part of New England.
I would be surprised if anybody did.
Bernie should win this primary handily and consolidate his newfound status as the frontrunner. If he doesn’t do that, it’s a bad sign for him. Warren really needs to finish second or third at least, because if she can’t do well in lily-white States, where exactly is she going to win? Same for Buttigieg, except he needs a strong showing even more, because his national support is still minuscle. I think anyone who isn’t in the top 3 in NH should probably hang it up.
I think Biden’s firewall is south carolina. I think he will drop out after then even if he does well.
I doubt Klobuchars 5th place running means she has a future. I think she will drop out after NH or SC.
I think by the time super tuesday comes around the only ones left will be Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren & Bloomberg. Biden and Klobuchar will be out. I’m guessing Steyer will be out too and focus on funding politics rather than running. Warren knows she won’t win, but she wants to rack up delegates and then transfer them to Sanders if Sanders offers her a good cabinet position.
I’m probably wrong, but thats what I think will happen.
Hard to say if the primary and general are different. I keep hearing Sanders is too far left, but people said Trump was too far right. People said that Romney, McCain, Kerry, Hillary, etc. were the safe picks and they all lost.
Well, first of all, Bernie isn’t the front runner.
From what I’ve seen, Pete has dropped the cornfields and heartland stuff, so he’s showing that’s he’s flexible enough to campaign in different regions and he did go to Harvard.
I think Klobuchar is done and might drop out after NH. Spending all that time in Washington during the Trump trial just killed any momentum.
The debate is tomorrow (Friday) A horrible night for a debate at the end of a huge political week. No one will get a bounce and you just don’t want to make a gaffe that will go viral. The debate will draw fewer viewers than the Green Party convention does on C-Span 3.
Biden had better thank his lucky stars about the Iowa debacle. That was truly horrible for him. That campaign seems to be floundering. He’d better be glad he’s got SC coming up but then he runs into the Bloomberg money machine after.
Warren didn’t have a great Iowa either. She has to split the backyard vote with Bernie. Out of everyone she needs to be on the attack on Friday. But there’s a fine line between being an attack dog and ‘that angry bitch’ Does she go after Bernie and endure the wrath of his Bros? Does she go after Pete? She’s been slinging shit at Pete the last few months and it hasn’t worked.
The debate also has Yang and Steyer. Just go away!! All they’ll do is suck more oxygen and take time away from the big 4.
Bernie will be strong but lose tons of his 2016 support with the blowout win over Hillary.
I’d say that Bernie wins, Pete a close second, Warren a not so close 3rd, and Biden with another embarrassment. Basically similar to Iowa except for no tie at the top. If I was Bernie, I’d be worried about a major Biden gaffe Friday causing Biden’s support to plummet. And, avoid another hot mic with Warren. He doesn’t need the snakes again and the Bernie Bros are nasty trolls story to dominate the weekend before voting.
Okay, I’ll ask; how does a candidate “transfer delegates”? A candidate is either in, or out, and if a candidate drops out, all of their pledged delegates either still have to vote for the candidate on the first ballot or become uncommitted.
Well, Warren’s delegates are presumably loyal Warren supporters for the most part, so if she asks them to become uncommitted and then vote for Bernie, almost all of them would presumably do so. But you’re right, she can’t actually MAKE them.
I really don’t think Warren wants a cabinet position. Why would she? She seems to enjoy being in the Senate. Plus, she knows quite well that Massachusetts special elections can be a mess. And I don’t see her staying in the race long enough to rack up delegates. It it’s clear she doesn’t have the ability to win, she’ll get out sooner rather than later. She could be looking at a serious primary challenge in 2024 and she’s handcuffed herself with the purity money stuff.
Secretary of HUD or energy? Probably not. But who turns down AG, State, Treasury or Defense?
I’ve just always gotten the impression that Warren is a lot like John McCain or Bob Dole and genuinely likes being a Senator. She’s a big enough name that she can have a spot on any cable news or Sunday show that she wants to.
It’s actually pretty rare for a Senator to take a cabinet job which is heavily administrative. Clinton as Secretary of State was an exception.
I have no objection at all to Warren being in the cabinet, I just am not sure she’d be interested. Plus, I’m sure she remembers the Scott Brown debacle.
Expectations matter.
Biden has to be at least third. Sanders needs the win. If Buttigieg upsets again he may still be a longshot, but Sanders would be hurt bad.
Klobuchar has no real chance of placing and is playing for a VP bid by getting to 4th. She’s done after this.
The Scott Brown debacle was a case of the Mass Democratic party coronating Martha Coakley, a choice no one really liked and a weak campaigner. I told them not to do this! They didn’t listen, and even put her up for Governor in 2014, which she predictably blew and that’s mainly why Massachusetts has a Republican governor now.
I hope - (hope!) - Martha has retired from electoral politics, because Mass Dems seem to be slow learners.
I’d compare it to Jeff Sessions. He loved being a Senator but dropped it all to be AG and is in fact running for the Senate again.
As of right now, 538 has 10 New Hampshire polls in their poll database released in the last three days. Joe Biden does not hit 15% in any of them. There is a real chance he gets shut out in NH. That is the modal outcome in 538’s New Hampshire forecast.
Zero delegates is pretty hard to spin as a good night and if it happens will hurt him in Nevada and may be enough to tip SC to someone else. He may be out by Super Tuesday.
Primary is tomorrow.
Klobuchuar is third in polling! That means Biden and Warren are polling 4th and 5th - in New Hampshire no less. There might be a serious change in the Warren campaign if she can’t get at least third.
With the whole “15% or nothing” of the Iowa caucus, in NH is the primary a straight proportional apportionment or is there a viability threshold there as well.
Damn, 538 says Sanders is more likely to win SC than Biden at this point.
Those graphs imply Sanders got a huge bump from the Iowa Caucus but Buttigieg didn’t nearly as much.
AFAIK, all the states have the 15% requirement to qualify for delegates.
I am almost 100% sure this is true in all Democratic primaries and caucuses. That prevents some fringe candidate from demanding a seat at the table and throwing sand into the gears.
Correct. Also, every state has the “15% rule” at both the Congressional district and “statewide delegates” level. Note that if nobody gets 15%, then it becomes “half of what the winner in that district/statewide got.”
Note that New Hampshire has 8 national delegates in each of its two districts, and 8 based on the statewide vote.
Well, those results are based on several assumptions:
Sanders and Buttigieg will be generally perceived as having split the win in Iowa, rather than either of them having done decisively better than the other.
The candidate(s) perceived as having won Iowa will improve their polling in line with historical averages.
Buttigieg’s overachieving in a State where the demographics are very favorable to him doesn’t greatly improve how he is predicted to do in other States.
In the next few days, we’ll know how the polls actually did move, as well as the NH results, and the model will adjust accordingly.