I know it’s early to start this but I saw this article in Politico. I think the also-rans will be done after South Carolina. Steyer may get a lot of delegates in SC but what is that worth if he doesn’t get delegates anywhere else? Looks like Biden might be set up for a huge disappointment.
The article says Bernie is third and one big question the SC primary would answer is how well Buttigeg and Warren do outside their home territory. Will SC results tank any of their chances for winning the nomination? Perhaps we should table that question until after the NH primary.
Besides that, suppose Bernie comes out of South Carolina as the clear leader? Not being a Dem myself, I’m curious how the Dems on this board will view a Non-Democrat winning their party’s nomination.
I’m OK with Sanders except Trump will be ready to bash him non stop and I don’t see Sanders beating Trump. They will make people think Sanders is related to Karl Marx. And I’m sure they will somehow go after him for being a Jew.
I think the bashing of Sanders will be more effective since he’s viewed as far left. Of course Trump will bash any Dem who runs in the general election.
I can’t judge a state by ten days on the ground there, but it seemed like a very politically apathetic state when I was there in late November/early December. It must be tough being a Dem in such a red state knowing you’ll never win anything except your gerrymandered house seats.
It’s definitely going to be an interesting race. Pete has a skeletal staff there, they’re working hard, but it just seemed to me like talking the primary there was like selling Christmas trees on the 4th of July.
Bernie is going to be a tough sell in SC. There’s not any real area of the state I can think of that’s a liberal oasis in the sea of red. Maybe downtown Greenville, but that strikes me as more college educated Buttigieg/Warren types. Neither USC (the Cocks one) or Clemson is a real hotbed of political activism.
Steyer has been bombarding the state with ads and I mean bombing! The over 50 type that still watch TV and listen to the radio will get a minimum of 15 Steyer ads a day and likely many more.
It’s not a great state for Pete or Warren, obviously if Pete does well in NH, that’s worth something. Another weak 3rd in NH won’t help Warren. Let’s see what Klobuchar does in NH before thinking she’s got mush of a chance. I would find it highly unlikely that she’s got much staff in SC given she’s been way behind the big 4 in fundraising.
Usually the NH winner or big loser gets more news than NV. NV is such a mess being impossible to poll as well as basically being the union endorsements plus whatever Reid is up to that it doesn’t get as much coverage.
Biden is done but has a lot of support among African-Americans.
Which of the 4 (Bernie, Pete, Amy, Mike) has the best chance of picking up black votes in SC?
Or better yet, will they be able to pick up those votes or will African-Americans still vote for Joe “Dead man walking” Biden?
What will the effect of Steyer be? I think he may pick up a few delegates just to release them later when he drops out.
Mike isn’t on the ballot. Steyer won’t make the next debate.
I just can’t see SC being strong for Bernie. It’s a conservative state and I also doubt Bernie will spend a bunch of time or resources there, looking forward to Super Tuesday.
In fact, I think that will be a huge issue for all the candidates who have basically triaged South Carolina to Biden early on. No one expected this hard of a fall for Biden. Does a win in SC help with Super Tuesday? Maybe, but any candidate has to hope it won’t get crowded out by a major news event. That Saturday primary doesn’t help at all.
With the apparent demise of Biden, it’s very much a question mark where his base of moderate, older blacks goes. Historically, these voters have favored familiar, experienced faces, so I think Bernie may pick up a lot more of them than a strictly ideological paradigm would expect. I also think these voters are more prone than most Democrats to doubt that a woman or gay man can win in November. And with Bloomberg’s dubious civil rights record, all the remaining candidates have something that will turn these voters off.
This is overstating it – up until the last few weeks before the caucus, Biden was a good bet to win. Then the polling indicated he was unlikely to win. But he did even more poorly in both states than expected – especially NH. Perception matters, even beyond just 1st place – and right now, AFAICT, the perception is that Biden is faltering. If the SC voters aren’t strongly behind him (and we’ll see how strongly they are), then many of them might switch to other candidates.
I think that if Biden doesn’t win South Carolina, he’s done, since that is where he is supposed to shine as the favored candidate of minority voters (of which there are a significant numbers in that state).
Meanwhile, I think if Sanders does really well there and Nevada (say, top 2 in both), it will prove that he has appeal with minority voters; couple that with his showing in the first two (mainly white) primaries and I think he has the inside track.
The issue is who minority Dems will vote for; if Bernie has their support, I believe that he’s going to be nominated.
If Steyer does not do well, then he’s done and should withdraw.
If Sanders does well, e.g., first or very strong second, then it is probably all over. South Carolina, as others have pointed out, should be a weakness for Sanders, so if he crushes it there, the only way he doesn’t get the nomination is if the DNC stacks the deck against him hard. And if that happens, the Democrats will lose the election. It could conceivably split the part for an extended period of time. Not that this might prevent the DNC from doing it. Sadly the USA has two parties, the party for the rich and the party for the super-rich.
And it looks like, according to 538, Sanders is expected to do at least ok. In my biased opinion, I’m pleased to see this because I would like to see Sanders get the nomination, and I’d especially like to see Sanders win. I think Sanders has as good a chance of beating Trump as anybody, although I think Trump will win.
If South Carolina was coming up next and Nevada the week after, I think Biden would have a slight chance to bounce back. However, I assume he will get a weak 3rd at best in Nevada. Unfortunately for him in that scenario the narrative will be that he not only did poorly in two mostly white states, but in a state with a larger minority population. I think that will be enough to crater his support even in a largely African-American state. Who does that leave as the beneficiary? I’m going to predict Bernie to finish first in the low 30s on the strength of the white vote. Given Mayor Pete’s problems winning minority voters, that leaves Klobuchar as the likely beneficiary and I’m going to predict she comes in 2nd. 3rd place will be either Mayor Pete or Biden, depending on just how poorly Biden does in Nevada. Warren will end up in 5th.
I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory – it seems pretty clear, and pretty out in the open, that the DNC doesn’t really like Bernie. However, I think this is to his benefit, because the DNC makes it so damn obvious, and they’re so incompetent at it. The moment the DNC embraces Bernie (which will come if he becomes the presumptive nominee), I’m not sure if he (or his supporters) would really know what to do – he’s so used to being the angry outsider revolutionary, what would he do as part of the establishment?
I am a Bernie supporter, by the way. We live in weird times.
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