Super Tuesday Primary Discussion

March 3rd
American Samoa
North Carolina

I am not voting since my only choices were Donald Trump and 6 people I’ve never heard of. I’m trying to get people to vote for Klobuchar but after SC I don’t think that’s going very far.

Let’s order this list by number of delegates:

415	California primary
228	Texas primary
110	North Carolina primary
99	Virginia primary
91	Massachusetts primary
75	Minnesota primary
67	Colorado primary
64	Tennessee primary
52	Alabama primary
37	Oklahoma primary
31	Arkansas primary
29	Utah primary
24	Maine primary
16	Vermont primary
6	American Samoa caucuses

I see a lot of Bernie stans on Twitter reassuring themselves that the black vote in Super Tuesday states looks stronger in polls for their man than the blowout in South Carolina. But Nate Silver says black voters tend to decide late and shift to the establishment candidate at the end. If this happens on Tuesday, I will be very happy—because I think it’s a terrible mistake to nominate Bernie, and I will feel like African Americans saved us from that fate. But that makes me wonder if people on the Bernie side are going to start feeling racial resentment, since it was also black voters that denied him the nomination in 2016 (I’m pretty sure he actually won more votes than Hillary among whites, although it was close).

Hopefully they are progressive enough not to go down that road, but it is human nature if you have your hopes and dreams loaded up on a certain outcome and an identifiable group of people repeatedly thwarts you.

This is the big one - go Bernie! We’ll know the true state of the race after Tues.

Bernie will have a good night on Tuesday. I don’t see any scenario in which he doesn’t win more contests and delegates, and he will likely win Texas and California. But Biden probably holds the South and Southeast going forward.

So Biden and Sanders are the new kids on the block to you? :dubious:

He probably is a registered Republican and Colorado (his location says near Denver) has closed primaries. So he probably means the other Republican candidates.

I was going to vote Yang then Steyer. I might end up with none of the above which is an option here.

Saint Cad is in Colorado and a Republican. Here are his choices:

Robert Ardini
Zoltan Istvan
Matthew John Matern
Donald Trump
Bill Weld
Joe Walsh

On top of that Joe Walsh dropped out on February 7th.

I guess Bill Weld is not a household name, but mail in ballots went out on February 10th which seems like more than enough time to Google those nine characters if not all six names.

Also… Zoltan Istvan? I think he was a minor bad guy on the old G.I. Joe cartoon. You don’t need to know anything else about him to know that he deserves your vote.

Super Tuesday:
(Posted by a Sanders fan on Facebook)

Alabama: No polling (52)
American Samoa (caucus): No polling (6)
Arkansas: One poll, Bloomberg +1 (2/6) (31)
California: Sanders +18 (possible no other candidate is viable) (415)
Colorado: Sanders +13 (67)
Maine: One Poll, Sanders +9 (2/13) (24)
Massachusetts: Sanders +4 (91)
Minnesota: Klobuchar +6 (75)
North Carolina: Biden +3 (110)
Oklahoma: Biden +1 (37)
Tennessee: No polling (64)
Texas: Sanders +9 (228)
Vermont: Sanders +38 (possible no other candidate is viable) (16)
Virginia: Sanders +6 (99)
Utah: Sanders +13 (29)


Sanders leading in 8 states
Biden leading in 2 states
Bloomberg leading in 1 state (Arkansas, by one percent)
Klobuchar leading in 1 state (MN, her home)
No Polling: Three states

Buttigeig: Not leading any states
Warren: Not leading any states
Gabbard: Not leading any states

Gabbard has won zero delegates so far
Warren: three straight events with zero delegates
Buttigeig: two straight events with zero delegates

Nitpick: the Democrats Abroad have their primary on Super Tuesday as well.

I think it’s a two man race now. Biden gets a bump out of SC, clears the 15% in CA and comes close if not wins TX. Kloubuchar, Warren, and Buttigieg drop out Wednesday. Maybe even Bloomberg if he becomes convinced that Biden will beat Bernie.

The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more.

If Sanders wins all the delegates in states he leads in the polls (impossible) and zero delegates in other states (also impossible), he would win 969 delegates of the 1990 needed for a nomination on the first ballot. He’d be a bit more than halfway there counting the delegates he has already won.

Ah. Okay. That makes more sense.

There is kind of a racial division among minorities right now though, on top of the age division.

Latinos seem to be going to Bernie while blacks are going towards Biden. Sanders is making inroads with blacks, but I think Biden is still the leader.

So there is the age gap and ideological gap, but also a racial gap between minorities.

Not sure if that will cause problems.

Sanders has a 30% ceiling in a 6 person race, but as 2016 shows his ceiling is higher in a 2 person race.

Assuming several candidates drop out later this week, some will go to Bernie.

I could see Klob, Buttigieg and Warren dropping out later this week.

Someone posted all the 2-candidate preferences by polling from last week or so - Bernie beat every other Democrat, with wide margins against all but 2, IIRC - Warren and Biden (Warren was closest but still lost to Bernie).

I would think that Bernie has 100% of the Democrats who support him. Certainly no more. :slight_smile:

It looks like that 15% threshold is going to decide this race. Biden and Bernie probably make it in almost every state (certainly Bernie) but if another candidate cannot consistently win at least 15%, there is no brokered convention as Biden and Bernie will slug it out and the winner will by definition have a majority of delegates.

I think the outcome of this race depends on Bloomberg. Not that he will win, but whether he causes a brokered convention by denying Sanders a majority.

Also, and I hate to be that guy, but this polling seems to be extremely volatile such that they should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt. Look at SC…Biden was up big for a long time, and as little as a week ago, Bernie was up by 7 points and Biden ends up winning by 30.

I think Bernie certainly takes a hit after SC. Maybe he still wins, but only by 5 instead of 20.

What UltraVires said.

Where are you getting your information? I don’t think this happened.