I see a lot of Bernie stans on Twitter reassuring themselves that the black vote in Super Tuesday states looks stronger in polls for their man than the blowout in South Carolina. But Nate Silver says black voters tend to decide late and shift to the establishment candidate at the end. If this happens on Tuesday, I will be very happy—because I think it’s a terrible mistake to nominate Bernie, and I will feel like African Americans saved us from that fate. But that makes me wonder if people on the Bernie side are going to start feeling racial resentment, since it was also black voters that denied him the nomination in 2016 (I’m pretty sure he actually won more votes than Hillary among whites, although it was close).
Hopefully they are progressive enough not to go down that road, but it is human nature if you have your hopes and dreams loaded up on a certain outcome and an identifiable group of people repeatedly thwarts you.
Bernie will have a good night on Tuesday. I don’t see any scenario in which he doesn’t win more contests and delegates, and he will likely win Texas and California. But Biden probably holds the South and Southeast going forward.
Nitpick: the Democrats Abroad have their primary on Super Tuesday as well.
I think it’s a two man race now. Biden gets a bump out of SC, clears the 15% in CA and comes close if not wins TX. Kloubuchar, Warren, and Buttigieg drop out Wednesday. Maybe even Bloomberg if he becomes convinced that Biden will beat Bernie.
The question of the moment: does Sanders have a ceiling? I think yes, he has maybe 30% of the Democrats who support him but no more.
If Sanders wins all the delegates in states he leads in the polls (impossible) and zero delegates in other states (also impossible), he would win 969 delegates of the 1990 needed for a nomination on the first ballot. He’d be a bit more than halfway there counting the delegates he has already won.
Someone posted all the 2-candidate preferences by polling from last week or so - Bernie beat every other Democrat, with wide margins against all but 2, IIRC - Warren and Biden (Warren was closest but still lost to Bernie).
I would think that Bernie has 100% of the Democrats who support him. Certainly no more.
It looks like that 15% threshold is going to decide this race. Biden and Bernie probably make it in almost every state (certainly Bernie) but if another candidate cannot consistently win at least 15%, there is no brokered convention as Biden and Bernie will slug it out and the winner will by definition have a majority of delegates.
I think the outcome of this race depends on Bloomberg. Not that he will win, but whether he causes a brokered convention by denying Sanders a majority.
Also, and I hate to be that guy, but this polling seems to be extremely volatile such that they should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt. Look at SC…Biden was up big for a long time, and as little as a week ago, Bernie was up by 7 points and Biden ends up winning by 30.
I think Bernie certainly takes a hit after SC. Maybe he still wins, but only by 5 instead of 20.