Democratic Super Tuesday discussion thread

Here’s a thread to discuss all the Democratic races on March 1. My prediction is a sweep for Hillary except for Vermont.

Dem primaries in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia – I should think Sanders at least has a shot in MA and MN, very liberal states they are.

Massachusetts has polls all over the place, but it slightly favors Clinton http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-democratic-presidential-election-2016/

Minnesota is a caucus state , they’re always tricky to predict. Sanders is supposedly competitive in Oklahoma, although I can’t imagine how accurate polls of Democrats in solidly red Oklahoma are.

Oh, I think Sanders will win more than just Vermont. I think he has an excellent shot at Minnesota, Colorado, and Massachusetts as well. All three have a lot of liberal Democrats, all three have a high percentage of well-educated, well-off voters on the Democratic side, and none of the three has much in the way of African Americans. They’re good Sanders territory. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins all three; I would expect him to win at least two.

I also think he has a good shot at Oklahoma, though of course that’s a very different type of state from CO, MN, and MA. Again, low minority representation in the electorate, and a bunch of people who might well be receptive to his particular brand of populism. I know he expects in general to do well in the northern Plains and Rocky Mountain states, and I can see OK being a part of that.

He will lose all the other ST states, I expect, and lose badly in the majority of them. Texas will probably be the closest, and I imagine the networks will call it for Clinton as soon as the polls close.

Sanders will take two or three states, including Vermont, but that’s all. He may take a couple of weeks to concede, but by then everyone but his hard core will have done it for him.

Why on Earth should he or his base concede that soon, with so many states yet to vote?

Because of the growing realization among the less-infatuated that it ain’t gonna happen. I already pointed out that there’s a hard core.

Because most of the United States doesn’t have the demographics of New Hampshire or Vermont, especially delegate rich states.

Looks like Hillary will get the +100 delegates her team wants after Tuesday.

Though as others have pointed out, it really depends on what Sanders wants to accomplish, both originally and here on in.

Oh, he’ll probably stay in for some time after any real chance is gone, sure. That point may have been reached already, but it certainly will after tomorrow.

Here are the current win probabilities derived from PredictIt:


		Clinton	Sanders
Vermont		1.0%	99.0%
Oklahoma	40.0%	60.0%
Colorado	45.7%	54.3%
Minnesota	68.3%	31.7%
Massachusetts	86.7%	13.3%
Virginia	98.0%	2.0%
Alabama		99.0%	1.0%
Arkansas	99.0%	1.0%
Georgia		99.0%	1.0%
Tennessee	99.0%	1.0%
Texas		99.0%	1.0%

Sanders will at most five states if he has a great day. Even in that scenario he’ll be well behind in delegates.

Conversely, it’s not impossible that he wins only one. That would be horrible for him in that he would have only won his home state and and a neighboring state up to this point.

Most likely it will be three and that’s not great for him either.

Sanders needs to win in Massachusetts to stay in the race. From recent polling that looks like it would be a big upset.

If he wins in Oklahoma, Vermont and Massachusetts, he remains perfectly viable, IMO. Otherwise, it’s kitty by the door even though his has been able to raise enormous amounts of cash ($40 million in February) for his campaign.

If he does win those states, he can pin his hopes on New York and California.

Unlike many of the GOPers who’ve dropped out, he won’t owe millions when the dust settles.

PredictIt as of approximately now:


		Clinton	Sanders
Vermont		1.0%	99.0%
Oklahoma	57.7%	42.3%
Colorado	63.4%	36.6%
Minnesota	72.1%	27.9%
Massachusetts	78.6%	21.4%
Texas		98.0%	2.0%
Virginia	98.0%	2.0%
Arkansas	99.0%	1.0%
Tennessee	99.0%	1.0%
Alabama		99.0%	1.0%
Georgia		99.0%	1.0%


Oklahoma has bounced around quite a bit in reaction to polls. The most recently released poll has Clinton +9, but it also a huge 29% undecided which doesn’t seem right this close to the election.

I’m not sure why Colorado has shifted so much. One argument presented in the PredictIt comments thread is that Eastern time zone states might be called as big wins for Clinton before the caucus even starts in Colorado and that this will depress Sanders turn out. I’m not sure I buy that.

I’m in Colorado, and will caucus for Clinton tonight. I am a middle-aged, over-educated, upper middle class white person, as are most of my friends here in Boulder. My wife is undecided between Clinton and Sanders, and I’d say my friends are split, with a slight bias toward Clinton. We’ve received one in-person contact from a Clinton canvasser, none from Sanders, but I think Sanders is stronger in the neighborhoods closer to the CU campus.

Looks like it will be very close.

Interesting to see on Facebook that when Bernie babies post their copy and paste spam into the comments section of news articles, they’re getting a lot of angry feedback.

I can hope that it’s a sign that Bernie is crushed on Super Tuesday and only takes Vermont

I am also in CO, but I’m not from here and almost no one I work with is either. I’ll be caucusing for Clinton and the only other person that I know is caucusing is going for Sanders.

I have not been contacted by either campaign.

I’m in Lakewood and work in Westminster.

Around 1,200 CU chemistry students can get out of an exam today if the caucus and provide a selfie verifying that they caucused.

This may help Sanders.

Link

Sanders is the only candidate of either party who has not campaigned at all in Tennessee. I haven’t even seen a TV ad for him, and I’ve seen several for Clinton. So my point is giving him a 1% chance to win is absurdly optimistic.

I read somewhere that Sanders is only running TV ads in five Super Tuesday states: CO, MA, MN, OK, and VT.