Polls open soon in South Carolina and 538 is showing Clinton with a better than 99% chance to win, projecting that she will take about 67% of the vote.
Here are a couple nice pieces showing how well her campaign has kicked into gear in SC, reversing the enthusiasm gap:
Polls close in about a half hour now…
I predict the race is called within 10 minutes of polls closing.
It won’t even take that long. It will be called at 7:00:01.
Yes prollly so.
Just to keep in mind, for those who are following the (updated) Nate Silver projections of “where Sanders needs to finish to have a chance” scorecard (which is based on an election split 50-50 nationwide, which isn’t quite as good as it really is for Sanders atm), he needs to lose by < 20%, 20%+ and he’s “off track” to have a path to the nomination in a 50-50 nationwide matchup.
I see that everyone has called it for Hillary, but I don’t see any actual numbers yet.
Exit polls say 67-33. I’ll look for a link.
Thanks andy. I don’t see any numbers there even after I use the drop-down menu but I’m starting to see numbers on other sites.
Hmmm… That’s a bigger difference than the 25-point lead 538 had in recent polls. OK, well, they said there was a firewall. Maybe it’s harder to get turnout just to shoot for a closer “loss”?
Thanks, Andy. I’m seeing the numbers and they are super interesting. Sanders won white men 2-1, they split white women evenly, and Clinton dominated with everyone else. Kind of an interesting dynamic for the progressive tribune to have white men as his base.
The dynamic we had seen in the past of Sanders having a downscale demographic seems to have disappeared: he did best with the wealthy.
Amazing that Clinton won (albeit narrowly) even those who said income inequality was the most important issue to them.
Hilarious, Sanders supporters asking for restraint and decorum on many of the political blogs and comments sections. Just like they were restrained after New Hampshire.
Based on the early results and the exit polling FiveThirtyEight is projecting a 30 pt loss, a setback for the Sanders campaign since that’s 10 pts off where he needed to finish, and it shows he’s moved in the wrong direction since Nevada (where he only missed where he needed to finish by 5 pts.) If this trend continues Sanders will be down about 160-170 delegates after Super Tuesday, and while that “seems” small, Hillary got behind Obama by less than that and she could never recover. Proportional cuts both ways–it’s not easy to just win a huge % of the delegates like it is in the GOP primary and have it mathematically won early, but likewise there is no magic way to make a triple digit delegate lead disappear, either. It’s just super damaging that Bernie is likely going to lose probably a grand total (before March is over) of a dozen states by double digit margins, and his best showings outside of Vermont will likely be bruising out draws with Hillary or 4-5pt wins. To make up for Hillary winning by 25-30pts in places like Georgia and Texas Bernie would need equally large wins in states (or combinations of states) with similar total delegate counts, and the map just isn’t set up that way.
Wow. I expected her to win, but not by this much. I’m seeing 77% now.
She isn’t expected to win by quite that much, based on which precincts have reported in (only 7%) and exit polling the estimates I’m seeing are a 30-35 pt win.
Right, but we should go with the Golden Rule rather than eye for an eye. We got this, no need to rub their noses in it.
Which is pretty much exactly what 538’s polls plus had placed as their most likely point. Props to them.
Looking for good spin for Sanders here. The loss may indeed turn out to be 34 points (!) but he still won solidly with the 17 to 29 year old group (63 to 37) and won modestly with White voters (58 to 42) even though SC Whites are less liberal than the first states. And he won White women.
Yeah he is far off from his 50/50 metric. Farther than he’s been. But mainly because he tanked so badly in the Black demographic. SC Blacks apparently just don’t buy him as authentic on issues that matter to them. Its bodes ominously for Tuesday’s results. 58% White is not enough to offset that poor of a showing in Blacks. Texas I think will be the most telling. There it is not the Black vote as much but relatively Hispanics that are the non-White vote.
MSNBC reporting that Clinton won older blacks (over 65) by 96% to 3% !!
and African Americans in general by about 5 to 1.