Inspired by this Vox article, which argues strongly that he is, and this 538 chat, discussing same.
There have beenthree decent pollsof this question this spring (scroll about halfway down the page). Bernie won all three of them, but with no more than 20% support. There were three different runners-up, Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama (
) and Hillary Clinton (:eek:).
My conclusions: Although Sanders is clearly nowhere near the commanding position that Hillary Clinton was in four years ago, he does seem to be the single person most likely to gain the nomination (but with a chance well below 50%).
The Vox article argues convincingly that, unlike many of the others being discussed, he pretty clearly is intending to run. He has an active organization of activists and donors, Our Revolution, so he has a huge head start over any other candidate in terms of establishing a ground game. And he ismassively popular, with an approval rating of 57% among the general public and 80% among Democrats. Nobody else comes close.
On the other hand: Clearly many people in the Democratic institutional hierarchy can’t stand him, some on ideological grounds but others personally. The influence of superdelegates will be less in 2020, but still present. Ultimately the voters decide, but this is still a problem.
It was recently announced that his wife is being investigated for bank fraud by the FBI. If that comes to anything, it will be a massive blow to his brand; it’s hard to think of any politician whose career is less likely to survive revelations of financial hanky-panky.
And, if elected, he would be 79 years old on Inauguration Day. That’s older than Reagan was when he* left *office.
My personal opinion: I love and admire Bernie Sanders. He has been one of my heroes since childhood. But I’m well into middle age now, and that’s a problem. I don’t want an octogenarian President.
This wasn’t relevant in the last election, because his opponent was almost as ancient, but really, can’t we find a popular progressive who hasn’t passed what most people think of as retirement age? Maybe not; although I can’t find a link to the actual raw poll results, it seems from the article that the only other Democrat potential candidate with a positive net approval is the elderly Ms. Warren, and she has a much higher number of no-opinions.
I would like to hope that someone younger can be found (Baldwin? Merkley?), but if as the election draws nearer, it remains clear that Bernie Sanders has the best chance of beating the Republican…well, we already made that mistake once. Nominate him and pray for his health (and for a good VP choice).
About the other candidates: Michelle Obama? Really? I mean, she seems like a very smart and decent person, and she has had the opportunity to see close up how a successful Presidency works, but… I prefer to elect a President who has actually held high-level elected office before. My crystal ball says that the percentage of Americans who agree with me will steadily rise between now and 2020. Likewise, dismissing Mark Cuban, Oprah and the Rock as serious candidates.
Biden and Warren are almost as old as Sanders and don’t have comparable progressive credentials. If either of them were fifteen years younger, I could see an argument for picking them over Bernie, but they’re not.
Hillary Clinton? Really? Is this actually a thing? I can’t even…