March 17: the overshadowed-by-covid-19 primaries (FL,IL,OH,AZ)

On Tuesday, March 17, four states with 577 delegates will vote: FL (219), IL (155), OH (136), and AZ (67). Once those states have voted, the voting for 61.5% of the delegates will have been completed.

This is the last big batch of delegates to be chosen for quite a while: between March 17 and April 28, when six Northeastern states with 663 delegates will vote, there will not be a day when more than 107 delegates are up for grabs; it’ll be just dribs and drabs.

So, which geezer will all the retirees in FL and AZ vote for? Will Bernie show that he has as much appeal to the Midwestern voters of Ohio and Illinois as he had last week with the voters of Michigan?

We’re all hanging on the edge of our seats, I know. :stuck_out_tongue: But I figured a thread would be in order.

In Arizona, 538 shows Biden leading over Bernie. We’re becoming a purple state, and none too soon. Mark Kelly is leading McSally for the Senate race, so that’s awesome. McSally was appointed by the Governor when McCain died.

I think it is probably safe to guess which geezer the Cuban and Venezuelan Americans in Florida will vote for. The bright side for Sanders is that Florida is a closed primary. That limits the potential damage among a Republican leaning demographic.

Nate Silver tweets:

Fat lady’s warming up her vocal cords.

If Sanders get blown out in all 4 states I don’t see how he can stay in the race. As Yogi Berra said, it ain’t over til it’s over. :slight_smile: It should be over for Sanders Tues.

He can’t have his massive ego stroking rallies. The news will be all Corona, it would be pointless. I’ve had MSNBC in the background all day and don’t think I’ve seen his waggling finger yet.

Bet he stays in, even if the margins for Biden are huge.

He’ll find a way to rationalize it.

All states haven’t had the chance to vote!!! And I want to get my message out. Same shit as 2016z


Sanders is not even remotely on to himself. When I think of him I’m inevitably reminded of Richard Feynman’s immortal remark:

What are the odds that all four of those primaries take place as scheduled?

I think they will. Caucuses would be another story, no?

older folks may stay home and that could depress Biden’s numbers. Can’t blame them for staying home at this point.

Well, Louisiana postponed, which is what got me thinking about it.

Illinois will hold its election. I’m an election judge, and the only major change in election plans is that polling places in long-term care and senior living facilities have been moved. I’m pretty sure this will quite dramatically reduce the number of older people voting.

ETA: I’m bringing my crochet project to the polling place. I envision that turnout will be very light.

Didn’t think about that, I used to vote at that senior living center on Briar.

Georgia just postponed.

I suspect the virus will keep more older people away, meaning some advantage to Sanders. But Biden has such big polling leads in those states it probably doesn’t matter.

And, the college students are now spread out and dealing with the transition to online classes, so that could mitigate it some as Sanders might lose some votes.

I’m an Illinois voter, and couldn’t tell you the last time I skipped an election. However, I’m considering skipping the primary. I’m not certain, but I’m thinking about it. I wouldn’t skip the general, not with Trump on the ticket, but there I’ll support whoever the Democrat is. Covid-19 is why I’m considering skipping the primary.

Biden is expected to win Illinois, and that’s who I’d vote for. I’ll let you know Tuesday, this virus crap seems to get weirder by the hour, so Tuesday could be a long way away.
(I took my stepdaughter to a restaurant in Orland Park today, and was a little hesitant to do that. But she was in favor, and we went. TBy the time we got home it was announced that tomorrow all sit down restaurants and bars in Illinois are going to be closed for the next 2 weeks plus.)

With the new CDC guidelines, I don’t see how they can justify holding primaries. I think turnout will be light and skewed younger which may favor Sanders. OTOH, never count out the old folks. They are the ones who always show up in snowstorms when the younger ones cancel. I just wish that these four big states had already voted. No matter what, the results will be skewed.