It is certainly looking that way both in the RCP betting odds and the 538 model. The two are evenly matched and no one else looks like having a serious chance.
So will this race become a straight contest between the two say after Super Tuesday? Obviously the candidate most likely to challenge them is Warren and the question is whether she will have the means to continue if she keeps losing primaries and whether there will be pressure on her from the left to make it a straight contest.
Who would win a straight contest? I have to think Biden is the favorite. Bernie has a lot of enthusiasm but I also suspect there is a ceiling to his support of around 40% and it’s hard to win a two-person race with that. Plus if it does become Biden vs Bernie there will be an steady stream of mainstream Democrats who endorse Biden which cumulatively will help him. On the whole I think it will be a repeat of 2016; if anything Biden is a better campaigner than Hillary.
It’s a bit too early to speculate as Buttigieg or Warren could surprise in IA and change the narrative immediately a week from today.
But, if it comes down to Bernie vs anyone, the anyone will win. Bernie has got a damn hard ceiling of #NeverBernie people and as Hillary has mentioned, none of his Congressional colleagues like him. Endorsements will flow like cheap champagne on NYE if it’s a Bernie vs Biden race. A lot of that money that Buttigieg and Warren have been raising would start flowing to Biden.
Plus the spotlight will be on Bernie and I don’t think Bernie will like it one bit. Bernie’s life before 40 isn’t a story that will cause thousands of new voters to flock to him.
Biden may not be a better campaigner than Hillary, but we’ve all learned not to just handle Bernie with kid gloves this time around. Bernie is stubborn as hell and won’t quit the race even if he falls hopelessly behind in the delegate count. He’s got his email list and they’ll keep donating. The conspiracy theories will fly everywhere.
Well, to be fair, Trump wasn’t getting insider support all the way up to the GOP convention. And his support ceiling has never been more than around 40%. And there was an active #NeverTrump movement at the time as well.
The big difference, as I see it, is that the GOP did not really have a front-runner to challenge Trump in the primaries. Although Bush was the anointed one, he never really caught on. So there wasn’t a Biden like figure on that side.
The main difference is the primary rules. The Republicans have a lot of winner take all and winner take most states so Trump was able to steamroll in the primaries and rack up delegates.
At this point, it already looks like a 2.5-person race: Biden and Bernie, with Warren hanging on by her fingernails and needing a win in Iowa to stay alive. Bernie’s probably winning NH no matter what happens in Iowa, and Biden’s going to win SC no matter what happens in IA/NH, and both have the popular support and resources to keep going awhile.
Warren’s got the money to keep going to Super Tuesday, but if she doesn’t win an early primary (and that really means Iowa), her popular support is going to diminish.
Klobuchar’s going nowhere unless she wins Iowa. Buttigieg’s going nowhere even if he wins Iowa.
I agree that Warren is the only one who can plausibly spring a surprise. The others are in single digits nationally, which just seems too far back at this stage even if they pull off a surprise win somewhere.
But even if Warren recovers it will be hard for her to win a three-way race with Biden and Bernie; I think Biden wins that too though perhaps only after a long slog.
What Warren really wanted was to knock Bernie out early and make it a two-way with Biden which would have been difficult for him. A few months back, especially after Bernie’s heart attack, that looked plausible. Right now it looks like Bernie is set for the long haul.
So to summarize:
Biden vs Bernie: Biden wins quite easily
Biden vs Bernie vs Warren: Biden wins but not easily
Biden vs Warren: Warren has the edge.
The last one doesn’t seem likely, so bottom line: things are looking pretty good for Biden.
Warren’s heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time, and I think her attacks on Bernie have backfired, the damage likely permanent.
I like Klobuchar, but she just doesn’t have that special ‘it’ factor that people are looking for right now, and I am increasingly wondering if the same problem won’t eventually affect Joe Biden as well. We’re at one of those interesting crossroads in history, a moment with a clear ‘before’ and ‘after.’ In 1858-59, the conventional wisdom would have suggested that Stephen A. Douglas was a safer bet to win the approaching election than that tall Springfield lawyer who sported a funny top hat. But we know how that turned out. Not that I’m suggesting that we’re on the eve of a Civil War or that Bernie Sanders is Abe Lincoln. The point is, we’re in one of those moments when voters have a sense of urgency, a sense that they want to break from the politics of normal, and like it or not, wise or not, safe or not, that seems to be how our politics are tilted at the moment. This sort of dynamic favors a Bernie Sanders type candidate over a Joe Biden.
Warren seems to be picking up a lot of endorsements here in Iowa and there was a ton of excitement at her rally last night here in CR. Place was packed out and she was dynamic.
Certainly doesn’t feel like a Bernie vs Biden race here.
I still don’t understand why she never took a moment during any of the debates to draw a comparison/contrast between her and Biden on the 2005 Bankruptcy Act. Getting into this ‘Bernie doesn’t believe a woman can win’ bit was clumsy by itself, but instead of pointing out that Biden’s owned by the big-money boys? I’d been waiting for that for months, and…nothing.
I think you’re right, but I also think that’s why it’s important that the Dems pass a metric ton of serious legislation in 2021-22. They need to deal with (1) climate change, (2) democracy restoration, and (3) improving people’s lives in tangible ways.
The need to do (1) and (2) should hopefully be obvious, but if (3) doesn’t happen, then they’ll have another midterm disaster in 2022. In 2022, they’ll need the votes of marginal supporters who know who’s President, but may not know who controls Congress, and won’t know jack shit about the filibuster, just whether the Dems have come through for them or not.
I figure (3) should be the easiest lift of the bunch, assuming the Dems win the Senate this fall. (I don’t even dare think of how things go if the Dems win the White House but not the Senate.) If they can’t manage that, then Lord help us all.
Since Bernie and Warren’s support base heavily overlaps (the left progressive wing,) the more Bernie builds a lead over Warren, the heavier the pressure Bernie Bros will put on Warren to drop out so as to stop splitting the progressive wing further. Of course, this will likely make the Warrenites double down all the more.
Michael Moore argued in a speech a few days ago that every recent time the Democrats have nominated a “safe” candidate, they lost - Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, and Hillary in 2016. Obama won in 2008 because he was the significantly different, major-change guy - not just in policies but also in race/skin color being a “first”.
Bernie Sanders: 40¢
Joe Biden: 35¢
Michael Bloomberg: 14¢
Andrew Yang: 9¢
Elizabeth Warren: 7¢
Pete Buttigieg: 5¢
I think this is, for the most part, absolutely bonkers. e.g. Bloomberg No at 86¢ is a steal. You can probably sell those shares in a week for 95¢ when he earns zero state delegate equivalents in Iowa.
The Senate is going to be very tough but it is doable. The Democrats do have the advantage of having a lot of good surrogates they can send out for senate races. As of today, I assume Alabama is lost and Colorado is a win. As sweet as it would be to get rid of McConnell and Lindsey Graham, I think those seats will be triaged quickly. The Democrats need to use Barack and Michelle Obama as well as Bill and Hillary Clinton. Assuming the nominee is Biden then also send out some of the other former candidates. Kamala Harris is right next door to Arizona and perhaps Beto. Pete and Klobuchar to Iowa, Bernie to college towns everywhere and Maine. Get all hands on deck.
The Democrats do have the advantage of having a lot of big names that are generally liked. There’s some areas where Bill Clinton would have to avoid and the same for Bernie. But, in a place like North Carolina, Bill Clinton could work Charlotte and Bernie could work the college towns and Asheville.
And the final ace might be Bloomberg’s and Steyer’s money if they’re willing to use it for the Senate as well.
I doubt it. That’s not her campaign style. Hillary Clinton has always been inside the political mainstream; somebody who works her connections with party leaders and donors. A surprise last minute run would not play to her strengths; most of the people she has connections with have already chosen other candidates by now. Her style of campaign is to get in early and lock everything in before the other candidates can build up momentum.
I agree. This has only been the first round of the campaign. The second round will be the primaries and that could drastically change the position of the remaining candidates.