Very small sample size. Also, incumbency and economic factors that can explain all other modern U.S. presidential elections also explain the three Moore cited.
Of course, all presidential elections still makes for a small sample. That’s why, to be serious about electability data, you have to go congressional:
I’m not crazy about Biden, but a lot of hopefully lazy-on-election-day 2016 Trump voters have made up their minds that he’s the one Democrat who isn’t scary.
Warren probably won’t get the nomination because of fears that she’s the next Hillary, but I like her chances if she does. Being able to say she was a Republican before they went crazy is huge. Some center-rightists wouldn’t want to be in a position where it looks like they will never vote for a woman (or two women), and so would be inclined to buy that. Pocahontas? Trump is going to have an effective character assassination riff against any opponent. I don’t think cultural appropriation would hurt the way honeymoon in the U.S.S.R. will. (Note to young people who don’t think that last sounds bad: old people vote much more than your crowd does).
Bloomberg is conceding the early races; he’s competing in the hopes that he can start stealing delegates on Super Tuesday and start gaining momentum from there. TBH, I’m not sure how seriously he takes himself but I’m guessing he’s not one to piss away a billion dollars for shits and giggles. For Bloomberg to win, he’d not to deny everyone else the needed delegates to win the nomination and have enough momentum to make the case that he could beat Trump in a general election. And yes, this is a long shot.
I think having so many candidates in the race really hurt good candidates like Warren. When there are so many faces to remember, branding becomes a real challenge. In any other year, Warren wouldn’t have had to worry at all about her brand because she was already a household name when it comes to being a pragmatic but firmly left firebrand. But when you’ve got Sanders with his grassroots machine running to the left of you, and you’re supposed to be known as the edgy left wing senator from Massachusetts, you get trapped into trying to squeeze between Sanders and Biden, and that’s a tough place to be. Not to mention all the fruitcake candidates like Williamson, Gabbard, and Yang.
People say that Biden has the black vote locked up, but he is hovering at around 45% of the black vote with Sanders at about 20%. I"m guessing Biden will win the majority of the black vote, but it’ll probably be closer to 60/40 for Biden in a 2 person race. And the black vote is only 1/4 of the democratic vote.
Liberals make up 55% of the democratic electorate, but I’m guessing some feel Bernie is too far left too early, and they fear a backlash making them pick Biden as the safe option.
If I had to guess, I’d wager in a 2 person race it’ll be 55% Biden, 45% Sanders.
It will be Biden. He is Hillary v2.02. Someone safe, of the corporate class, that will be electable.
Nothing really changes, as it is meant to be. Despite the talk of the young people in the party, it will be old Joe . Continuing the alienation and separation of The Democratic Party from the base.
He doesn’t even seem to want the job. But he is your guy.
If you can see Joe Biden beating Trump in the general election, well, bless your heart for the optimism.
Michael Moore’s an idiot. Obama was not some wild-eyed liberal. He was a mainstream moderate Democrat. Politically, he was in accord with Clinton, Kerry, and Gore.
If being the first black presidential candidate made him different enough to be electable, then why didn’t being the first female presidential candidate do the same?
Who were the “unsafe” candidates that Moore thinks were a better choice than Gore and Kerry? Bill Bradley? Dick Gephardt? John Edwards?
And how does Moore explain Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton winning? They were both moderates. It was George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey, both noted as liberals, who lost.
I can answer all of these questions: Michael Moore’s an idiot.
What do you think a base is? If Biden wins the primaries, it’s because he has the support the base. The actual base; not whatever group you want to imagine is the base.
Then after the Democratic base has selected their candidate, they have to convince people who aren’t Democrats to vote for that person. Are you going to argue that the Democrats would have an easier time convincing non-Democrats to vote for Sanders or Buttigieg or Warren than they would with Biden?
In some regards, Bloomberg is already ahead of Buttigieg and almost even with Warren, particularly considering when Bloomberg entered the race. Bloomberg also has the ability to establish his own lane. An aggressive, unapologetic progressive but also a capitalist who trusts the marketplace: in the eyes of Biden voters, he’s clearly more appealing than Sanders, and in the eyes of Sanders and Warren voters, he’s unafraid to take liberal positions.
With the economy the way it is, and the power of incumbency, the election is Trump’s to lose.
As for Trump having low popularity, being outrageously negative about opponents lowers your own popularity a lot – but also hurts your opponents. And Trump is a brilliant negative campaigner.
So it would be a mistake for those who oppose the trend towards autocratic rule, in my country, to be optimistic, period.
In Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America, the one-term nightmare seemed to have left no lasting damage. After a real world populist victory, that doesn’t usually happen.
While I think nominating a former Trotskyite communist, without any clear route for a general election campaign swing to the center, would be a gift to Trump, DJT will probably win regardless. And if doesn’t win, he’ll insist it was stolen, and there probably will be competing slates for Mike Pence to pick from when he presides over the electoral vote count. While it isn’t hopeless, it would be nuts for Trump opponents to be optimistic, period.
If Biden is the guy there is a very good chance I vote green or not at all. Would never vote for Trump. I could vote for the others but for Sanders I would have to hold my nose to vote for him.
I am in NC. Obama won here in 2008 but not 2012. Clinton was here a lot in 2016 but she lost by 3%. Don’t see any Dem winning here this year but I certainly may be wrong. Sanders would do the worst here. Warren probably has the best shot here.
You realize throwing your vote away on some kooky green is the same as voting for Trump. If I lived in swingy NC, I’d take the day off from work, vote for Biden first thing, and then buy a bottle of Jack Daniels and down it all before noon but at least I did what I could. Because, you know what? Some evangelicals will hold their nose, vote for Trump and then go home and grab their Bible just as they did in 2016.
I actually do think Biden has the best shot of taking down Trump in the EC. I think he’ll have Pennsylvania locked up and will have some carry over effects into Ohio. If he picks Klobuchar, I think he can turn Wisconsin as well. I mean I don’t think he’ll win the Popular Vote as much as Clinton did, but I think he can turn enough states that it won’t matter as much.
Lots of people make predictions. How many chuckleheads get on CNBC and brazenly predict the next recession? Yes, they were right in 2008, but that doesn’t give them a pass for the 25 other recessions they predicted which didn’t happen.
