I’m starting a new thread because things are starting to get a bit more serious now.
Breaking news says that Beto is ending his campaign today. I assume it’s because October fundraising came in too low to continue on. It’s a really odd day to do so, however since it’s the Liberty and Justice dinner tonight, a huge Democratic event in Iowa. The announcement came when Pete Buttigieg and probably other candidates were giving warm up speeches in front of their crowds of supporters in Des Moines.
I expect we will see a few more campaigns fold. You’ve got to front load your Q4 fundraising in October since
November and December get crowded out by holidays as well as charitable tax deductible contributions.
There are only five candidates (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Harris) who are clearly drawing more support than Beto, and another two (Yang, Klobuchar) who are at about the same place in the polling averages as Beto is, or rather was.
Everyone else should follow his example and GTFO of this race.
I agree. I think the ideal scenario would be for about seven to go to Iowa, and the ones you name sound good. From there I think the ideal scenario would be for one or two to drop our after Iowa and NH, then another two after Nevada and SC. I think four candidates going into Super Tuesday would be ideal. Hopefully Bernie is not one of them.
I imagine Beto realized he probably couldn’t make payroll, assuming he pays his staff on the 1st and 15th. He probably paid them today and decided to end it rather than the embarrassment of not being able to pay them next pay cycle.
Closing New Hampshire offices to go all in on Iowa is a desperation sign from Harris. She may be out by Thanksgiving. Unlike Beto, she started off strong and it just didn’t work.
If Harris and Beto get out, that gives the DNC a lot muscle to kick out the rest of the fringe candidates. The Yang Gang will scream on Twitter, but they’re a cult, not Democrats.
At this point, if you can’t raise money, you either drop out or run a campaign because you want to live off of other people’s cash and travel around the country just talking shit for the next 6-12 months.
Let’s not go too far overboard. At this point in the 2008 campaign, John McCain was so broke he had to cut staff, park his plane, and fill up his Straight Talk Express bus on credit cards.
Having pointed that out, I’ll predict that unless Klobuchar gets at least 15% in Iowa, she’ll drop out.
I’d be happy with a final four of Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren.
I’ve been a Warren supporter, but lately I’m starting to lose faith that her proposals would be palatable to the electorate.
Buttigieg struggles with trying to leap from mayor of a town he has only done a middling job running, but damn If I don’t keep coming back to him as the most polished and impressive leader. Dude just has presence.
True, but McCain still had almost 100% name recognition and had run a strong campaign against Bush in 2000. Until McCain got too ill, I don’t think there was a Sunday which didn’t have McCain on one of the Sunday news shows from 1988 onward.
Unless the Dems keep the House and retake the Senate, none of the (I hope) Democratic President’s proposals will count for shit. McConnell will block everything as the Hamster Wheel of Fortune begins its inexorable rotation.
What’s Booker up to? I could see him hang on, despite low polling and fundraising numbers. My dream is that Sanders drops out now and that somehow boosts Booker. Not that I’d necessarily want Booker to be the final candidate (though that wouldn’t be bad), but I do want the public to give him another look.
(Partly a propos if my question about Booker, a nice little NY Times article from a few days ago, about how candidates of color aren’t in the top tier now.)
All apologies if this is a hijack, but since the thread just mentioned McCain and a guy dropping out, I wonder: say Biden eventually drops out, and it’s Trump against Warren; can we expect to hear a lot of ‘reluctant’ Trump voters say, “y’know, I could’ve voted for Joe Biden: Trump isn’t perfect, I’m no Trump supporter; but Warren would be worse for the country. Biden, though? I really could’ve gotten behind Biden.”
(I’m not asking if they’ll mean it; I’m asking if they’ll say it, a lot.)
It’s looking like the final four might consist of Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg. Harris and Booker are long-shot candidates at this point, as is Klobuchar.
Of all the ‘possibles’ remaining, I’d like to see Klobuchar gain some traction, but I think people are addicted to personality and ‘memery’ in this God forsaken land.