Sorry if this would fit better in one of the many other threads, but I wondered what folk thought would be the timeline of winnowing process. What do we have now - 19 Dem candidates? When will it get down to 10? 5?
What are the factors/milestones that will cause the lowest rated to drop out? Fundraising targets? Debates? Iowa?
Super Tuesday will get it down to 2 or 3 plausible candidates, and maybe even the nominee, although there will still be hopefuls hanging on for a while longer. The bottom tier will drop out by the end of January, when they don’t have the funds to campaign everywhere they need to.
I suspect it will start to narrow after the first pair of debates. Maybe just a few will drop out, and then a handful more after the next set of debates.
Oh - and for those of us non-junkies - would respondents please be kind enough to offer estimates as to when the events they suggest will occur?
Apologies, but off the top of my head, I don’t know when Super Tuesday of the debates are scheduled to occur, and my lazy preference is not to have to google each response. Just “this fall”, “next spring,” or “February” would be specific enough.
Not doing your homework for ya, son.
Yes, I think the debates will begin the winnowing process in earnest. Those few that haven’t made the cut are likely to drop out fairly soon (that includes you, Governor Bullock, no matter how much you whine), and those that fail to make an impact during the first debate will likely follow suit. Standing out in a field of 20-ish won’t be easy, particularly with the Bernie-and-Joe Show sucking the oxygen from the room, but those that can hold their own will likely still be around for the next round.
Not being minimally helpful either, daughter.
There’s also going to be some who basically give up and stop all campaign spending without officially ending their campaign.
Typically Iowa and New Hampshire narrow the field a bit, but given NH’s proximity to Vermont Bernie has such an inside track there it probably won’t be dispositive. So, yeah, Super Tuesday will probably take things down to a manageable level.
California will be on Super Tuesday this time. It may be over that evening.
Yes, Super Tuesday is massive this year. In addition to California, you have Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. That’s almost assuredly when most would drop out.
And then you have Michigan and Ohio (among others) the next week and Arizona, Florida, and Illinois after that. Georgia has moved it’s primary up to March 24. The race should be all good and over by that point if it hasn’t done so before.
In reality, it’s already narrow, with only one candidate polling above 20% (Biden at 31%, actually), only two more (Sanders and Warren) polling above 10%, and only two (Buttigieg and Harris) more polling over 5%. Beyond that you have maybe two or three long shot candidates and the rest are just seeing what it’s like to run for president. So the field is already narrow; it’s just a matter of when ‘seeing what it’s like to run for president’ becomes too expensive.
Its worth noting that at this point in the republican primary for the 2008 election, the front runner was Giuliani (polling at ~26%) and #2 was Fred Thompson (~19%).
Caveat, what I’m talking about here is what the candidates call “suspending my campaign,” not formally quitting and being pressured to give their contributions back.
Of the 24 (is it 24?) current candidates, you’ll have maybe five drop out by the end of the year because no one knows their name and they can’t raise money.
The Iowa caucus is Feb.3 and the New Hampshire primary is Feb. 11. Anyone who finishes in the bottom five in both states will probably quit, because no one will care anymore.
Nevada is Feb. 22 and S. Carolina is Feb. 29. There may be a couple more who drop out then, but just about everyone will hang around for. . .
SUPER TUESDAY Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia primaries, all on March 3.
There may be one or two optimists who keep on because the Rust Belt states haven’t been heard from yet. But Michigan and Ohio primaries are March 10, and Illinois is March 17, and those will make or break them.
At that point it will be down to 2-3 real candidates, and others who stay in the campaign because a) they aren’t really running for President, they’re running for exposure or a cause
b) they think their handful of delegates will matter if the party is deadlocked going into the convention (“spoiler” candidates or the “Anyone but ____” movement; or
c) for some reason, they still have some money and nothing better to do with their time.
John McCain was right in it at 15% and Romney was around 10%. The top two vote getters were polling in the top four at this point in the 2008 cycle, and near or above 10%.
True, but there were only five candidates and McCain, the eventual nominee, was well within striking distance at that time. Most of the field is trailing Biden by 20-30 percentage points, including some relatively well-known political figures. It’s not that Biden’s invincible; it’s that the candidates hovering around 1% are competing just for people to know that they’re even running.
The 2016 Republican field is only a marginally better example to use when discussing volatility in the polls at this stage. At this stage, Bush, Rubio, and Walker were at the top while Trump and Cruz got off to a slow start. But unlike Biden, Bush was a weak front-runner. Rubio collapsed after the primaries started but he was at least competitive until then. Of the early front runners, Walker fell the hardest. The real story of course was the rise of Trump and, to a lesser extent, Cruz. I don’t think the Democratic field has a candidate like Trump. Elizabeth Warren seems like she might be the Ted Cruz of this year’s primary – obviously not in terms of policy or personality, but in terms of connecting with the base of the party and energizing voters. There might be room for another one or two surprise candidates. Andrew Yang might be the Ron Paul of the Democratic primary. Little chance of winning but definitely capable of getting attention.
Like many here, I do believe there will be a shift after the debates, and some of the shifting will surprise us. One or two candidates in the top five right now may collapse, and one or two currently struggling to stay in the top 10 may move into a better position. But for most of the field, the debates are the absolute last chance they have at all. Those who don’t move up by this time next month are running zombie campaigns.
Part of prognosticating includes understanding the 15% rule. Democratic primary and caucus delegates are split proportionately among all who get at least 15% of the vote. Those who get less than 15% of the vote get zero delegates.It’s very different than the R side and plays out strangely in a big field.
Right now only Biden consistently gets more than that 15% threshold and Sanders and Warren each flirt with the margin, sometimes one or the other over it. Buttigieg and Harris aren’t hitting it.
I don’t know when anyone officially drops out but I gotta think those who get no delegates in either IA or NH are done as far as meaningful fundraising or chance. My guess is that those polling under 7 now will try to hang on through a few debates hoping for a moment that catches fire and when that does not happen? Not sure if they hang on for humiliation/ego (two sides of the same coin) or drop but effectively same thing.
For practical purposes after NH you’ll have Biden, either Warren (more likely) or Sanders, and maybe Harris. Buttigieg will have no delegates and not enough resource to keep going in any real way. Sanders won’t drop out and will continue to get 7 to 8% of the vote but no delegates, spoiling Warren’s chances to catch Biden and keeping her below 15% in some states, and I’m thinking Harris will become the major Biden alternative.
I would not be surprised if the race is considered decided after Super Tuesday.
Thank you.
Good lord - I had hoped things would e winnowed down less than 7 months from now! :eek:
The first round of debates is next Wednesday and Thursday:
Night 1 — Wednesday, June 26th
Night 2 — Thursday, June 27th
The second round of debates will be July 30th and 31st.
As I said, the debates will inevitably cull some of the weaker members of the herd. Speaking of which, the following candidates did not qualify for the debates:
Thanks. My interest has been impaired both by the vast number of candidates, and the certainty that I will vote for whomever the Dems nominate - in my predictably blue state.
I think less-popular candidates are valuable in framing the discussion/issues. But the current crowd makes it hard for ANYONE to take it seriously. Eager for it to get down into single digits…