If anyone’s checked their inbox, you’ll notice that you’re getting bombarded with political fundraising emails as we approach the end of November and that’s on top of all the Black Friday and Cyber Monday emails.
The Thanksgiving weekend would be a good weekend for a candidate(s) to drop out as it conveniently is also the end of the month. I assume that’s why Beto dropped out right on the 1st as he realized that October fundraising wasn’t enough to keep going on.
Any predictions for who’s next to drop and how many more we will get before the end of 2019? Obviously, the holidays are awful for political fundraising as people are busy with plans and tuning out the news. Plus, most donations are going to charities, not the non-deductible political campaigns.
Might be a bit of a stretch but I think Kamala Harris will drop out. Her campaign has been a mess, they’ve had to massively cut back staff and she just hasn’t been able to move in the polls.
I agree. The latest poll from her home state of California has her at 10%. If she fails to clear the 15% bar in any state, she won’t get any delegates. I rather suspect that she’ll prefer to not be the Jeb! Bush of 2020, and will drop out to avoid that humiliation.
Of course there are the inexplicable candidacies: Delaney, Messam, Bennet, Castro, Bullock. Who knows what they’re even thinking at this point, but they have to drop out at some time. I might even include Corey Booker on that list as well.
(Incidentally that California poll has Warren at 13%. If she can’t get any delegates from California, she’s toast.)
Don’t forget that, in the states with primaries/caucuses before April 1, only about 1/3 (the exact number is 8/23) of the delegates are “statewide”; the rest are divided up by (usually Congressional) districts, where the 15% rule applies just in that district to its delegates.
So far, only six candidates still qualify for the December debates:
Joe Biden
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Yang, Steyer and Gabbard are on the bubble. Booker’s not even close.
The only thing I care about is beating Trump. Nothing else matters in this election. If I had the power to unilaterally pick the Democratic nominee, and I had to choose between two candidates, one who had a perfect progressive platform and a 99% chance of winning, and one who was guaranteed to do absolutely nothing for four years but who had a 100% chance of winning, I’d pick the second guy without a moment’s hesitation.
With that in mind, I think Warren should drop out. She’s polling reasonably well among Democrats at the moment but the Pocahontas thing is going to sink her. Biden should drop out too. I’m convinced his lead is almost entirely based on name recognition and his association with Obama. It certainly isn’t because of his debate performances. He’s had five opportunities to persuade people he’s the right man for the job but the only thing he seems to be persuading people of is that he’s going senile.
Bernie should drop out, too. I love Bernie. Politically, he’s my favourite candidate and, unlike Biden, age doesn’t seem to have dulled his faculties one bit. But he needs to face facts. He’s almost 80, he’s just had a heart attack, and he’s a self-proclaimed socialist. None of these things are vote winners. I don’t like saying this, and a large part of me would like nothing more than to see him get the nomination. But I’m just not convinced he can win.
Castro, Gabbard, Harris, Klobuchar, Williamson, Bloomberg, Patrick, Delaney, and Yang should drop out. They’re not going to win the nomination, let alone the Presidency, and they know it. At this stage they’re just sucking attention Away from the viable candidates.
So that leaves who? Buttigieg? While I’d be overjoyed at the prospect of the first gay president, if we are looking for a sure win against Trump, I’m not sure he would be my first choice.
Long NYT (possible paywall) article about the failing Harris campaign. Just adds to my suspicion that she’ll be suspending her campaign sooner rather than later.
I think Booker’s done. Castro’s done. Yang, Steyer, and Gabbard will hang around and continue to gadfly their way into the primary season, but they’ll be blips on a radar screen.
Buttigieg looks strong but he’s got no chance with the African American vote - it is not going to happen. I don’t care if he wins in Iowa and NH; the moment the race heads south, it gets ugly for Mayor Pete. I worry that the longer he stays in the race, the more divisive a figure he will be. I actually like Pete, but it’s clear that the African American community does not, and will not. And I’d rather avoid a major rift between different elements of the party.
Kamala Harris scored a sucker punch in the first debate but has done absolutely nothing since. She’s not even all that popular among African Americans or in her home state of California. I don’t see a path forward.
This is basically a three person race between Biden, Sanders, and Warren…but watch out for Mayor Michael. He’s a long shot for sure, but he’s got the resources, and unlike Steyer, he has name recognition and experience in big league politics. Of course Bloomberg will also have some challenges with people of color going back to his days as NYC Mayor. But if he can successfully court at least some of that voting bloc, he has a snowball’s chance.
I read that one of her top staff is joining Bloomberg’s campaign. Once you see major defections, it’s pretty much over. What’s left at this point is deciding how to manage the money that’s left so that it can be used in future campaigns. She might be waiting to see if she qualifies for a smaller debate field, which might give her one last chance to get noticed. But she’s a long shot at this point.
I’m baffled as to why Klobuchar is still in the running. She made the December debate? What the hell? Does she still honestly believe she has a shot at this point?
Bloomberg may be crazy like a fox, parachuting in late in the game while the others spend their time trying to assassinate each other. We could end up with a billionaire-a-billionaire battle, in which case I’ll be asking my doc for anti-depressants.
If you like Bernie, then discuss his policies and inform people. You’re doing nobody any favors here by spreading the blatantly misleading and malicious narrative “hes too old, nobody likes socialism”.
He’s gay? Why don’t we start making the same attacks on him as they do Bernie then.
Nobodys going to vote for a gay man. Not going to pull trump supporters by running a gay person against him. Also since you’re running a centrist who had virtually 0 support from blacks in my home state, you’re losing tons of votes that either go towards independents, or that just aren’t cast.
However I can’t stop there like most people do with Bernie, I’ll talk substance. Theres no such thing as a M4A or choice. You either, A) expand medicare to cover the things insurance does and more, or B) You don’t. The whole point is to diminish private reliance and push private insurance into grey areas where certain treatments like cosmetics aren’t covered. Any candidate, running on a non-M4A platform is not going to get the nomination it’s that simple feel free to disagree but you’re wrong, and that’s an assertion I’ll stand by and put money on.
A second long article about Kamala Harris’ failing campaign from WaPo. Since it’s Black Friday, I assume both this article and the NYT articles were written earlier and released now since November fundraising is coming to an end.
Was the ‘S’ at the end of candidateS a typo? You’ve eliminated everyone even close to 1% polling except Buttigieg.
The other Mayor, Pete, is now ranked as 3rd-likeliest to be Elected in November according to Betfair.com:
Trump 42%
21% Biden 12%
20% Buttigieg 10%
13% Sanders 8%
16% Warren 7%
8% Bloomberg 5%
4% H. Clinton 3%
3% Yang 2%
Pence 2%
Haley 2%
2% Harris 1%
1% Klobuchar 1%
1% Gabbard 1%
1% M. Obama 1%
The first number is chance to win the D nomination; 2nd number is chance to become POTUS. (Betfair offers bets on two former First Ladies whom Predictwise doesn’t deign to include in its summary.)
Mayor Pete cannot win without Black and Latino support, and he’s simply not going to get it. Buttigieg is a darling with educated white progressives, which might give him a boost in very white Iowa and NH, but that’s where the party ends.
